By: George Ahearn

The Horned Frogs have Fort Worth, TX bouncing off the walls, as TCU has jumped out to their best start since joining the Big 12 back in 2012. In Coach Sonny Dykes’ first year at the helm, he has the Horned Frogs sitting at an impressive 9-0. Senior quarterback Max Duggan has circled the wagons and is hearing his name amongst TCU royalty in Andy Dalton and Trevone Boykin. The most recent College Football Playoff rankings saw the Horned Frogs pounce into that coveted fourth spot, behind ever so steady Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia. 

The excitement in Fort Worth is real and justified. The Horned Frogs haven’t been within the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings since its inception in 2014, when TCU suffered heartbreak after the committee left them out of the final CFP rankings. Fortunately for the Horned Frogs this year, they have the chance to add a conference championship to their resume unlike their counterparts in 2014. Previously, the Big 12 had not implemented a conference championship game, and the Horned Frogs were jumped by Ohio State – who went on to win the National Championship – in the final rankings. Ask any TCU fan about that fateful year, and I’m sure they’ll tell you about the sour taste that still lingers in their mouth. TCU thus wound up in the Alamo Bowl, where they dominated #9 Ole Miss 42-3 – an absolute bittersweet moment for fans, as they only got a tease of how TCU would have stacked up against other top-10 non-conference opponents.  

This year, TCU sits atop the Big 12 with a two-game lead over conference foes Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State, all of whom share a 6-3 record. With only three games remaining, TCU has a significant hold on a spot in the conference championship game. Their final contests come at Texas, at Baylor, and home against Iowa State to conclude the regular season. TCU’s undoubtedly biggest challenge comes this Saturday night, when they travel to Austin to face the Longhorns, who, despite their 6-3 record, have proven they can compete with the game’s best. If TCU is to win on Saturday, their chances at the college football playoff will increase dramatically. So why am I still skeptical of TCU’s chances at still being in the Top 4 come decision day? 

Since the switch to a 4-team playoff, only one Big 12 team has made the playoffs – Oklahoma. If you’ve been following college football over the last decade, you’ve certainly heard complaints over the lack of parity in college football. Top programs Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, and Oklahoma have dominated the rankings and playoff games themselves. This utter domination has created an upper echelon in college football, and teams attempting to break into that upper echelon have returned lackluster results. In 2016, Michigan State made an appearance only to be run out of the building, as Alabama beat them 38-0. In 2017, Washington captured that coveted fourth spot, only to be dominated for four quarters by Alabama and turning in a final score of 24-7. Notre Dame found themselves in the playoff as the Independent path blessed them with the  no. 3 seed. However, this proved to be deceitful excitement, as they were overwhelmed by Clemson in the semifinal and lost 30-3.

In 2021, the committee had forgiven Notre Dame for their abysmal performance 2 years prior, and they were given a shot at Alabama this time – only to lose 31-14. Most recently, Cincinnati secured the #4 seed, becoming the first non-power 5 conference to make the playoff. While new and exciting, the Bearcats inevitably went on to get decimated by the Crimson Tide 27-6. We’ve now witnessed eight years of the playoff, yet we’ve only witnessed five champions. The upper echelon of college football is an impenetrable fortress, protected by a 30-foot stone wall, archers and cannons. TCU is simply the latest army who believes that they have the ability to conquer this fortress. 

Currently, TCU sits with a 17% chance to make the elusive College Football Playoff, possessing the sixth highest chance. While TCU controls their own destiny at the moment, the second they flounder, the committee will punish them. The prevalent lack of success of teams outside of the “upper echelon” has led to the committee holding these teams in a lesser light, in turn weakening their resumes and lowering their chances at the playoff. Hypothetically, if Oklahoma was undefeated at the moment, their playoff odds would be much higher due to their status in the committee’s eyes, and that’s a product of the lack of parity in college football and the upper echelon it has created.

So TCU fans, while your team holds all the cards for getting themselves into the playoffs, they better play their cards right, or else it’ll be heartbreak just like 2014.