by George Ahearn

The contingent of college football fans imploring that the highest-ranked Group of 6* team does not deserve an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff may want to stop reading now—because this season, there may be two G6 teams that earn their way to the CFP.

The NCAA states “the 12-team College Football Playoff will include the five highest-ranked conference champions.” While this is often thought of to be the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC champions plus the highest-ranked Group of 6 Champion, this is not necessarily the case.

Instead, it is simply which five conference champions are ranked the highest in the CFP committee’s final poll. This season, we may see a unique scenario unfold in front of our eyes, one that could see the ACC’s champion excluded from the College Football Playoff.

As it stands, Duke is 5-4 overall but 4-1 in conference play, trailing only SMU (5-1), Pitt (5-1), Virginia (5-1) and Georgia Tech (5-1). The Blue Devils’ remaining schedule includes home games vs. UVA and Wake Forest and a trip down Tobacco Road to face UNC. According to The Sporting News, if Duke wins out, they will play for the ACC championship due to the tiebreaker rules.

While you may think that a Duke squad that accomplishes this feat would be ranked ahead of two G6 champions, let’s take a closer look.

Duke’s four losses include a 45-19 home thumping vs. Illinois, a 34-27 loss at Tulane, a 27-18 home loss to Georgia Tech and most recently a 37-34 defeat in Storrs, CT against a streaking UConn team. Even if Duke were to win out, beat No. 19 UVA and win an ACC title, it likely would not be enough to overcome those four losses.

So, if the hypothetical ACC Champion Blue Devils would not make the playoff, which conference champions would?

The American champion and the Sun Belt champion – if that team is James Madison.

The latest rendition of the College Football Playoff rankings was released Tuesday night, and as it stands, South Florida is ranked No. 24 and James Madison is unranked.

The Dukes sit at 8-1 with their lone loss coming in a non-conference road trip to Louisville early in the season. Their remaining schedule consists of home games vs. App State and Washington State, followed by a road contest at Coastal Carolina and then a presumed SBC title game.

In the American, the two teams with the best chances to face off in the conference championship game are USF and Tulane. USF owns a win at Florida and has dominated conference play outside of a three-point road loss to Memphis. If USF wins out, they will be ranked ahead of Duke.

If Tulane wins the American, they too would likely be ranked ahead of Duke, due to the head-to-head win they own over the Blue Devils from their game on Sept. 13.

While all of this is plausible, it still is relatively unlikely. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Duke a 15.2% chance to win out, USF a 50.9% chance and JMU a 46.7% chance. Disregarding each conference championships, there is a 3.61% that all three teams win out.

When you include the odds that all three would win their respective conference championships, the chances of this scenario playing out become even slimmer. However, if Tulane were to win the American, they could also find themselves ranked above Duke at season’s end, creating another path that would send two G6 teams to the Playoff.

If you’re a fan of these teams, don’t get your hopes up, but in the words of Jim Carrey…

“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

And yes – there is – just not a very big one.

*Group of 6 refers to the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, PAC 12 and Sun Belt conferences. The highest ranked conference champion from these six earns a bid to the CFP.