By: George Ahearn

National Championship day is here, and whilst this day would feel more exciting if they weren’t tipping off past 9:00 PM on a Monday, the buzz is palpable in the college basketball world. Tonight, we have No. 4 seed UConn matching up against No. 5 seed San Diego State. 

UConn’s run to the championship game entails five games of utter dominance. The Huskies have won their NCAA Tournament games by an absurd average of 20.6 points. This mark sits at third all-time since the tournament expanded to a field of 64. Dan Hurley’s squad has looked like the best team in the nation in every one of their tournament games, so, despite holding a four seed, a UConn appearance in the title game is of little surprise to the fans who have followed the Huskies this season and throughout the tournament. 

The Huskies are littered with NBA talent. Hurley spoke to this sentiment in a presser leading up to tonight’s game, and he mentioned how he felt his job is relatively easy due to three NBA talents on the Huskies roster. The presumed three players? Shooting guard Jordan Hawkins, “point forward” Andre Jackson Jr., and impactful freshman Donovan Clingan. There is also potential for the Huskies’ big man Adama Sanogo (20.2 ppg in the Big Dance) to hear his name called in the draft as well.

The Huskies have an immense talent level, and their dominance in this tournament has led people to chalking up tonight’s contest as an easy path to UConn’s third national championship since 2011. However, the idea that this San Diego State team will roll over on the biggest stage is unreasonable.

The Aztecs are being overlooked in this matchup for a plethora of reasons. To start, nobody is expecting a “mid-major” to beat what should be considered a unanimous Blue Blood in the national championship. 

Secondly, I feel people view the Aztecs’ path to the title game as soft due to their last two games and their slim margin of victory. They defeated No. 6 seed Creighton in the Elite Eight – thanks in large part to a favorable foul call that sent Darion Trammell to the line for two shots with under one second to play. Then, they faced a similar Cinderella story in FAU in their Final Four matchup, which they won on a buzzer-beating jumper from Lamont Butler. 

While a six and nine seed are atypical paths to a national title spot, SDSU was able to beat two deserving opponents – just like any other team – to make it here, and the discredit in this department is simply unjust. People also seem to forget that San Diego State dominated the No. 1 overall seed in Alabama in the Sweet 16 to get here – a team that many had slotted to win it all. 

All of this has led to an underrated narrative. 

When you get to the tournament and every game that you play is win or go home, the value of experience tends to become invaluable. For the Aztecs, this should be music to their ears. The average age of their starting lineup is 23 years old – higher than the average age for five NBA teams’ starting lineups.

With this experience comes resiliency – something that has been a key to victory for the Aztecs this tournament. They had a nail-biter against Creighton where they relied on their resolve to edge out a scorching Bluejays squad. 

Then, they further relied on their resiliency in their matchup against FAU. The Aztecs found themselves down double-digits in the second half, yet they refused to hit the panic button. They played the same style of basketball that had gotten them to the Final Four and were able to scrape by FAU.

Brian Dutcher’s team relies on their defense to win games. They held each of their tournament opponents – prior to FAU – to just over 57 points per game, and have ranked as a top-10 defense in KenPom rankings the entire season. If they are able to make this game more defensive-oriented and keep UConn from running away with the game early, we are in for a treat of a title game. 

In 2020 – the year in which the NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID – San Diego State owned a 30-2 record and finished sixth in the AP Poll. In the blink of an eye, the Aztecs’ best chance at reaching a Final Four was stripped from them. Two members of the 2019-20 San Diego State squad are leaders in the locker room for this year’s team: center Nathan Mensah and guard Adam Seiko.

Having an opportunity to solidify San Diego State in the history books – with a dominant season already washed away in unfortunate circumstances – means that Mensah and Seiko have clearly dialed in this previously bitter feeling and used it positively in their leadership approach. 

The Aztecs will not roll over, yet I am not going to sit here and call for a San Diego State victory. However, I do expect a heated contest compared to the routs given to us by UConn all tournament.

KenPom has the spread at SDSU +5 – two points lower than the +7 Vegas has for SDSU right now. If you were to bet this game, I would roll with Aztecs +7, but hesitantly. If UConn gets on them early, it may get ugly.