TCU fans are undoubtedly still recovering from their decimation in the national championship at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs, despite recording one of their best seasons in program history.
However, I am here to provide TCU fans with some hope – even immediate hope – although it may seem bleak at the moment.
TCU basketball has not enjoyed the success that they envisioned when they hired Pitt head coach Jamie Dixon back in 2016 – to his alma mater, no less. In six seasons, Dixon has led the Horned Frogs to the NCAA tournament only twice – in 2018 and last season in 2021.
This year, Dixon has the Horned Frogs building off the momentum created in last season’s NCAA tournament. TCU sits at no. 14 in this week’s AP poll and has put together an impressive 14-3 record, despite playing in the nation’s toughest conference – the Big 12.
TCU showed flashes of the progress and the vision Jamie Dixon brought to TCU in ‘16 during the 2022 NCAA tournament. The Horned Frogs came into the tournament as a nine seed – matching up against eight seed Seton Hall. TCU ran all over the Pirates – defeating them 69-42. The score disparity between two teams assumed to be on relatively even playing fields gave us a glimpse of the potential TCU held, and still holds.
After advancing to the second round, TCU squared up with no. 1 seed Arizona. The Frogs came into their second-round matchup with a little bit of magic – and a lot of swagger – and they needed it all to compete with one of the nation’s best – Arizona.
Led by sophomore guard Mike Miles Jr., TCU gave Arizona everything they could handle, with the game sent to OT after a deep Bennedict Mathurin three-pointer caught nothing but net. Eventually, TCU lost 85-80, but the Horned Frogs finally created some momentum that they could build off of for the following season; but, even more importantly, they returned nearly their entire rotation.
The only outstanding questions were surrounding Mike Miles’s future and whether he would return to school or head off to the NBA. In the end, Miles returned to Fort Worth for his junior season – leaving plenty of promise for what the Horned Frogs’ season would hold in 2023.
Now – a couple weeks into conference play – the Horned Frogs are strongly in the bracket predictions and have hopes of a Big 12 regular season and conference tournament title. With outstanding athletes throughout their rotation, they run more fluently and more efficiently than any team in the nation, and turning the ball over against them only ignites them more.
They are balanced throughout their roster – and while Mike Miles Jr. is the quintessential “guy” – they have an array of players capable of stepping up to make a big play.
Big man Eddie Lampkin Jr. (6’11, 263 lbs.) is one of the biggest – literally and figuratively – forces in the entire nation in the interior, and his toughness inspires his teammates game-in and game-out. Small forward Emmanuel Miller has elevated his play in his second year with the program, as the former Texas A&M transfer averages just shy of 15 ppg for the Horned Frogs and is a force on both sides of the ball – most notably in transition.
Jamie Dixon has finally gotten all of his recruits and developed them in a system of his own; in short, he has the Horned Frogs firing on all cylinders. I encourage – if not beg – everyone to sit down and watch TCU play basketball.
The only way I can describe it is as such: beautiful, controlled AAU basketball.
They play basketball like a track meet, yet they still have the composure to make the correct decisions on the court. It’s a type of basketball that can give any team in the nation fits – ask Kansas State, who recorded 20 turnovers against the Frogs. TCU basketball is a thing of beauty, and I would not be surprised to see them make some serious noise in March.
The patient wait forced upon college football fans from the semifinal games to the national championship is finally over, as tonight we will see TCU face off against defending-champion Georgia for all of the marbles.
This year’s national championship will take place in Sofi Stadium in Los Angeles- and unlike during any Rams or Chargers game – the stadium will be rocking – regardless of the ineptitude that was the decision to prohibit tailgating.
Both teams enter the championship coming off of nerve-wracking semifinal games, as Georgia beat Ohio State 42-41 on a missed field goal as time expired, and TCU was able to hold off Michigan, 51-45. Both of these semifinal games – as I promised you all they would be – were absolute electricity and created the best pair of semifinal matches in the Playoff’s history.
While our mouths were left watering after these two games, tonight’s national championship may leave much to be desired.
The semifinal matchups were seeded perfectly from a fan’s perspective. TCU v Michigan and UGA v Ohio State both projected to be intense, competitive games, and they absolutely delivered. However, the UGA v TCU matchup is skewed, and it is skewed heavily in the ‘Dawgs favor.
Georgia is currently 13.5-point favorites, with the line only going up as the day has gone on. A 13.5-point spread is the largest we’ve seen any team favored by in the national championship game since the inception of the CFP in 2014, and it’s the largest we’ve seen for a reason.
The Bulldogs enter this game after winning an all-time classic against Ohio State – a game in which they found themselves down double-digits in the fourth quarter. The ‘Dawgs -being as complete a team as they are – hadn’t faced a test of this caliber all season. Ohio State gave them fits, and Georgia was still able to come back and win that game.
You take that experience – coupled with the experience of head coach Kirby Smart and returning quarterback Stetson Bennett – and you’ve created the monster that will be Georgia in the national championship game.
Georgia already had the most complete roster in football – and now that they’ve gotten a taste of what a loss would feel like – are going to play with a chip on the shoulder – the same way they did last year when they won the national championship following a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship.
Expect to see the Georgia Bulldogs we’ve seen all season, and don’t let your vision be clouded by the two semifinal games, the ‘Dawgs will roll.
While TCU has put together a magical season in coach Sonny Dykes’ first year at the helm, the magic almost always dies out, and, for TCU, the magic will finally end tonight. The talent across Georgia’s roster is simply too much for TCU to handle, and I feel as if all of America knows this, yet the magic of the Horned Frogs and the likeability of Max Duggan has created a façade in people’s minds that they have what it takes to pull off another upset.
The Michigan upset in itself was fluky, as we saw an immense amount of momentum-shifting plays and questionable calls go in TCU’s favor, and they still barely squeaked out the win. TCU has done the unthinkable this year – going from preseason unranked to playing in the national championship game – and they should be proud of that tremendous effort, but no magic can save them tonight.
This college football season has been one of the more entertaining in recent years, yet the only boring part of it has been the ‘Dawgs utter dominance in games we were expecting to provide us with shootouts.
I fear for us all that once again, the Georgia Bulldogs are going to display sheer dominance, and the hope in our hearts that TCU can pull off the upset will be relinquished even before halftime.
The culmination of the Heisman race has gone and passed, as we saw USC sophomore quarterback phenom Caleb Williams bring home the Heisman trophy Saturday night. This year’s Heisman race was wildly unpredictable, as we all expected the intense battle for the illustrious trophy to be waged between Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud; however, we saw players enter the Heisman conversation week after week that oddsmakers could have never predicted.
In a season where there was arguably no clear winner, I expected to be dealt a diverse final Heisman ballot. Instead, we were left with four quarterbacks – all of whom play for top-10 teams. It was childish of me to expect a versatile ballot – one that highlights various positions across the field – as it has been the Heisman’s M.O. for multiple years to focus on exceptional quarterback play. While yes – quarterbacks of top teams in the nation are often the most valuable players – the Heisman is not an MVP award. Instead, it is given to the nation’s “most outstanding player,” verbatim from the Heisman Trophy’s mission statement.
This year, I believe it was clear that the four quarterbacks sent to New York were not the four most outstanding players in college football. While there are plenty of gripes to be had over multiple players missing out on their invitation to the Heisman ceremony, I believe that there is one player who has been overlooked throughout the entire season – most likely due to the inevitable quarterback bias that exists in college football.
Many college football fans were outraged over Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker’s snub as a Heisman finalist, and, while I have shared that outrage, I believe another Volunteer is more deserving of that distinguished honor. Wide receiver Jalin Hyatt was the most electrifying player in college football this season, and his play is what catapulted the ‘Vols to that coveted no. 1 ranking.
While many agree with my claim of Hyatt’s electricity, most doubt the legitimacy of his Heisman campaign. To be invited to the Heisman ceremony, you have to check three boxes: a stat-line that separates itself from the rest of the players at your position, an impactful player on a winning team, and a coveted, nationally-recognized “Heisman Moment.”
Jalin Hyatt’s dominance at the wide receiver position was apparent, and while other receivers such as Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. may have had more highlight catches, Hyatt’s body of work game-in and game-out emerged as the best amongst wide receivers. Hyatt compiled a season stat-line of 1,267 receiving yards on 103 receptions for 15 touchdowns. Hyatt ranks fourth in the nation in receiving yards and is tied for first with Houston wide receiver Nathaniel Dell in receiving touchdowns.
Hyatt’s stat-line is remarkable – earning him the Biletnikoff award, which is given annually to the nation’s best receiver. Hyatt compiled these stats whilst playing in the SEC – the most competitive conference in the nation – and this season-long display of greatness should have warranted an invitation to the Heisman ceremony in New York this past Saturday.
If the stat-line itself did not sell you on Hyatt’s Heisman case, then the impact he exuded on one of the nations’ top teams should. Tennessee – for the first time in what seems like forever – held the no. 1 position in the AP Poll, and, if it wasn’t for a late-season blunder on the road at South Carolina, would have seen themselves in the playoff for the first time in program history. The criteria for a Heisman contender holds that they play on one of the nation’s top teams, and it is clear that Tennessee is one of the nation’s very best.
Hyatt broke the single-season receiving touchdown record for Tennessee and – entering the bowl game – has a chance to break the single-season receiving yards record as well. The Volunteers’ program is one with an illustrious history, and Hyatt’s breaking these records as a junior continues to amplify his effect on this Volunteers team. A program that has been attempting to solidify itself as a top team for all of my lifetime saw this become a reality due to Hyatt’s performance – a Heisman-worthy claim in my eyes.
Finally, Hyatt’s infamous “Heisman Moment.” While the majority of people see the Alabama v. Tennessee game as Hendon Hooker’s “Heisman Moment,” I believe that this game highlighted Hyatt’s immense skill and should be recognized as his own HM.
We saw Caleb Williams have his moment – striking the Heisman pose against UCLA. Max Duggan’s moment came with his 98-yard drive against Kansas State that consisted of only Max Duggan rushes, while CJ Stroud missed out on his chance after a lackluster performance against Michigan. Lastly, Stetson Bennett never really had one because of Georgia’s dominance against every opponent on their schedule.
However you chalk it up, Hyatt’s performance against Alabama was a more compelling Heisman Moment than any of the other finalists’. In one of Tennessee’s biggest games in program history – over a team that has thoroughly dominated them each year in Alabama – Hyatt put up a performance unlike any I can recall from a wide receiver. Hyatt went for six catches, 207 yards and a whopping five touchdowns. Hyatt single-handedly changed the game, and this individual performance against a Nick Saban-led Alabama put America on full notice.
He won that game for Tennessee, and is the reason that Volunteer football may continue to ascend toward powerhouse-status in years to come. A game of that magnitude – with a performance of that degree – is the epitome of a Heisman Moment, and it is a terrible shame that his performance was attributed more to the quarterback – evidently eliminating his Heisman potential.
Jalin Hyatt was one of the four most outstanding players in the nation this year and fits all the criteria of a Heisman candidate. If you don’t believe me, you are simply another victim to the quarterback bias that exists in college football.
At last, the final college football rankings have been released, and the culminating matchups to a chaotic season are solidified. Georgia comes in as our unanimous no. 1 seed after another absolutely dominant season, finishing with a perfect 12-0 record capitalized with an emphatic 50-30 SEC Championship win against LSU.
At the no. 2 spot, we have Michigan – who used a strong second half to outduel Purdue in the Big Ten Championship. Following the Wolverines is TCU, who despite losing to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship in heartbreaking fashion – on the heels of a failed fourth and goal conversion from the one-yard line – remained at the three spot.
Then – sliding back into the playoff at the four – is the Ohio State Buckeyes – the beneficiary of an extraordinary second half performance from Utah against previously fourth ranked USC in the Pac 12 Championship.
This playoff has the greatest potential of any I’ve seen to provide two competitive semifinal games. You would think the playoff would yield at least one year of both semifinal games being competitive, but, since the inception of the playoff in 2015, at least one of the semifinal games each year has been won by 17 or more points.
This year, Georgia v. Ohio State and Michigan v. TCU both appear to have the potential to deliver electric results. Now, whether the public agrees with me on that remains to be seen, but through my predictions I will detail why America will be the winner of these playoffs.
No. 1 Georgia v. no. 4 Ohio State
This year’s Peach Bowl will feature the two most star-studded college football rosters this season has to offer. Each squad is littered with NFL talent, and this matchup is poised to deliver the game of the year. Before the Buckeyes’ loss to Michigan, many pegged these two as the best teams in the nation, as they had sat no. 1 and no. 2 for the majority of the season. Although Georgia’s no. 1 ranked designation is deserved, I am going to be the brave man who rolls with the Buckeyes to upset the top ranked ‘Dawgs.
Georgia has played a flawless season. Their one competitive game was an early season contest against Mizzou – which they won, 26-22. The problem with the ‘Dawgs’ domination is that they haven’t faced true adversity this year. Last year, we saw Alabama upset Georgia in the SEC championship – a loss that certainly fueled the revenge-seeking Bulldogs when they later played Alabama in the national championship – a game which they won, 33-18.
This year, the ‘Dawgs haven’t had that test. They haven’t been given a reason to play with a chip on their shoulder, and it worries me if I’m a Georgia fan. While they have stomped top teams like Tennessee and Oregon, Ohio State possesses that limitless talent the Bulldogs are used to only having themselves.
Now, people are surely worried about Ohio State’s ability to stop the Georgia offense after we saw Michigan gash them for 45 points. My take on this: college football is an unpredictable sport, and with that unpredictability comes the infamous big plays that seemingly decide college football games on a weekly basis.
In the Michigan v. Ohio State game, the former only totaled 181 yards on 55 out of 60 plays. In comparison, the other five plays totaled for a whopping 349 yards. Ohio State was completely gashed (and exposed) – almost in a way that feels impossible for it to repeat itself. The Buckeyes are coming into the playoff with a chip on their shoulder, and that excitement over getting into the playoff is going to be channeled into Ohio State’s best performance of the year.
After hearing the emotion from quarterback C.J. Stroud in his postgame presser following the Michigan loss, this Buckeyes offense is ready to go ballistic and will match Georgia’s tenacity unlike any opponent this season – eventually uplifting them to a spot in the national championship game.
Winner: Ohio State
No. 2 Michigan v. No. 3 TCU
While the rumblings of TCU as a fraudulent team remained consistent all season, the Horned Frogs and their “Hypnotoad” magic have found themselves in the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history. They will face a Michigan team who comes into this game with palpable momentum – having easily won the Big Ten Championship game to cap off an undefeated season. This matchup feels like a best case scenario for the Horned Frogs.
While the criticism of quarterback Max Duggan’s team isn’t fully justified, a matchup against Georgia would have been a nightmare situation for the Frogs and America. TCU and Georgia win games in completely different ways, and, with the talent level UGA possesses, Georgia would have overpowered TCU in the dominating fashion we’re used to witnessing in our no. 1 v. no. 4 matchups. Thankfully, the committee kept the Horned Frogs at the three seed and they’ll face the Wolverines instead.
This season, Michigan has had a particularly weak strength of schedule. Their non-conference opponents consisted of Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn, and they only have two ranked wins. When you compare the Big Ten to the Big 12, the parity in the Big 12 sticks out as opposed to the top-heavy Big Ten. This allowed for TCU to be tested week after week. They never expected to waltz into a game and ease their way to a W; they knew they’d have to earn it.
TCU is battle-tested, and after watching the Kansas State game, it’s apparent they’re led by a quarterback who is battle-tested. Although I love the spot TCU finds themselves in here, I think Michigan has the talent and coaching to outlast the Horned Frogs, but don’t fall victim to the projected blowout. The Horned Frogs are legit and will find themselves in this game come the fourth quarter.
Winner: Michigan
National Championship: No. 2 Michigan v. No. 4 Ohio State
College Football’s greatest rivalry – on the biggest stage – is something all fans should be rooting for. A game of epic proportions headlined by an Ohio State revenge storyline projects for one of the greatest natty’s of all time. Just when you thought the stakes couldn’t be any higher, expectations have been exceeded once again.
My projection for this game is simple: if we get here, the Buckeyes will not lose to Michigan again. I know that Michigan dominated them previously, but with the statistic I detailed earlier regarding the big play yards and from watching these two teams weekly, I wholeheartedly believe Ohio State is the better team.
If given another chance at Michigan, they will capitalize – especially coming off of an upset of no. 1 Georgia. The Ohio State Buckeyes have been destined for the national championship this year, and America should be thrilled that the Buckeyes have snuck back in. It’s show time in college football, and Ohio State is ready to shine under the game’s brightest lights.
As the college football season rounds the final corner, the playoff picture becomes clearer by the week. Tennessee and North Carolina found themselves as the latest casualties to the brutality that is college football, as Tennessee was routed by unranked South Carolina and UNC experienced an epic collapse to Georgia Tech after leading 17-0. Losses by teams once considered playoff contenders have continually built up, and now we’re left with only a handful of teams who have a fighting chance to find themselves in the coveted four come the final playoff rankings. Here are my rankings of the seven teams which I believe have a chance based on how I feel their playoff odds stack up against each other, and I’ve included a “security” level for each team in regards to their playoff spot.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs defeated Kentucky on the road by a final score of 16-6. The Bulldogs offense sputtered, putting up a measly one touchdown. However, what won the ‘Dawgs their championship last year is still the driving force: the defense. Led by defensive tackle Jalen Carter and cornerback Kelee Ringo, this Georgia defense has been stout all year, and the combination of this unit and an efficient offense has the ‘Dawgs sitting as the top ranked squad with an 11-0 record. Georgia finishes the season with “rival” Georgia Tech and no. 6 LSU in the SEC Championship, and it would take a loss in both games for Kirby Smart’s team to play themselves out of playoff position.
Security: Locked
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State remains undefeated and dominant. They did have a minor setback this week – shockingly losing to Maryland at halftime – yet they still went on to win the game 43-30. Ohio State has flown under the radar – relatively, of course – all season, mainly due to Georgia’s utter dominance, but also because everyone expects them to beat whoever their opponent is on any given week. They’ve become boring in a sense.
Ohio State has been a double-digit favorite in every game this season, and they have beaten every team by double-digits. Wins against no. 18 Notre Dame and no. 11 Penn State are the only pieces of Ohio State’s resume that particularly stand out; however, they pass the eye test week after week with the immense amount of talent their roster possesses. While all this is great, the test of the year comes this week as Michigan visits The Shoe. The winner of this game will make the playoff, while the loser will be at the hands of the committee. Win and you’ve secured your spot off of college football’s greatest rivalry – is there anything else a fan of these two schools could ask for?
Security: It’s up to you, but you also might get lucky
3. Michigan Wolverines
Bret Bielema’s Fighting Illini gave the Wolverines a run for their money for the first time this past week, a game that the latter won on a last second field goal. Michigan is in a similar position to Ohio State, an undefeated team with a slightly worse resume. However, judging between the superior track record is irrelevant in this case, as the two rivals will play each other in the final week of the season to determine who will play in the B10 Championship, and inevitably who will secure a playoff spot.
I will say, however, that the belief from the committee is that Michigan isn’t as good as Ohio State, as they have been ranked behind them all season. Therefore, it is more important for Michigan to win “The Game” this upcoming Saturday to keep their playoff chances steady. However, a one-loss Michigan can easily find themselves in the playoff.
Security: It’s up to you, but you also might get lucky
4. TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs seem to possess the magic that fuels unexpected playoff runs, as they narrowly escaped an upset bid once again – this time on the road at Baylor. The Horned Frogs’ playoff outlook is simple: win and you’re in – a motto it seems they’ve been following all season and one that has led them to their undefeated record – despite endless nail-biting games. They finish their season at home against a disappointing, yet gritty Iowa State team before facing either no. 15 Kansas State or no. 24 Texas in the Big 12 Championship.
While many doubt the Horned Frogs’ legitimacy, you cannot deny the facts. What facts, you may ask? Well, TCU is undefeated in the Big 12, a performance that has always been rewarded with a playoff spot. What is unfortunate for TCU is that this is a relatively weak year for the B12. Currently, Kansas State is the only other ranked team within the conference, and a TCU loss in the championship game or a setback to Iowa State could result in them missing out on the playoffs. However, I believe as long as they win their conference championship game, we will see TCU in the playoff for the first time in history.
Security: Solid
5. USC Trojans
The USC Trojans find themselves in the most legitimate playoff contention they’ve been in all year. The rest of the PAC-12 has two losses and USC just picked up a massive win against cross-town rival UCLA to improve their record to 10-1. Caleb Williams has his squad playing ball like a top 4 team, but the Trojans still have challenges looming ahead over the next two weeks.
They have a home game against no. 18 Notre Dame – who seems to have rallied under Marcus Freeman after early-season struggles – before playing either no. 10 Oregon, no. 12 Washington, or no. 14 Utah in the PAC-12 title game. If USC is to win out, they will almost certainly be in the playoff, jumping most likely the loser of the Michigan v. Ohio State game. While the road is daunting, Trojan fans must feel ecstatic to hear their name uttered amongst the “big dogs” of college football once again.
Security: Need Perfection, Accomplishable Though
6. Clemson Tigers
Clemson is the team whom no college football fan wants to see in the playoff. They’ve been a top 10 team all year, yet it seems the infamous “eye test” proves to viewers as well as the committee that this team is not one of the top four in the nation. Yet, with the help of some late season chaos, Clemson nevertheless can find themselves in the playoff. With only one loss – a horrid one to Notre Dame on the road – the Tigers have a solid resume.
However, the ACC is incredibly weak and only has one other ranked team at the moment in North Carolina, whose loss to Georgia Tech potentially hurts Clemson’s resume (when they take on the ‘Heels in the ACC Championship). Nonetheless, this is college football, and late season drama involving a TCU loss, a USC loss, or a blowout of either Michigan or Ohio State in their matchup against each other could see the Tigers through to the playoff.
Security: Need Perfection and Chaos
7. LSU Tigers
Ah, the most polarizing player of the playoff contenders, the LSU Tigers. After starting their season with a loss to Florida State and then being routed by Tennessee at home, Tiger fans had already dismissed the Brian Kelly hire and were clamoring for Coach O’s return. However, Kelly rallied his team after bounce-back wins over Alabama and Ole Miss to win the SEC West, and now will see themselves face Georgia in the SEC Championship.
If LSU takes care of business this week against Texas A&M, then an SEC title game against Georgia would set them up for an opportunity to be the first two-loss team to make the playoff. Being champions of the SEC – the most dominant conference this year – and beating the most dominant team this year – Georgia – would undoubtedly result in LSU cracking the top four come selection day: a scenario no college football fan is ready for.
Security: You better start praying if you haven’t been
These seven teams will battle it out over the last two weeks to see who will earn coveted positions in the College Football Playoff, and a loss at any moment could result in a season’s worth of grind evaporating right before their eyes.
After Tennessee’s 27-13 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, many figured their dismal performance in a game of that magnitude would significantly weaken – if not eliminate – the Vols’ playoff hopes. However, college football is and will always be a source of never-ending unpredictability. Less than two weeks removed from their only defeat of the season, the Volunteers sit in an envious position. Using ESPN’s College Football Playoff Predictor and my own intuition, there are 11 teams who still have a chance to make the playoff. These eleven teams can be broken into three tiers: Tier 1 – the Georgia Bulldogs, Tier 2 – the “finish strong and you’ll be there” tier, and Tier 3 – the “need Armageddon-level chaos to have a chance.”
Normally, “tiers” imply more than one team, but the Georgia Bulldogs have played themselves into one of their own. Having only one hiccup all season – a game which they still won 26-22 at Mizzou – the ‘Dawgs have proven to be the best team in the nation once again this year. Outright dominance against Oregon in week 1, whom they defeated 49-3, and a defeat of former no. 1 ranked Tennessee has all but solidified the Bulldogs’ place in the playoff. It would require an absolute flounder from Kirby Smart and co. to play themselves out of the playoff, and even a loss to LSU in the SEC Championship game would still likely earn them a spot in the top four come decision day. Tier 2 is where the meat of the true contenders lies.
These teams – granted they take care of business over inferior opponents to close the season – will be wholly in the mix come decision day. Currently, these teams consist of Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Tennessee, Clemson, USC, and LSU. Out of all these tier 2 teams, only one doesn’t control their fate when it comes to playing in their conference’s championship game: Tennessee. Finally, tier 3 consists of teams who are merely grasping onto the edge of the cliff, waiting for the hand of chaos to lift them up and into the playoff: Oregon, Utah, and UNC.
Now, how do these various playoff contenders relate back to why Tennessee’s loss to Georgia is beneficial for the Volunteers? Tennessee’s resume is one of the most impressive in the nation. Holding a 9-1 record, the Vols have compiled wins over ranked teams such as Alabama, Pitt, Florida and Kentucky, and secured a 40-13 beatdown over current no. 6 LSU in Baton Rouge. Tennessee doesn’t just have good ranked wins, they have DOMINANT ranked wins. Tennessee will finish the season with games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, two opponents they should handle with ease. Then, they’ll restlessly wait to see where the committee will put an 11-1 SEC team – featuring wins in a few of the biggest games of the year and only one loss to the best team in the nation.
Seeing how impressive Tennessee’s resume will end up being, let’s now compare it to the other teams we’ve mentioned today and take an honest look at their chances to make the playoff. Starting in tier 3, North Carolina is the unheralded wild card of the playoff picture. Led by Heisman candidate and freshman Drake Maye, UNC has compiled a 9-1 record; if they were to win out and defeat Clemson in the ACC Championship game, they would garner sincere respect from the committee. A 12-1, Power Five conference champion surely would earn a spot in the college football playoff in any other year. However, UNC’s resume is extremely weak. The ACC is having its worst year in recent memory, and the Tar Heels’ zero ranked wins and 13-point loss at the hands of Notre Dame would presumably keep them out of the top four. Also, their out-of-conference schedule consisted of FAMU, Appalachian State, and Georgia State: unimpressive to say the least. At the end of the day, I firmly believe one-loss Tennessee would make the playoff over one-loss UNC, barring utter domination from UNC in the ACC Championship game.
Next, let’s analyze the myriad PAC-12 teams still in perennial playoff contention whom Tennessee would need to outlast. Currently, the Pac-12 has four teams within the top 15 – making it an unusually strong season for the self-proclaimed Conference of Champions. However, the PAC-12 may have played themselves out of the playoff once again after Oregon suffered defeat to Washington 37-34 Saturday night. Both Oregon and Utah now have two losses, and in the seven-year history of the playoff, we have never seen a two-loss team in the playoff. I highly doubt that this trend will end at the hands of a two-loss PAC-12 conference champion.
Moving onto tier 2, we’ll stay in the PAC-12 with Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans. USC has the greatest chance to solidify themselves as the top PAC-12 team and make the playoff. Their only loss of the season came at Utah, where they lost a 43-42 heartbreaker. However, the Trojans have their greatest tests of the season looming ahead, with games at no. 16 UCLA and then at no. 18 Notre Dame, and then against whomever they face in the PAC-12 Championship. The Trojans certainly need to remain a one-loss team to keep them in good standing with the committee, as they have no ranked wins up to this point in the season. Ultimately, I believe the PAC-12 will play themselves out of the playoff, and we’ll be looking at the final rankings saying “man, the PAC-12 was really good this year, but I don’t think any of these teams are one of the top four teams in the nation.”
Now, we’re left with Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Clemson, and LSU, all vying with Tennessee for those final three spots. The one outcome that would undoubtedly ruin Tennessee’s chances at the playoff is if LSU were to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Even with LSU being a two-loss team and having been dominated by Tennessee at home, the winner of the SEC has – and always will – make the playoff. However, LSU is not going to beat Georgia, and although Brian Kelly has done a remarkable job in his first year, it feels silly to even entertain the idea.
Now, what about Clemson? The Tigers finish their season with home games against Miami (FL) and South Carolina, both of which will presumably be wins. If Clemson beats UNC in the ACC title game, they’ll have quite a compelling case, but is it more compelling than that of Tennessee? Clemson had good wins on their resume, but Wake Forest and Syracuse falling out of the Top 25 turned those “good” wins to simply “solid, we expected that result” wins. The ACC as a whole has been so incredibly weak that a one-loss Tennessee truly should get in over a one-loss, conference champion Clemson. However, we’ll keep Clemson on the backburner for now.
Through this long process of elimination, we are left with six teams vying for four spots: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Clemson, and Tennessee. Ohio State and Michigan, both members of the Big 10 East division, will essentially play for a guaranteed playoff spot in “The Game.” The loser of the rivalry will be sitting in a similar position to Tennessee: a one-loss, non-conference champion team who’s been dominant all season. However, Tennessee’s resume would prevail over both of these teams. Tennessee’s wins over LSU and Alabama hold a greater weight than whoever loses the Michigan v. Ohio State game, as that team’s top win on their resume will have come against #11 Penn State.
Then there’s TCU, who controls their own destiny at the moment and has a clear path to the playoff. If TCU is a zero or one-loss Big 12 Champion, they would likely secure a spot over Tennessee. This would lead to Tennessee, Michigan, and Clemson competing for the final spot behind Georgia, Ohio State, and TCU. However, if TCU stumbles and drops the Big 12 championship game, Tennessee’s resume would most likely prevail, and the Vols would get a coveted playoff spot for the first time in program history while Clemson and TCU battle for the fourth spot.
The true playoff contenders in my head currently sit as Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Tennessee, and Clemson. Your locks are Georgia and Michigan/Ohio State, and then two spots for three teams. The worst possible scenario for Tennessee is TCU and Clemson winning out and winning their respective conferences. Even if that is the case, the argument between Clemson and Tennessee would be intense. I would still lean Tennessee, and I believe the committee would too.
While there are still substantial hypotheticals that need to fall into place for the Volunteers to secure a playoff spot, I truly believe that Vols fans will see themselves in at least that no. 4 rank when the committee releases their final CFP rankings. While losing to Georgia may have been devastating, it could have been the best thing to happen to them. They’re going to waltz their way to an 11-1 record while other teams duke it out in conference championship contests. Tennessee has displayed undeniable tenacity and talent throughout the season, and their resume speaks for itself. The Volunteers are determined this year, and I can only imagine the scene in Knoxville when they’re given a chance on the game’s biggest stage in January.
The term “gritty” is thrown around at an alarming rate in the new era of sports media. Players and teams who don’t deserve that rare designation receive it far too often, leading to misguided perceptions of who is truly gritty. In my mind, there are three conditions that can deem a team gritty. First, they must be led by someone who harvests grit. Secondly, they need to be able to go toe-to-toe with any opponent on any given stage. Thirdly, they have to consistently hover around .500.
To create a culture of grit, you need to be led by grit. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell is what grit wishes it was. Campbell’s first gig as a head coach came at Toledo, a member of the MAC conference. For those unfamiliar with the MAC, it is the epitome of grit. Games played on Tuesday and Wednesday nights between teams scattered throughout the grittiest part of our nation – the Midwest – has contributed to the ironic label of “MACtion” by avid college football fans. Campbell has brought the culture he curated at Toledo to Iowa State, and inevitably he has the Cyclones competing year in and year out.
Throughout the season, Iowa State has played some of the closest, yet mind-numbing games imaginable. This year, they were participants in three (!) of the nation’s grittiest games. They pulled out a 10-7 win over in-state rival Iowa. They suffered unspeakable pain in a 10-9 loss to Kansas State, who sat as high as no. 13 in this year’s college football playoff rankings. The week prior, they endured a 14-11 loss to Kansas, who is already bowl eligible despite losing breakout quarterback Jalon Daniels after week 5. They competed with arguably the most complete team in the Big 12, taking Texas down to the wire in Austin. Now, they’re favored on the road against 6-3 Oklahoma State despite holding a 4-5 record. This team has the capacity to beat any team in the Big 12, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them spoil TCU’s season in Fort Worth come the last week of the season.
Finally, the Cyclones exemplify their grit through a 4-5 record. To be gritty, you cannot be good, as then you are simply considered a good team. Teams who are gritty use their grit to overcome their countless mistakes. Tied nationally for the 11th most field goal attempts per game at 2.1, this team specializes in red zone inefficiency, a consistent characteristic of gritty teams. They will rarely impress but they will always intrigue, and that might be why they have found themselves in the “Cheez-It Bowl” two years in a row.
Never count this team out, and let’s all hope Matt Campbell stays in Ames, IA for the rest of his career so that we can be continually blessed by their gritty mediocrity.
The Horned Frogs have Fort Worth, TX bouncing off the walls, as TCU has jumped out to their best start since joining the Big 12 back in 2012. In Coach Sonny Dykes’ first year at the helm, he has the Horned Frogs sitting at an impressive 9-0. Senior quarterback Max Duggan has circled the wagons and is hearing his name amongst TCU royalty in Andy Dalton and Trevone Boykin. The most recent College Football Playoff rankings saw the Horned Frogs pounce into that coveted fourth spot, behind ever so steady Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia.
The excitement in Fort Worth is real and justified. The Horned Frogs haven’t been within the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings since its inception in 2014, when TCU suffered heartbreak after the committee left them out of the final CFP rankings. Fortunately for the Horned Frogs this year, they have the chance to add a conference championship to their resume unlike their counterparts in 2014. Previously, the Big 12 had not implemented a conference championship game, and the Horned Frogs were jumped by Ohio State – who went on to win the National Championship – in the final rankings. Ask any TCU fan about that fateful year, and I’m sure they’ll tell you about the sour taste that still lingers in their mouth. TCU thus wound up in the Alamo Bowl, where they dominated #9 Ole Miss 42-3 – an absolute bittersweet moment for fans, as they only got a tease of how TCU would have stacked up against other top-10 non-conference opponents.
This year, TCU sits atop the Big 12 with a two-game lead over conference foes Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State, all of whom share a 6-3 record. With only three games remaining, TCU has a significant hold on a spot in the conference championship game. Their final contests come at Texas, at Baylor, and home against Iowa State to conclude the regular season. TCU’s undoubtedly biggest challenge comes this Saturday night, when they travel to Austin to face the Longhorns, who, despite their 6-3 record, have proven they can compete with the game’s best. If TCU is to win on Saturday, their chances at the college football playoff will increase dramatically. So why am I still skeptical of TCU’s chances at still being in the Top 4 come decision day?
Since the switch to a 4-team playoff, only one Big 12 team has made the playoffs – Oklahoma. If you’ve been following college football over the last decade, you’ve certainly heard complaints over the lack of parity in college football. Top programs Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, and Oklahoma have dominated the rankings and playoff games themselves. This utter domination has created an upper echelon in college football, and teams attempting to break into that upper echelon have returned lackluster results. In 2016, Michigan State made an appearance only to be run out of the building, as Alabama beat them 38-0. In 2017, Washington captured that coveted fourth spot, only to be dominated for four quarters by Alabama and turning in a final score of 24-7. Notre Dame found themselves in the playoff as the Independent path blessed them with the no. 3 seed. However, this proved to be deceitful excitement, as they were overwhelmed by Clemson in the semifinal and lost 30-3.
In 2021, the committee had forgiven Notre Dame for their abysmal performance 2 years prior, and they were given a shot at Alabama this time – only to lose 31-14. Most recently, Cincinnati secured the #4 seed, becoming the first non-power 5 conference to make the playoff. While new and exciting, the Bearcats inevitably went on to get decimated by the Crimson Tide 27-6. We’ve now witnessed eight years of the playoff, yet we’ve only witnessed five champions. The upper echelon of college football is an impenetrable fortress, protected by a 30-foot stone wall, archers and cannons. TCU is simply the latest army who believes that they have the ability to conquer this fortress.
Currently, TCU sits with a 17% chance to make the elusive College Football Playoff, possessing the sixth highest chance. While TCU controls their own destiny at the moment, the second they flounder, the committee will punish them. The prevalent lack of success of teams outside of the “upper echelon” has led to the committee holding these teams in a lesser light, in turn weakening their resumes and lowering their chances at the playoff. Hypothetically, if Oklahoma was undefeated at the moment, their playoff odds would be much higher due to their status in the committee’s eyes, and that’s a product of the lack of parity in college football and the upper echelon it has created.
So TCU fans, while your team holds all the cards for getting themselves into the playoffs, they better play their cards right, or else it’ll be heartbreak just like 2014.
Power Five Press 