Category: William Smythe

Midseason CBB Takeaways: Purdue on the cusp of a U.Va. redemption year?

January 6th, 2024

By: William Smythe

As we all likely expected, parity has dominated the college basketball landscape. The transfer portal and NIL has evolved – whether you like it or not – to even the playing field, especially in conferences such as the Big East and Big 12 (cannibalization inbound). It’s grown increasingly difficult to take road games, in particular, as litmus tests for every squad hovering around the top 25; unless you’re U.Va., you can afford to drop a few away from home.

You could argue that the bottom five spots in the AP Poll could belong to twenty deserving rosters. The talent is stretched across the D-1 realm – including a surprise year from the Mountain West, who may field 4+ tournament teams – and surprises have abounded. However, there may be a massive gap between the top few or so teams and the “rest,” but that is still up for debate. Let’s begin with a team who is distancing themselves…

Purdue hasn’t lost a step from their 2022-23 regular season form

Fairleigh Dickinson overshadowed what was a masterclass in coaching from Matt Painter last season. The Boilermakers won both the regular season B10 title and the conference tournament, boasting arguably the school’s finest season up until disaster in March struck. This year, Purdue has returned with a vengeance. Painter, wisely enough, scheduled another brutal non-conference slate with contests against Tennessee, Marquette, Gonzaga and Arizona, alongside games against what-would-be weaker opponents in Xavier and Alabama.

The Boilermakers somehow escaped unscathed from the lion’s den on the 7’4 shoulders of Zach Edey – complemented well by sophomore guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. The former may just be the straw that stirs the drink for Purdue, having combined for 71 points in wins over then-No. 1 Arizona, Alabama and then-No. 4 Marquette.

The supporting cast matters if Purdue seeks to make a U.Va.-type championship run following their loss to FDU. Luckily for Painter, his team is multifaceted in a way unmatched by last year’s squad, good as they were. Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones has begun to emerge as a legitimate scoring threat alongside Loyer and the Smith, and the forwards are deep behind Edey. This seems to be the year for a Boilermaker run.

The Mountain West is churning out elite teams

By far the best G5 conference, the MW is poised to catapult up to five of their teams into the Big Dance. Led by Colorado State – who earned a six seed in March Madness two years ago – the conference has supplanted its western counterpart (the failing Pac-12) as the premier collection of teams west of the Mississippi. The Rams and the national runner-ups from last season – San Diego State – will likely stay within the top 25 for the duration of the season.

Nothing will be easy in the MW, even for the aforementioned two. New Mexico strung together 11 wins before falling at Colorado State in what was, for the most part, a highly competitive game. Utah State has the opportunity to leap into the Top 25 with a win at home tonight against the Rams (they’re -1.5), and a 13-1 Nevada should be a threat within the conference. I expect four teams to reach the Big Dance – the Rams, Aztecs, Aggies and Lobos – and the Wolfpack could continue their strong play and return to March for the first time since Eric Musselman.

The players in this conference, moreover, are dangerous. Colorado State’s Isaiah Stevens (17.4 PPG, 7.4 APG) is a surefire All-American candidate, and San Diego State’s Jaedon LeDee (21.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG) has improved tremendously after the departure of current Arizona forward Keshad Johnson. New Mexico’s Donovan Dent (16.3 PPG) is also a candidate for Most Improved, having risen to the top of a loaded backcourt as a sophomore.

Don’t be surprised if a Final Four team comes from the Mountain West.

Bluebloods North Carolina and Kentucky have shaken off preseason doubts

Kentucky’s season seemed headed for disappointment after the departures of NPOY Oscar Tshiebwe and freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston, among other transfers, yet the Wildcats’ freshmen crop is special. Enter Reed Sheppard, arguably the least talked about in the group yet the most impactful contributor for Calipari so far this season (he’s the X-factor). The Kentucky native is averaging 12.5 PPG – good for fourth on the team – while shooting 56% from three. He’s also averaged a mind-boggling 2.8 steals per game and is second on the team is assists per game (4.3).

Sheppard – alongside senior Antonio Reeves and a first-year guard duo of DJ Wagner and Rob Dillingham – has helped the Wildcats to an 11-2 start, putting to bed any concerns about their elite pedigree. There’s a brutal loss on their schedule, yes, but the seven-point home loss to UNC Wilmington a month ago is far behind Kentucky. Calipari’s squad has since beaten a No. 9 ranked UNC and recently upended a tricky Florida team on the road.

I do have to ask Reed Sheppard this, though: why foul a Gator late when you’re up four?

The Tar Heels have exceeded preseason expectations much like the Wildcats, standing in opposition to their preseason No. 1 rank last year – which turned into a rejected NIT bid at the end of the season. Much of the reason for Carolina’s reemergence has been the play of senior guard R.J. Davis, a first-team All-American in my eyes and perhaps the best pure scorer there is in college basketball. Davis – pressured less to take on point guard responsibilities with freshman Elliot Cadeau in the fold – is averaging a blistering 21.1 PPG and has made some jaw-dropping shots over the course of the year.

Graduate forward Armando Bacot remains the steady anchor of this roster, bolstered by several transfer additions – Notre Dame’s Cormac Ryan and Stanford’s Harrison Ingram – who may be replacing Brady Manek’s production in the aggregate. I expect the Tar Heels to run the table in the ACC so long as they pocket a win over Miami or Duke, a welcome thought for Carolina fans facing the “Gates of Hell-level Epitome of Brutality” after last season.

Alongside Kansas, traditional powers have performed thus far.
Why you should be excited about college basketball’s return

November 1st, 2023

By: William Smythe

Don’t get me wrong, college football is great. It’s hard to recreate the thrill of a fall Saturday once the season ends, and I often forget about “how good it truly was” in the post-NY6 era. However, college basketball is the key which unlocks arguably the greatest upcoming months for sports fans – November, December and January – with a non-conference slate awaiting us in short order. The season is arguably underway; preseason No. 9 Tennessee upended No. 4 Michigan State in a charity exhibition, No. 1 Kansas fell to No. 25 Illinois in Champaign and No. 14 Arkansas outlasted No. 3 Purdue in a raucous Bud Walton Arena.

In classic fashion, Louisville fell to D-II opponent Kentucky Wesleyan. No one’s seat is hotter than Kenny Payne.

Nonetheless, let’s unpack some of the reasons as to why it’s ok to pivot from college football for these upcoming weeks. The countdown to March officially begins Monday night.

Albeit controversial, the transfer portal continues to level the playing field

It makes sense to criticize the transfer portal. Arizona State’s Adam Miller is now onto his third school – having transferred after each season – while Hunter Dickinson requested NIL $ from suitors to convince him to leave Ann Arbor for his senior campaign. There are certainly examples of guys who leave for the wrong reasons, and it’s fair to question the prevailing notion of loyalty within college basketball. However, competition springs out of these off-season moves, and March becomes that much more hectic.

Mid-majors, thought to have suffered from the transfer portal as players seek enhanced NIL opportunities and big-time Power 5 ball, haven’t fallen into obscurity by any means. Dusty May’s Florida Atlantic dominated the C-USA and upset No. 4 Tennessee, No. 3 Kansas State and hung around with No. 5 San Diego State en route to their first Final Four appearance. Sure, March is March, but the Owls will hope to demonstrate that last season wasn’t a fluke (five total losses makes that case that much stronger) after retaining all but one significant contributor.

The portal giveth and taketh away. If you want to rebuild quickly, you now have the opportunity. If you need a plug-and-play guy who’s logged veteran minutes at a smaller school, he could be yours. Take Arkansas: the Razorbacks dipped into the portal and snagged five transfers who will all likely add value to Eric Musselman’s squad. Purdue prefers to build from within, Musselman from elsewhere. What we can all determine is that parity, via the transfer portal, is at the forefront.

The Champions Classic and the Maui Invitational

These few weeks are key “litmus tests” for teams hoping to ascend in the power rankings, and opportunities abound in non-conference tournaments such as the Champions Classic and the Maui Invitational. The former will pit preseason No. 2 Duke against No. 4 Michigan State, while No. 1 Kansas will take on fellow blue blood and the sixteenth-ranked Wildcats of Kentucky on Nov. 14. Will Duke live up to the preseason hype with their starting-five remaining intact, and will Kentucky’s freshmen core bring them back to the 2014-15 days when UK first-years reigned supreme?

The Maui Invitational, moreover, is an annual hit; many remember the 2019 final between Duke’s three-headed monster of Williamson, Barrett and Reddish and Gonzaga’s veteran core, who managed to upset the Blue Devils after a back-and-forth end to the second half. Four top-25 squads – No. 11 Gonzaga, Purdue, No. 6 Marquette, and No. 9 Tennessee – will take to the court from November 20-22, and don’t count out UCLA either. No need to get up from the couch when the Maui Invitational is televised.

I’m missing dozens of other non-conference tournaments. What is abundantly clear, however, is the quality of non-conference scheduling that teams have adopted in recent years, creating a perfect entry for college basketball fans who desperately need the sport back in their lives.

The Big East

I just love this basketball-only conference. Typically an afterthought to the Big Ten and ACC, the Big East burst onto the scene in 2022-23, sending five teams to the Big Dance and boasting the eventual National Champions in UConn. Shaka Smart’s Marquette, Sean Miller’s Xavier and then-Ed Cooley’s Providence all exceeded expectations in the regular season and made a name for themselves on the national stage. Don’t expect the hype train to die down either, especially with a coaching carousel sending George Mason’s Kim English to Providence and Cooley to a struggling Georgetown program.

Coaching legend Rick Pitino will now hope to restore St. John’s basketball glory even though his team fell to D-II Pace University in a buy game – yikes. Two legitimate contenders for first-team All-American honors – Marquette point guard Tyler Kolek and UConn center Donovan Clingan – returned to their respective schools and will take on larger roles (especially Clingan). After struggling last season with injury issues, look for Villanova to take a massive step in year three of Kyle Neptune’s tenure; the ex-Villanova assistant brought in four major transfers to complement All-American candidate Justin Moore and center Eric Dixon.

I don’t see much potential for Butler, DePaul and Seton Hall, sadly, but the rest of the conference looks poised to make some serious noise. In terms of superlatives, UConn will remain the top dog, Marquette will take a step back from their dream season, and Providence might just be the most polarizing (and exciting) team to monitor within the conference.

Get excited.
Heisman Power Rankings: Week 8

October 22nd, 2023

By: William Smythe

Frankly, this might shape up to be one of the worst Heisman races in recent memory. I’m speaking in terms of the talent level, not the competitiveness of the race itself. We’ve been fortunate enough to witness Heisman winners without a single blemish on their resumes – Lamar, Burrow and Kyler seemed to put together a masterclass every single weekend – and perhaps an unrealistic expectation now lies with college football’s most coveted award. Devonta Smith notwithstanding, it’s a quarterback’s world.

USC’s Caleb Williams looks to have squandered his chance to repeat, while a pack of above-average quarterbacks will fight and claw for the Heisman in the next few months. What I haven’t seen, however, is a bonafide “Heisman Moment” from any of these candidates below…well, one makes a slight case.

1. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

Penix’s resurgence out West is truly something to behold considering his awful injury history. The former Hoosier tore his ACL in both 2018 and 2020, suffered a joint injury in 2019 and then developed a shoulder issue in 2021. Last season was the lefty gunslinger’s first true healthy year, and he thrived. Now the frontrunner in the Heisman race, Penix is staring down a gauntlet of a Pac-12 schedule after struggling in an ugly, 15-7 win over a 1-6 Arizona State.

I feel as if I’ve been relatively negative thus far. Anyways, Penix is currently first in the nation in passing yards and is currently spearheading the fifth-ranked team in the nation, having already knocked off no. 9 Oregon on a last-second field goal miss from the Ducks. His wide receiving corps is second to none but maybe Ohio State, with Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan (still easing into things) all serious NFL prospects.

Penix holds the title of (perhaps) boasting a Heisman moment after his 302-yard, 4 TD performance against Oregon. A four-game stretch @ USC, vs. Utah, @ Oregon State and vs. Washington State in the Apple Cup will determine Penix’s candidacy once and for all. He deserves the first spot here, but not by much.

2. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

I definitely did not expect Daniels to find himself in the Heisman mix. The ex-Arizona State, dual-threat quarterback has put up some gaudy stats in his second year in Baton Rouge, and the sole case against his Heisman candidacy is the Tigers’ 5-2 record. Second in passing yards behind Penix, Daniels has tossed for five more touchdowns (25) while rushing for 521 yards and adding 5 TDs on the ground. He has a 414-yard, 4 TD performance against then-no. 20 Ole Miss to boot (albeit a loss) and absolutely shredded an ascending Missouri team with 389 total yards and four TDs in a 49-39 win on the road.

If LSU defeated Florida State or Ole Miss, Daniels would be #1 on this list. He has several opportunities to make his case even stronger – @ Alabama and vs. Florida in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party – but he can’t afford any more slip-ups. A three or four-loss Heisman winner is non-existent.

3. Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oklahoma

Another candidate for a Heisman moment, Gabriel led the surging Sooners to an upset win in the Red River Rivalry over then-no. 3 Texas. Another transfer (from UCF), Gabriel went for 398 total yards and 2 TDs against the ‘Horns as Oklahoma continues its incredible turnaround following a 6-7 finish to last season – Brent Venables’ first at the helm. There’s no bad game on Gabriel’s resume thus far, but is he doing enough?

A wide-open schedule featuring five unranked opponents bodes well for the Sooners and Gabriel’s candidacy. The Sooners almost slipped up against UCF this past week, winning 31-29 in a back-and-forth affair, so it’s probable that Venables’ crew doesn’t overlook the inferior opponents ahead. A road date against Oklahoma State in Bedlam is one to circle on the calendar, despite the Pokes’ woes this season.

Gabriel may need to stat pad in the next couple of weeks if he wants a shot at the Heisman. An undefeated, playoff bound Oklahoma would certainly propel him to the top of the list considering that Daniels (and in my opinion, Penix) won’t make it there, with the only real competition perhaps Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy or Florida State’s Jordan Travis – if the committee values a CFP appearance as a major factor.

4. Jordan Travis, QB, Florida State

Travis lags far behind the top-two in terms of production, yet his team continues to win. The highly-touted senior has finally orchestrated Florida State’s revival on the national stage, as the Seminoles hold the fourth spot in the AP Poll and have defeated two top-25 teams thus far: Duke and LSU (and Clemson-ish). Travis is consistent, not exceptional. I seriously doubt that he will take home the Heisman considering the Seminoles’ light schedule the rest of the way…he’ll need big outings against Miami and Florida to creep up the power rankings.

The benefit of a Keon Coleman-Johnny Wilson wideout duo is apparent, but Travis has proven he can get it done on the ground as well – he’s combined for 100 yards rushing and 2 TDs in the Seminoles’ two ranked wins. Perhaps there are still some injury concerns surrounding Florida State’s leader, but his production hasn’t necessarily dipped.

He’s still in the mix.

5. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

This is not a sexy pick by any means. In fact, McCarthy being here is a testament to the weak pool of Heisman candidates at this point in the season. Surprisingly, the two arguable favorites – USC’s Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye – have thrown their chances out the window following brutal performances against Notre Dame and Utah (for Williams) and Virginia, respectively. McCarthy is your typical game manager for a powerhouse B10 program that loves to rely on the run.

It’s pretty hard to overlook McCarthy’s worst game of the year – a 143 yard, 2 TD/2 INT performance against lowly Bowling Green. The Wolverines won comfortably, 31-6, yet on the shoulders of a classic Blake Corum showcase. What McCarthy does, however, is manage the pace of the game extremely well, knowing that his passing role is often secondary to the rushing attack of Corum and Donovan Edwards. He has a tendency to make big plays – especially considering his connection with WR Roman Wilson – but there’s nothing too Heisman-y about McCarthy.

Everything’s up in the air, so who knows. McCarthy could stealthily put together a few 200+, 3 TD games and find his way to New York.
Week 5 CFB Takeaways: Utah rudderless without Rising, ND hopes stay alive, and more

October 3rd, 2023

By: William Smythe

After a fire-filled (see BYU-Cincinnati) Friday night of college football, we all took our places on the couch the following day to settle in for a couple of noteworthy matchups: Colorado v. No. 8 USC, No. 17 Duke v. Notre Dame, and No. 1 Georgia v. Auburn, among others. While not as juicy of a slate as last week, I’d be remiss to overlook an uber-competitive spread of games that have once again created major changes in the polls. What is there to take away from Friday and Saturday?

Utah’s CFP hopes dwindling after sputtering against Oregon State

P5P’s very own, George Ahearn, may have seen this one coming – yes, I’m referring you to George’s betting article published last Wednesday. Oregon State’s road defeat to a hot Wazzu may have primed the now-15th ranked Beavs for a thunderous, Friday home win against a previously undefeated Utah, who held on by the skin of their teeth against UCLA and Baylor.

Now, it is becoming abundantly clear that Kyle Whittingham’s team will suffer every game that senior quarterback Cam Rising misses. Rising’s replacement – freshman Nate Johnson – has only tossed for 499 yards and 3 touchdowns through three starts after replacing the Utes’ Bryson Barnes. Against what has largely been a fierce Beaver defense, Johnson mustered a mere 101 yards through the air and completed only eight of 23 attempts – a completion rate of 34%. A potent Ute defense – which held Florida, Baylor and UCLA under 14 points – could not compensate for an offensive unit accumulating 198 total yards.

The Utes’ 21-7 defeat to Oregon State does not bode well for their playoff chances, even if Rising returns to the lineup as early as this week. Dates against No. 8 USC, No. 9 Oregon and No. 7 Washington loom on the schedule, with matchups against the Trojans and Huskies both on the road. Despite boasting a top-10 caliber front four on defense, the Utes will need Rising’s return to retain hope of finishing the season with two losses.

Notre Dame sabotages Duke’s first Gameday in Durham

Even with Pat McAfee there, the Blue Devils couldn’t pull off another program-altering win in Wallace Wade Stadium. Actually, they ended up falling in the worst way possible; down 14-13 with less than a minute remaining and facing 4th and 16, Irish quarterback Sam Hartman rolled to his right, scanned to no avail, and dashed 17 yards for a first down to keep the Notre Dame’s hopes alive.

Two plays later and junior running back Audric Estime scampered 30 yards to seal a 21-14 victory for the Irish, giving them a bounce-back win after last week’s heartbreaker against Ohio State. While Duke still had 30 seconds to march down the field and hope to break one open, quarterback Riley Leonard fell while sacked and suffered a high-ankle sprain in the loss – a major but not deafening blow for an ascending program.

Leonard will certainly miss several weeks of play but will appear later this season, hopefully in time to steer the Blue Devils to an ACC Championship berth. Notre Dame, meanwhile, can still finagle their way into the playoff if they can take down No. 8 USC at home next Saturday and wrest one away from Clemson on the road in early November. Their schedule is certainly a gauntlet, yet the win in Durham has saved the Irish from a catastrophic start to the year.

Despite the recent offensive lulls, this may be Notre Dame’s most complete unit since the Brady Quinn days.

SEC may be deeper and more competitive than expected

Much like the Pac-12, the Southeastern Conference may eat itself alive this year. With a vulnerable Alabama currently tied with A&M on the top of the pecking order in the SEC East – and LSU and Ole Miss close behind – the nation’s biggest and baddest conference will perhaps see unprecedented parity as the season progresses. In the West, Georgia, Mizzou and Kentucky are all 5-0, with the ‘Dawgs and ‘Cats having won two conference games already. Florida and Tennessee are dark horse candidates in the West, as it’s likely Mizzou doesn’t stay at the top for long.

Nonetheless, Kentucky just throttled a previously-ranked Florida team, while a 3-2 Auburn brought No. 1 Georgia to the brink at Jordan-Hare. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt do look to be the only real chumps of the SEC. It would be unwise to overlook a bottom-dwelling Arkansas once running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders fully returns from injury, and South Carolina has already proven to be pesky despite holding a 2-3 overall record.

Now, there are seven SEC teams ranked in the top-25 – the most out of any conference. Order has been restored. A&M could leap-frog into the top 20 following a win against Alabama, yet Mizzou, LSU and Kentucky are all at risk of dropping out if losses befall them Saturday (the ‘Cats will stay in if they keep things competitive with Georgia).
Week 4 CFB Roundup: Washington supremacy, ‘Bama bounce back and the ACC

September 24th, 2023

By: William Smythe

It’s been a while. College football is back, the Pac-12 (soon to be dissolved) is humming, and the top-25 will surely witness some massive changes following today’s outcomes. In arguably the most sought-after Saturday in years – outside of the College Football Playoff – we have a semblance of an idea of who may compete for the trophy. However, I’m still struggling to process the “cream of the crop” with the unlikely demise of the SEC and the unusual mediocrity of the Big Ten, even after Ohio State’s miraculous win over Notre Dame in South Bend. So, what have we learned thus far?

The state of Washington football is rock-solid

To clear the air, Washington State is still without a long-term home following the breakup of the Pac-12. An unfortunate sequence of events has now led to the no. 21 ranked Cougars enjoying a 4-0 start to the 2023 season, with Incarnate Ward transfer Cam Ward seeking Heisman aspirations in a do-or-die campaign for a seemingly doomed athletic program. It’s a shame that we are witnessing arguably the deepest Pac-12 lineup in recent memory, as six members of the conference found themselves in the most recent AP Top 25 poll. Colorado and UCLA did fall out of the rankings following their losses to Oregon and Utah, respectively, yet there’s still much to be celebrated out West.

The Cougars’ Ward has now passed for 1,390 yards and 13 touchdowns in his team’s first four games, proving to America that the team from Pullman won’t go quietly into that good night. Ward – alongside Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., who currently leads the nation in passing yards – has made considerable headway in the Heisman race and will benefit from the Cougars’ 38-35 upset win over then-no. 14 ranked Oregon State.

I firmly believe that Washington will see themselves into the playoff come January. The Huskies boast arguably the best wide receiving corps in the nation (sorry, Buckeye nation) with Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’ Lynn Polk all major assets, and Penix Jr. is playing at a level that surpasses that of his stellar 2020-21 campaign in Bloomington, Indiana. A brutal slate remains – with no. 10 Oregon, no. 5 USC, no. 11 Utah and the aforementioned Cougars all on the schedule – yet this might be the year that second-year coach Kalen DeBoer reaches the College Football Playoff. Yes, Washington’s 24-7 loss to Alabama in 2016 is a bit of a stain, but this season’s parity should bode well for the Huskies.

Alabama should not be overlooked with Saban still at the helm

The Crimson Tide just can’t lose two games at home. With no. 15 Ole Miss coming to town on the heels of a sketchy win over USF in Tampa and a home loss to Texas, Alabama knew that the doubters would be eagerly watching as Lane Kiffin returned to Tuscaloosa. The quarterback situation seems to have been resolved, as junior Jalen Milroe returned as the starter and led the Tide to a 24-10 victory over the Rebels – putting to bed any immediate questions about Saban’s ability to continue his dynasty.

This team faces a juggernaut of a schedule later this season – featuring Tennessee, LSU, and an Arkansas team that brought the Tigers to the brink Saturday – but the best will rise to the top, and Saban knows the power of the SEC slate. I imagine his team will only improve as the year wears on, and we shouldn’t see any more quarterback rumblings after Saban essentially said that he felt obligated to play both Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner against USF.

This is Milroe’s team now.

The ACC is good again?

Don’t look now, but four teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference are in the top 25: no. 5 Florida State, no. 15 North Carolina, no. 17 Duke and no. 18 Miami. Now, the relative ease of the ACC makes it difficult to stack these teams up with the best of the rest in the SEC, Pac-12, and Big Ten. We saw North Carolina nearly fall to in-state opponent Appalachian State, while Florida State struggled in Chestnut Hill last weekend and escaped with a three-point win over Boston College. Duke hasn’t shown many signs of weakness and trampled a Clemson team that should’ve absolutely defeated the Seminoles at home yesterday.

Miami’s best win so far came against Texas A&M, but they haven’t been a real threat in years. Nonetheless, the voters seem to believe that the nation’s premier basketball conference boasts some strong football programs as well, with Duke’s ascendancy perhaps the most surprising out of the bunch. It was only a matter of time before Florida State returned to the top of the ACC…now, Mike Norvell’s team has come out unscathed after major tests against LSU and Clemson. The dark years of Seminole football may result in a College Football Playoff appearance, the first for Florida State since 2014.

The rest of the ACC is pretty bad. There’s not a whole lot of depth behind the five (except for the surprising 4-0 teams, Louisville and Syracuse), and Virginia, Virginia Tech and Boston College are making their cases for the worst team in the Power Five. The Commonwealth Cup should be a doozy in Charlottesville, as the Cavaliers are currently 0-4 and the Hokies are 1-3, having just suffered an embarrassing seven-point loss to Marshall.

College Football!
Way-too-early Top 25: NCAA Men’s Lacrosse

June 13th, 2023

By: William Smythe

1. Notre Dame

A: Pat Kavanagh (Gr.), Chris Kavanagh (Jr.), Jake Taylor (Gr.)

M: Eric Dobson (Sr.), Reilly Gray (Gr.), Devon McLane (Gr.)

SSDM: Ben Ramsey (Jr.), Danny Parker (Gr.), Nick Harris (Gr.)

LSM: Will Donovan (So.)

FO: Will Lynch (Jr.) / Colin Hagstrom (Sr.)

D: Ross Burgmaster (Sr.), Marco Napolitano (Gr.), BJ Burlace (Gr.)

G: Liam Entenmann (Gr.)

Key Losses: D Chris Fake, M Brian Tevlin, D Chris Conlin, M Quinn McCahon, LSM Jose Boyer, A/M Griffin Westlin

Key Additions: A Devon McLane (Brown), D BJ Burlace (Maryland), SSDM Danny Parker (UVA), M Jake Bonomi (Michigan), A Brock Behrman (Fr.), M Jordan Faison (Fr.), FO Andrew Greenspan (Fr.)

Why Notre Dame?

It’s typically a courtesy to put a defending champ at no. 1, yet the Irish have fully earned this designation entering 2023-24. Coming off of a dominant, 14-2 season culminating in the program’s first national championship, Notre Dame has reloaded thanks to the portal and the extra COVID year. The entire starting attack line (the best unit in the nation) will return to South Bend next season, while first-team All-American netminder Liam Entenmann (57% SV) will remain between the pipes. Throw in Sergio Perkovic’s clone – Eric Dobson (34g, 11a) – and you have a midfield that will build off of last season’s success. Duke and Maryland are hungrier than ever, yet Notre Dame has every right to sit atop the way-too-early power rankings.

2. Maryland

A: Eric Malever (Jr.), Braden Erksa (So.), Daniel Kelly (Sr.)

M: Owen Murphy (Sr.), Danny Maltz (Gr.), Jack Koras (Sr.)

SSDM: Dante Trader (Jr.), Joshua Coffman (Gr.), Eric Kolar (So.)

LSM: Will Schaller (So.) / Nick Alviti (Gr.)

FO: Luke Wierman (Gr.)

D: Ajax Zappitello (Sr.), Colin Burlace (Jr.), Jackson Canfield (Gr.)

G: Logan McNaney (Gr.)

Key Losses: LSM John Geppert, D Brett Makar, D BJ Burlace, SSDM Donovan Lacey, FO Gavin Tygh, M Kyle Long

Key Additions: A Eric Malever (return from injury), G Logan McNaney (return from injury), SSDM Joshua Coffman (return from injury), D Jackson Canfield (Vermont), LSM Nick Alviti (Vermont), SSDM Colin Sharkey (Vermont), M Griffin King (Brown), FO Sean Creter (Fr.), M Elijah Stobaugh (Fr.), M Thomas Gravino (Fr.)

Why Maryland?

This team’s defensive personnel is second to none, and the offense will return nearly all of last season’s contributors. Injuries plagued the Terps last season, as attackman Eric Malever (26g, 22a in 2022) , goalie Logan McNaney (60% SV in 2022) and shortstick defensive midfielder Josh Coffman (23g, 8a in 2021) didn’t play in a season which was rather underwhelming. Expectations will always be high in College Park, especially with these three presumably back in the lineup. The midfield/attack, moreover, has plenty of depth (one of Daniel Kelly/Daniel Maltz won’t start on attack, which should tell you something). They almost have too many pieces to toy with. Also, three-time All-American face-off man Luke Wierman is back, meaning that everything is in place for another championship run for the Terps. The case for Duke at No. 1/2 is strong, yet I believe more strongly in Maryland’s personnel at every position.

3. Duke

A: Josh Zawada (Gr.), Brennan O’Neill (Sr.), Dyson Williams (Gr.)

M: Charles Balsamo (So.), Andrew McAdorey (Jr.), Aidan Danenza (Sr.)

SSDM: Aidan Maguire (So.), Charlie O’Connor (Sr.), Jack Gray (Jr.)

LSM: Tyler Carpenter (Gr.)

FO: Jake Naso (Sr.)

D: Kenny Brower (Gr.), Keith Boyer (Jr.), Henry Bard (So.)

G: Will Helm (Gr.)

Key Losses: M Garrett Leadmon, D Wilson Stephenson, G William Helm, M Tommy Schelling, M Jadon Kerry, M Owen Caputo

Key Additions: A Josh Zawada (Michigan), A/M Alex Slusher (Princeton), G Griffin Rakower (Princeton), A Brock Gonzalez (Amherst), G Mac Fotiades (Michigan), M Benn Johnson (Fr.), M Tomas Delgado (Fr.), LSM Mac Christmas (Fr.),

Why Duke?

Hunger. Duke came so close to securing their first national championship since 2015 – a considerable drought for such a strong program – yet fell on the biggest stage in a woeful performance offensively. Likely no team will be as motivated as the Blue Devils entering next season, and, luckily for Danowski and company, Tewaaraton Award-winning attackman Brennan O’Neill (55g, 42a) is back. He’ll likely be complemented by two high school teammates from the Hill Academy, Michigan transfer Josh Zawada (36g, 29a) and goal-scoring machine Dyson Williams (60g, 5a), while the midfield will feature three returning starters in Charles Balsamo (20g, 11a), hybrid Andrew McAdorey (36g, 25a) and Aidan Danenza (22g, 10a). Can’t complain with first-team All-American Jake Naso (62%) back as well. Only rub with Duke? The lack of a premier goalie. This offense is more potent than any other…when you bump a guy like McAdorey to midfield, you know your unit is talented.

4. Virginia

A: Connor Shellenberger (Sr.), Payton Cormier (Gr.), Jack Boyden (Gr.)

M: Griffin Schutz (Jr.), Patrick McIntosh (Sr.), McCabe Millon (Fr.)

SSDM: Chase Yager (Gr.), Noah Chizmar (Jr.), Mack Till (So.)

LSM: Ben Wayer (Sr.) / Tommy McNeal (Jr.) / Mitchell Whalen (Gr.)

FO: Matthew DeSouza (Gr.) / Anthony Ghobriel (Jr.) / Thomas Colucci (Gr.)

D: Cole Kastner (Sr.), Griffin Kology (Jr.), George Fulton (Jr.)

G: Matthew Nunes (Jr.)

Key Losses: A Xander Dickson, M Thomas McConvey, M Jeff Conner, FO Petey LaSalla, D Cade Saustad, D Quentin Matsui, D Scott Bower, SSDM Grayson Sallade, SSDM Evan Zinn, SSDM Danny Parker, FO Mac Eldridge

Key Additions: A/M Jack Boyden (Tufts), SSDM Chase Yager (Harvard), FO Matthew DeSouza (Binghamton), FO Anthony Ghobriel (Navy), FO Thomas Colucci (Colgate), A McCabe Millon (Fr.), M Wills Burt (Fr.), M Kian McCarthy (Fr.)

Why Virginia?

Connor Shellenberger. The two-time first-team All-American (30g, 54a) will suit up for the last time in Charlottesville in 2024 alongside his good buddy Payton Cormier (52g, 12a). Nobody is a better distributor in college lacrosse than Shellenberger. With Cormier the premier finisher and sophomore Truitt Sunderland a budding replacement for Shellenberger after this year, the Virginia attack will be fearsome. However, this team is still losing plenty. Shortstick defensive midfield is the lone thin area for the Cavaliers, yet Harvard transfer Chase Yager (27gb, 14ct) should help shore up that unit alongside junior Noah Chizmar (39gb, 12ct). A slight step back is expected for Virginia, but they should be just fine. Also, having another No. 1 recruit (A McCabe Millon) – and a D-III player of the year in Tufts’ A/M Jack Boyden – on Grounds is certainly helpful.

5. Penn State

A: Jake Morin (Sr.), Chris Jordan (Gr.), TJ Malone (Gr.)

M: Matt Traynor (Jr.), Luke Mercer (Sr.), Ethan Long (Jr.)

SSDM: Grant Haus (Gr.), Kyle Aldridge (Jr.), Mark Sickler (Sr.)

LSM: Sam Sweeney (Gr.) / Ryan O’Connor (So.)

FO: Chase Mullins (So.) / Hudson Bohn (Jr.)

D: Jack Posey (Gr.), Alex Ross (So.), Kevin Parnham (Jr.)

G: Jack Fracyon (Jr.)

Key Losses: A Jack Traynor, M Kevin Winkoff, M Mac Costin

Key Additions: A Sean Donnelly (Drexel), M James Dalimonte (Muhlenberg), D Joe Scarfi (St. Lawrence), A Kyle Lehman (Fr.)

Why Penn State?

5th (or 6th) year men. It will be somewhat difficult to replace the production of graduates Jack Traynor (32g, 17a) and midfielder Kevin Winkoff (24g, 18a), but the Nittany Lions should be thrilled with their offseason thus far. All-American TJ Malone (39g, 33a) is back for a 6th year in State College, ensuring that some stability is maintained on the offensive side of the ball. Second-team All-American Jack Fracyon is back between the pipes (56% SV), and he’ll be protected by premier cover-man Jack Posey (25g, 11a) and All-American shortstick defensive midfielder Grant Haus (35gb, 10ct). In the blink of an eye, Penn State managed to leap back into the top-5 conversation; moreover, I believe that Coach Jeff Tambroni can find fitting replacements in his roster for the spots vacated by Winkoff and the elder Traynor. Penn State will also come into this season highly motivated after last season’s controversial semifinal loss to Duke.

6. Johns Hopkins

A: Russell Melendez (Sr.), Garrett Degnon (Gr.), Jacob Angelus (Gr.)

M: Matthew Collison (So.), Johnathan Peshko (Sr.), Dylan Bauer (Sr.)

SSDM: Jakson Raposo (Sr.), Brett Martin (Sr.), Brandon Aviles (Gr.)

LSM: Nick Kaufman (Jr.)

FO: Tyler Dunn (Sr.)

D: Scott Smith (Sr.), Jacob Stoebner (Gr.),Beaudan Szuluk (Gr.)

G: Chayse Ierlan (Gr.)

Key Losses: LSM/D Alex Mazzone, M Jack Hawley, G Tim Marcille

Key Additions: G Chayse Ierlan (Cornell), SSDM Brandon Aviles, D Jacob Stoebner (Princeton), D Andrew Stanzel (Bucknell), G Oran Gelinas (Ohio State), A Hunter Chauvette (Fr.), A Gabriel Sorichetti (Fr.), A Jimmy Ayers (Fr.)

Why Johns Hopkins?

A new chapter. Hopkins was reeling coming into 2023, having gone a measly 21-30 over the past four years. Nonetheless, the Blue Jays put themselves back on the map with a gutsy turnaround – featuring an NCAA Quarterfinal appearance and a 4-1 record in the competitive Big Ten. Now, Coach Peter Milliman is looking to build on an exceedingly impressive third-year campaign and is retaining every key contributor besides ground-ball machine and LSM Alex Mazzone. Marquette transfer Russell Melendez (37g, 16a) will share the keys to the offense with fifth-year men Jacob Angelus (17g, 44a) and Garrett Degnon (41g, 5a), and they’ll be helped in large part by the Canadian duo of Matt Collison (26g, 9a) and Johnathan Peshko (16g, 5a) in the midfield. The X-factor for the Blue Jays, though? Cornell transfer goalie Chayse Ierlan, a four-year starter in Ithaca. What a massive get for Hopkins.

7. Army

A: Reese Burek (Sr.), Paul Johnson (Sr.), Gunnar Fellows (So.)

M: Evan Plunkett (So.) Jacob Morin (Sr.), Bailey O’Connor (Sr.)

SSDM: Christian Mazur (Jr.), Eamon Murphy (Sr.), Johnny Devino (Jr.)

LSM: Ryan Nixon (Jr.) / Christian Fournier (Jr.)

FO: Will Coletti (Jr.)

D: AJ Pilate (Jr.), Ned Lynch (Sr.), John Sullivan (So.)

G: Matt Chess (Sr.)

Key Losses: G Knox Dent

Key Additions: A Hill Plunkett (Fr.), FO Robert Simone (Fr.)

Why Army?

Returners. The Black Knights are only losing “Fort” Knox Dent, a mainstay in the defense yet the only significant contributor from this past season’s senior class. This is a roster that exceeded expectations and then some, finishing 13-4 while dropping a heartbreaker to Penn State in the NCAA Quarterfinals. Expect this defense to compete with Maryland for the title of the “best” in the nation, as junior AJ Pilate (35gb, 17ct) will anchor a unit that led the nation in scoring defense with 9.12 goals allowed per game. Not surprising that the United States Military Academy boasts a tremendous defense, after all. Moreover, the offense will be more than serviceable with everyone back in the fold, including star sophomore midfielder Evan Plunkett (25g, 21a) and gunslinger Jacob Morin (36g, 6a). Momentum is building at West Point.

8. Michigan

A: Michael Boehm (Sr.), Justin Tiernan (Gr.), Ryan Cohen (Jr.)

M: Christian Ronda (Gr.), Aidan Mulholland (Jr.), Isaac Aronson (Jr.)

SSDM: Beau Pederson (Gr.), Michael Cosgrove (Gr.), Lucas Delgado (Jr.)

LSM: Cathal Roberts (Gr.)

FO: Justin Wietfeldt (Sr.)

D: Jimmy Pisani (So.), Jack Whitney (Sr.), Ryan Schriber (Gr.)

G: Hunter Taylor (So.)

Key Losses: A Bryce Clay, A Josh Zawada, M Jake Bonomi, D Andrew Darby, FO Nick Rowlett

Key Additions: M Christian Ronda (Princeton), SSDM Beau Pederson (Princeton), LSM Cathal Roberts (Princeton), A Justin Tiernan (Lehigh), D Rowan Clay (Fr.), A Nick Roode (Fr.), M CJ Reilly (Fr.)

Why Michigan?

Princeton. When you add three potential starters from one university, that’s an offseason well done. After a coming out party of sorts for Michigan – with the Wolverines winning the B10 tournament for the first time and gaining a spot in the NCAA Quarterfinals – the party didn’t stop. Coach Kevin Conry went out and snagged three Tigers – midfielder Christian Ronda (21g, 11a), long-stick midfielder Cathal Roberts (26gb, 19ct), and two-time All-American/short-stick defensive midfielder Beau Pederson (26gb, 11ct) – for their graduate year in Ann Arbor. With attackmen Michael Boehm (45g, 28a) and Ryan Cohen (27g, 30a) returning, the Wolverines are well-positioned to hang around the top of the Big Ten. This is a new dawn for a program that has only recently taken the step up to Division 1.

9. Syracuse

A: Joey Spallina (So.), Christian Mule’ (Gr.), Owen Hiltz (Jr.)

M: Jake Stevens (Gr.), Sam English (Gr.), Finn Thomson (So.)

SSDM: Carter Rice (Jr.), Jake Stevens (Gr.), Jake Titus (Gr.)

LSM: Saam Olexo (Sr.) / Matt Wright (Gr.)

FO: Mason Kohn (Gr.)

D: Nick Caccamo (Sr.), Billy Dwan (So.), Caden Kol (Jr.)

G: Will Mark (Gr.)

Key Losses: M Cole Kirst, M Alex Simmons, SSDM Brandon Aviles

Key Additions: M Jake Stevens (Princeton), M Sam English (Princeton), A Christian Mule’ (Lehigh), FO Mason Kohn (Tufts), SSDM Jake Titus (Union), LSM Steven Schmitt (Mt. St. Mary’s), LSM Matt Wright (UNC), D Zack Puckhaber (Gettysburg), A Trey Deere (Fr.), M Tucker Kellogg (Fr.)

Why Syracuse?

Canadians. This team is chock-full of them. And even the ones who aren’t (Joey Spallina) have that Canadian flair. Syracuse has come across hard times in the past couple seasons, as new coach Gary Gait has not yet been able to bring back the Orange’s former glory. However, the time is now for Gait, even without defensive coordinator Dave Pietramala. Legendary players and coaches in their own right, the two landed a spread of transfers that will contribute immediately, including two Princeton All-Americans (and Canadians) in Sam English (30g, 18a in 2022) and Jake Stevens (24g, 5a, 35gb in 2023), two stalwart longstick midfielders in Matt Wright (27GB, 9CT @ UNC) and Steven Schmitt (96GB, 29 CT @ Mt. St. Mary’s), attackman Christian Mule’ (29g, 44a @ Lehigh) and face-off man Mason Kohn (71% FO @ Tufts). Everything will still run through sophomore attackman Joey Spallina (36g, 32a), the most highly-touted recruit in some time. The Orange, with no glaring flaws in their roster, have no excuse to underperform this season.

10. Cornell

A: CJ Kirst (Sr.), Michael Long (Sr.), Spencer Wirtheim (Sr.)

M: Hugh Kelleher (Sr.), Andrew Dalton (Sr.), Aiden Blake (Sr.)

SSDM: Christopher Davis (Jr.), Kyle Smith (Sr.), Charlie Box (So.)

LSM: Brendan Staub (So.) / Walker Wallace (Sr.)

FO: Jack Cascadden (So.)

D: Jack Follows (Sr.), Jayson Singer (Jr.), Matt Dooley (So.)

G: Matthew Tully (Fr.)

Key Losses: D Gavin Adler, G Chayse Ierlan, A Billy Coyle

Key Additions: M AJ Nikolic (Fr.), G Matthew Tully (Fr.)

Why Cornell?

This offense. The Big Red will dearly miss the services of two-time first-team All-American defender Gavin Adler (63gb, 25ct) and the aforementioned Ierlan, so the offense will have to carry the load. Luckily for Coach Connor Buczek, one of the nation’s premier attackman – CJ Kirst (65g, 19a) – is staying in Ithaca for his senior season. The Big Red are only really losing midfielder/attackman Billy Coyle (30g, 28a) to graduation – a blow, regardless – yet there’s enough talent to keep Cornell top-ten nationally. Sophomore longstick midfielder Brendan Staub (27g, 11a) is a rising star, and senior defender Jack Follows (34g, 13a) should make an All-American case in his first year out of Adler’s shadow. I do think there are some major holes (goalie, in particular) which will need to be addressed.

11. Yale

A: Leo Johnson (Jr.), Chris Lyons (Jr.), Brad Sharp (Jr.)

M: Carson Kuhl (Jr.), Max Krevsky (Jr.), Patrick Hackler (Sr.)

SSDM: Jack Monfort (Sr.), Christian Johnson (Jr.), Carter Henry (Sr.)

LSM: Jack Stuzin (Sr.)

FO: Nicholas Ramsey (Sr.)

D: Michael Alexander (Sr.), Jake Cohen (Jr.), Brett Mallee (Sr.)

G: Jared Paquette (Sr.)

Key Losses: A Matt Brandau, M Thomas Bragg, D Bryce De Muth, M Kyle Zawadski

Key Additions: A Peter Moynihan (Fr.)

Why Yale?

Junior contributors. With attackman Matt Brandau (154g, 104a in his career) finally gone, the keys of the offense are firmly in the hands of third-years Chris Lyons (62g, 12a) and Leo Johnson (40g, 22a). Yale’s junior crop should hold five of the six offensive spots, while the defense will go experience-heavy in the third year of a Jared Paquette-anchored (51% SV) unit. Even despite an up-and-down 2023, the Elis snuck into the tournament and gave Georgetown all they could handle in the first round. No significant contributors besides Brandau and midfielder Thomas Bragg (19g, 7a) are heading out, so the pieces are still there for a deep run in May. I just wonder how major a loss Brandau actually is for this team…feel like it’s been ten years with him on that attack line.

12. Denver

A: Michael Lampert (Sr.), Noah Manning (Jr.), JJ Sillstrop (Gr.)

M: Stephen Avery (Sr.), Mic Kelly (Jr.), Richie Connell (Gr.)

SSDM: Dan Anderson (So.), Casey Wilson (Jr.), Jake Edinger (Gr.)

LSM: Ryan Giles (Sr.)

FO: Alec Stathakis (Gr.)

D: Jimmy Freehill (Jr.), Adam Hangland (Gr.), AJ Mercurio (Gr.)

G: Malcolm Kleban (Sr.)

Key Losses: LSM Malik Sparrow

Key Additions: M Gavin Dallas (Fr.), D Brody Davis (Fr.), M Maddox Johnson (Fr.), A Greyson Vorgang (Fr.), M DJ Clark (Fr.)

Why Denver?

Matt Brown. The Canadian national team head coach and longtime Denver assistant is now the head of the Pios, and his brilliant coaching of the National Championship-caliber Denver teams of the 2010s should be an indicator of future successes. The Pioneers had a pretty good year in 2023, nearly missing the tournament after falling to Georgetown in the Big East finals, and they’ll be returning all of their top six scorers from last season around the top 10. It has been made official that DU will be retaining several super-seniors – including four-year FO starter Alec Stathakis and leading scorer JJ Sillstrop – so their prospects have only improved in the offseason. With the Pios expected to lose the bulk of their production next season, this year might be make or break.

13. Princeton

A: Coulter Mackesy (Jr.), Braedon Saris (Jr.), Nate Kabiri (Fr.)

M: Lukas Stanat (Sr.), Sean Cameron (Jr.), Tommy Barnds (Sr.)

SSDM: Marquez White (Sr.), Paul Weathington (Sr.), Joe Juengerkes (Sr.)

LSM: Michael Bath (Jr.) / Cooper Kistler (So.)

FO: Tyler Sandoval (Sr.) / Andrew McMeekin (So.)

D: Pace Billings (Sr.), Colin Mulshine (Jr.), Hunter Spiess (Fr.)

G: Michael Gianforcaro (Sr.)

Key Losses: M Jake Stevens, M Sam English, M Christian Ronda, M Alexander Vardaro, A Alex Slusher, SSDM Beau Pederson, D Ben Finlay, LSM Cathal Roberts, G Griffin Rakower

Key Additions: A Nate Kabiri (Fr.), M Tucker Wade (Fr.), A Colin Burns (Fr.), D Hunter Spiess (Fr.), M Carson Krammer (Fr.)

Why Princeton?

Coulter Mackesy. Everything runs through the junior attackman from Bronxville, N.Y., as his massive, second-team All-American campaign put everyone on notice. The sophomore outpaced the other stars in the Tiger offense – Alexander Vardaro, Alex Slusher, and Ronda included – and scored at least six points in nine of Princeton’s 15 games. The Tigers also recruited extremely well, landing four five-stars and the no. 13 player in the country – attackman Nate Kabiri. This team will be fairly young after graduating such an accomplished senior class, who weren’t able to finish out their fifth years at Princeton, yet the future is bright. Expect sophomore midfielder David Smythe to make a huge leap in year two.

14. Georgetown

A: TJ Haley (Sr.), Aidan Carroll (Sr.), Holt Matheis (Jr.)

M: Graham Bundy (Gr.), Alexander Vardaro (Gr.), Jordan Wray (So.)

SSDM: Dylan Hess (Sr.), Will Godine (Gr.), Jack Leary (Sr.)

LSM: Wallace Halpert (Sr.)

FO: James Ball (Sr.)

D: Will Tominovich (Sr.), Ty Banks (Fr.), James Donaldson (Gr.)

G: Michael Scharfenberger (Jr.)

Key Losses: A Tucker Dordevic, A Brian Minicus, A Jacob Kelly, M Nicky Solomon, D Will Bowen, FO James Reilly, G Danny Hincks, SSDM Will Godine, M Declan McDermott

Key Additions: M Alexander Vardaro (Princeton), FO James Ball (Yale), D Wesley Chairs (Mercer), D Ty Banks (Fr.), G Anderson Moore (Fr.)

Why Georgetown?

Young guns. Georgetown is basically losing everyone. The only significant returners are All-American Graham Bundy (32g, 12a) and senior attackman TJ Haley (1g, 25a), the latter of whom has seen his role gradually decrease as Georgetown dips more and more into the portal. He’s also not a threat to score whatsoever, but has typically paced the Hoyas in the assist department. Now, Coach Kevin Warne will likely roll out a sophomore at midfield – Jordan Wray (8g, 1a) – alongside Bundy and prized transfer Alexander Vardaro, and the attack will feature two new starters in senior Aidan Carroll (7g, 7a) and…someone else. The defense should be just fine with five-star Ty Banks joining a veteran unit (without Will Bowen, though), but the offense will need guys to step up. It’s been ultra-surprising that Warne hasn’t landed more players out of the portal, even if they just landed the All-American Vardaro from Princeton. After all, portalers on Hilltop accounted for 229 points last season.

15. Penn

A: Ben Smith (Jr.), Cam Rubin (Sr.), Tynan Walsh (Jr.)

M: James Shipley (Gr.), Robert Schain (Gr.), Gabe Furey (Gr.)

SSDM: Luke DiGiacobbe (Sr.), James Shipley (Gr.), Chris Canet (Jr.)

LSM: Ryan McLaughlin (So.)

FO: Chris Arceri (Sr.) / Mac Eldridge (So.)

D: Brendan Lavelle (Sr.), Tyler Kuehl (Jr.), Peter Blake (Sr.)

G: Emmet Carroll (Sr.)

Key Losses: M Sam Handley, A Dylan Gergar, LSM BJ Farrare, SSDM Piper Bond

Key Additions: M Connell Kumar (UVA), FO Mac Eldridge (UVA), M Leo Hoffman (Fr.), A Grayson McClements (Fr.)

Why Penn?

A well-balanced roster. Penn is losing three major pieces in All-Americans Sam Handley (M), Piper Bond (SSDM), and BJ Farrare (LSM), yet they’re retaining a ton of talent. Attackmen Cam Rubin (27g, 7a) and Ben Smith (24g, 7a) will be relied upon more heavily next season, and an experienced midfield should begin to fill the massive footsteps (literally) that Handley left. The Quakers also did pretty well in the portal/recruiting trail, picking up U.Va. transfer face-off man Mac Eldridge – a former five-star – and five-star midfielder Leo Hoffman. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hoffman worked his way into the starting lineup at some point in 2024. It seemed like Penn was always playing in close games in 2024, with their 7-6 record perhaps not reflective of this team’s talent. For now, they’re fourth in the Ivy, but this league will likely have a strong dose of parity.

16. Loyola

A: Matthew Minicus (So.), Davis Lindsey (Sr.), Henry Haberman (So.)

M: Evan James (Gr.), Adam Poitras (Gr.), Seth Higgins (Sr.)

SSDM: Mustang Sally (Gr.), Max McGillicuddy (Sr.), Will Sherwood (Gr.)

LSM: Remington Reynolds (So.) / Diego Roman (Jr.)

FO: Eric Pacheco (Gr.)

D: Alex Bean (Jr.), Josh Fairey (Sr.), Joe Houlihan (Jr.)

G: Luke Staudt (Sr.)

Key Losses: D Cam Wyers, M Liam Bateman, SSDM Payton Rezanka, D Matt Hughes

Key Additions: LSM Remington Reynolds (Rutgers)

Why Loyola?

A solid offensive core. In my eyes, this list drops off pretty sharply after Penn. The Greyhounds were average in 2023, going 9-8 albeit taking down the defending champs – Maryland – Week 1. They are losing two key contributors on defense – Cam Wyers (31g, 22a) and shortstick midfielder Payton Rezanka (18gb, 19ct), so the hope is that their offense will carry the burden. Sophomores Matthew Minicus (33g, 16a) and Henry Haberman (12g, 3a) burst onto the scene in 2023 as first-year catalysts; they should only improve under Coach Charley Toomey’s tutelage. Part of this ranking comes from the fact that the Patriot League may be weak next season, with Lehigh losing a ton of production and Navy still trying to find its identity. Loyola, Boston University and Army will duke it out for control of a still-underrated conference.

17. Richmond

A: Dalton Young (Gr.), Luke Grayum (Sr.), Aidan O’Neil (So.)

M: Lance Madonna (Sr.), Joe Sheridan (So.), Henry Alpaugh (Jr.)

SSDM: Jeff Nugent (Sr.), Joe Gooley (Gr.), Jack Pilling (So.)

LSM: Tommy Stull (Jr.)

FO: Jarey Chenoy (Jr.)

D: Hunter Smith (So.), Jack Fabean (Sr.), Anthony Romano (Jr.)

G: Zach Vigue (Jr.)

Key Losses: M Derrek Madonna, M Brandon Smith, D Jake Saunders

Key Additions: A Gavin Creo (Fr.)

Why Richmond?

Postseason successes. The Spiders have now reached the NCAA Tournament four times in the last six years, winning their conference tournament in back-to-back years (2023 and 2022) despite holding the no. 2 rank in the A-10. They’ll bring back five of their six scorers, their starting goalie, face-off man and longstick midfielder, all while avoiding Portal Kombat. This attack – featuring Young, Grayum and O’Neil – combined for 156 points last season, while midfielder Lance Madonna starred with 46 points out of the midfield. Maybe this can be the year when the Spiders take that leap and win a tournament game, even if they’ve already gone above and beyond in the Atlantic-10. I like them to hold the no. 1 seed in the conference and have that chance once again in 2024.

18. North Carolina

A: James Matan (So.), Dominic Pietramala (Fr.), Lance Tillman (Gr.)

M: Ryan Levy (Jr.), Antonio DeMarco (Jr.), Owen Duffy (Fr.)

SSDM: Ty English (Jr.), Leif Hagerup (So.), Hartley Jordan (Gr.)

LSM: Tyler Schwarz (Jr.)

FO: Andrew Tyeryar (Gr.)

D: Paul Barton (Jr.), Max Cooney (Sr.), Collin Loughead (Sr.)

G: Collin Krieg (Sr.)

Key Losses: A Sean Goldsmith, A Logan McGovern, M Harry Wellford, M Henry Schertzinger, M Harrison Schertzinger, SSDM Connor Maher, M Griffin Gallagher, LSM Matt Wright, D JT Roselle, D Andrew Geppert

Key Additions: M Hartley Jordan (VMI), D Nick Morgan (Hampden-Sydney), M Danny Striano (Bucknell), A Owen Duffy (Fr.), FO Brady Wambach (Fr.), LSM Brett Koopman (Fr.)

Why UNC?

Exciting young talent. There could not be more uncertainty about the Tar Heels following the graduation of multiple veterans, but potential lies within this Carolina attack/midfield. Graduate attackman Lance Tillman (21g, 15a) is the elder statesman of the group, while sophomore James Matan (18g, 12a) showed flashes of brilliance in his first season in Chapel Hill. Two players who will contribute immediately are redshirt freshman attackman Dom Pietramala and fellow five-star and midfielder Owen Duffy, both of whom made serious noise at their respective high schools and may carry the burden of bringing this Tar Heel program back to the success of 2021. There’s plenty of experience on the back-end with goalie Collin Krieg (48% SV) and face-off man Andrew Tyeryar (52% FO), so at least those spots are filled. Getting legendary head coach and defensive coordinator Dave Pietramala from Syracuse is a major add as well.

19. Rutgers

A: Ross Scott (Gr.), Dante Kulas (Jr.), Tanyr Krummenacher (Gr.)

M: David Sprock (Gr.), Shane Knobloch (Sr.), Jack Aimone (Sr.)

SSDM: Brandon Hund (Gr.), Donnie Howard (Gr.), Mason Edwards (Gr.)

LSM: Ryan Splaine (So.)

FO: Cole Brams (Gr.)

D: Tommy Mendyke (Jr.), Harris Hubbard (Gr.), Peter Rizzotti (Gr.)

G: Seamus Fagan (Gr.)

Key Losses: LSM Ethan Rall, D Bobby Russo, A Brian Cameron, D LaJhon Jones Jr., G Kyle Mullin, FO Joe Neuman, FO Jon Dugenio, FO Luke Romanek, LSM Remington Reynolds, A Eric Civetti, SSDM Noah Daniels, D Brad Apgar, M Justin Kim, D Jack Stahancyzk

Key Additions: A Tanyr Krummenacher (Amherst), A Connor McDonough (Towson), A/M John Sidorski (Lehigh), FO Cole Brams (Utah), D Harris Hubbard (W&L), G Seamus Fagan (Hamilton), SSDM Brandon Hund (Towson), SSDM Donnie Howard (Boston U), SSDM Mason Edwards (UMBC), D Peter Rizzotti (Dartmouth), FO Matt Soutar (Monmouth), A Colin Kelly (Canisius), G Marco Wimmershoff (Fr.), M Colin Kurdyla (Fr.), FO Brock Desmarais (Fr.)

Why Rutgers?

Ross Scott and Shane Knobloch. This was an odd off-season (and season) for the Scarlet Knights, who finished 8-6 after a 15-4 2022 campaign and missed the NCAA Tournament. Somehow, Ross Scott – Rutgers’ leading scorer over the past two seasons (117 pts) – will be returning to Piscataway to avenge the Scarlet Knights’ letdown of a year. He’ll be helped by a presumable first-team All-American candidate in midfielder Shane Knobloch (21g, 17a in 2023), and Rutgers will need to squeeze every ounce out of these two to stay competitive in the Big Ten. They’re graduating nearly all of their defensive mainstays, yet the SSDM unit will likely feature three new starters – all graduate transfers. Someone will have to step up at the LSM spot and on this defensive unit, but the offense will hum.

20. Utah

A: Jordan Hyde (Sr.), Tyler Bradbury (Sr.), Ryan Stines (So.)

M: Jared Andreala (Sr.), Koa Todd (Sr.), Carson Moyer (Sr.)

SSDM: Josh Rose (Sr.), Cody Hart (Jr.), Tyler Schifko (Jr.)

LSM: Colby Plotts (Jr.)

FO: Trey Akabane (Jr.)

D: Nikko DiPonio (So.), Joey Boylston (Sr.), Will Potter (So.)

G: Colin Lenskold (So.)

Key Losses: D Sammy Cambere, FO Cole Brams, M Ruben Santana, M Zach Chandler, D Dominic Mata

Key Additions: N/A

Why Utah?

Offense. Utah raced through the Atlantic Sun on the shoulders of their blistering offense, finishing second behind Virginia with 16.12 goals per game. Everyone, including an attack which registered 162 total points last season, is back, and the Utes are coming off of their first NCAA Tournament appearance. The Utah defense is nothing to write home about, especially with All-American Sammy Cambere (46gb, 25ct) set to leave a major hole on the backend. Nonetheless, what Utah accomplished in 2023 will likely spill over into 2023 based on the personnel remaining in Salt Lake City. They haven’t gone heavy on the portal, unsurprisingly, so it remains to be seen if other teams (Ohio State, Rutgers, Jacksonville, etc.) catch up to the Utes after gaining several new pieces.

21. Ohio State

A: Ed Shean (Jr.), Jack McKenna (Gr.), Kurt Bruun (Gr.)

M: Thomas Greenblatt (Gr.), Gannon Matthews (Jr.), Ari Allen (Jr.)

SSDM: Blake Eiland (So.), Connor Cmiel (Sr.), Greg Langermeier (Sr.)

LSM: Cullen Brown (So.)

FO: Tommy Burke (Gr.)

D: Bobby Van Buren (Jr.), Marcus Hudgins (Gr.), Justin Sherrer (Gr.)

G: Caleb Fyock (Fr.)

Key Losses: A Jack Myers, M Kyle Borda, M Kyle Lewis, A Mitchell Pehlke, A Colby Smith, A Scott White, G Skylar Wahlund, G Oran Gelinas, D Jake Snyder

Key Additions: A Jack McKenna (Fairfield), A Kurt Bruun (Tufts), FO Tommy Burke (Vermont), M Thomas Greenblatt (Binghamton), M Brett Gladstone (Grove City), A Ben Mayer (York), SSDM Eli Fisher (Wagner), G Danny Brady (Wagner), M Gannon Matthews (Cleveland St.), D Zack Antoniou (Fairfield), G Caleb Fyock (Fr.)

Why Ohio State?

Transfer help and Bobby Van Buren. The Buckeyes will have to find their way without vaunted attackman Jack Myers (121g, 115a in his career) this upcoming season, a deafening blow for a team that finished last in the Big Ten and posted a 5-9 record overall. So, why should they even be considered as a top-20 team? They’ll return two solid defenders in graduate student Marcus Hudgins (27gb, 17ct) and junior Bobby Van Buren (18gb, 6ct), a candidate for serious All-American honors in 2023. Easily the biggest addition for the Buckeyes is former Vermont face-off man Tommy Burke, who finished third in the nation in face-off percentage last season (65%). Burke can immediately remedy the revolving door that Ohio State faced at the face-off X last season. And, while the offensive outlook seems bleak, All-American midfielder and Binghamton transfer Thomas Greenblatt (23g, 35a) will contribute immediately on the Buckeyes’ first midfield line.

22. Harvard

A: Sam King (Jr.), Teddy Malone (So.), Owen Gaffney (Jr.)

M: Andrew Perry (Jr.), Miles Botkiss (Jr.), Logan Ip (So.)

SSDM: Andrew O’Berry (Jr.), Ray Dearth (Jr.), Andrew DeGennaro (Jr.)

LSM: Greg Campisi (Sr.)

FO: Matt Barracco (So.)

D: Charlie Muller (So.), Collin Bergstrom (Jr.), Martin Nelson (Jr.)

G: Christian Barnard (Sr.)

Key Losses: SSDM Chase Yager, A Hayden Cheek, M Nick Loring

Key Additions: FO Owen Umansky (Fr.), M Michael Smyth (Fr.)

Why Harvard?

Same dudes. Harvard majorly disappointed in 2023 after making the tournament the season prior with a roster full of freshman and sophomore contributors. The Crimson (5-7), however, will keep their core intact as they hope to return to national prominence; junior Sam King (31g, 25a) will be back in Cambridge, and the LSM position will be anchored by All-American Greg Campisi (33gb, 14ct). Who knows if the Crimson will look like their last season selves (the ones who gave Dartmouth their first Ivy win in program history) or the team who made the tournament with an 8-5 record in a highly competitive Ivy League. They have to prove themselves in 2023 with a strong nucleus of contributors intact.

23. Saint Joseph’s

A: Levi Anderson (Gr.), Carter Page (Sr.), Matt Bohmer (Gr.)

M: Colin Reich (Gr.), Mac McLaughlin (Gr.), William King (Sr.)

SSDM: Michael Gaughan (Jr.), Cole Peters (Gr.), Jack McGorry (Jr.)

LSM: Alex Keener (Gr.) / James Peters (Gr.)

FO: Gavin Tygh (Gr.)

D: Patrick Clemens (Gr.), Levi Verch (Jr.), Harrison Oehler (Sr.)

G: Shayne Ryan (Jr.) / Robbie Seeley (Gr.)

Key Losses: M Tucker Brown, M Stephen Dwyer, FO Zach Cole, A Ryan Doran, SSDM Andrew Chilson, LSM Matt Popeck, SSDM Zach Mantei, D Joe Burnham

Key Additions: FO Gavin Tygh (Maryland), A Toron Eccleston (Lenoir-Rhyne), LSM Michael Waite (Fr.), M Evan Curry (Fr.)

Why Saint Joe’s?

A lethal attack line. Another 2022 NCAA Tournament team – like Harvard – that disappointed, St. Joe’s played a nasty schedule that included Penn, Duke and Hopkins, finishing 10-5 and falling to High Point in the A-10 semifinals. The Hawks, however, will retain graduate student attackman (and Canadian) Levi Anderson (39g, 11a), a relentless and physical dodger who pairs well with another elite Canadian finisher in Carter Page (47g, 5a). Losing All-American face-off man Zach Cole is a brutal blow for St. Joe’s. Their ranking is an indication of this roster hole, since their offense will likely be lethal in 2023. I foresee another tournament appearance for the Hawks if they ease up on the schedule next season.

24. Boston University

A: Vince D’Alto (Gr.), Louis Perfetto (Gr.), Thomas Niedringhaus (Gr.)

M: Tommy Bourque (Sr.), Zach Travaglini (Jr.), Charlie Huntley (So.)

SSDM: Robert Gallop (Gr.), Michael Gottlieb (Gr.), Tim Barrett (Sr.)

LSM: Roy Meyer (Gr.) / Walker Ker (Gr.)

FO: Conor Calderone (Gr.)

D: Patrick Morrison (Gr.), Trey Brown (Jr.), Dane DeGoler (Jr.)

G: Michael Allieri (Sr.)

Key Losses: A Timmy Ley, A Matt Hilburn, SSDM Jett Dziama, M Jake Cates, SSDM Blake Phillips, SSDM Donnie Howard

Key Additions: G Michael Allieri (Marquette), FO Matthew Fritz (Ohio State), M Charlie Huntley (Vermont), A Tommy Garofalo (F&M)

Why BU?

Graduate students. If you’re a Terrier fan, don’t start thinking two years down the road. Following a strong 10-4 campaign in 2023, the Terriers will have a good chance to compete for the Patriot League title if all of their fifth-years do choose to stay. All-American attackman Vince D’Alto (44g, 24a) and two-time first-team AA and long-stick midfielder Roy Meyer (64gb, 32ct) highlight this group. Who will take over at short-stick defensive midfield is the question, as this specific position group is extremely shorthanded following the departure of three contributors. Hopefully Meyer and fellow graduate student LSM Walker Ker (14gb, 7ct) can take the pressure off of their SSDMs next season.

25. Jacksonville

A: Jackson Intrieri (Jr.), Jacob Greiner (Sr.), Ethan LaMond (Jr.)

M: Ibrahim Pio (Sr.), Anthony Caputo (Gr.), Jack Taylor (So.)

SSDM: Tucker Garrity (Sr.), Bryce Wojnovich (Jr.), Lucas Osborne (So.)

LSM: Chris Darminio (Gr.)

FO: Nathan Kapp (Sr.)

D: Aaron Toguri (So.), Davis Smith (Sr.), Maximus Schalit (Gr.)

G: Josh Estavillo (Sr.)

Key Losses: A Dylan Watson, M Brendan Galloway, SSDM Cole Daninger, LSM Troy Hettinger, A Max Waldbaum, A Reid Smith, SSDM Zack Deaken, G Luke Millican, D Jack Heed, G Jason Yoquinto

Key Additions: D Maximus Schalit (Notre Dame), M Anthony Caputo (Pace), M Dalton Hubbs (Transylvania), D Seamus McCloskey (Dickinson), M Trey Aronow (Western Conn. St.), LSM Chris Darminio (Lynchburg), M Lucas Osborne (Yale), M Derek Marsilio (Vermont), G Paul Reidy (Delaware)

Why Jacksonville?

The portal. Besides Syracuse, who dominated Portal Kombat, perhaps no one enriched themselves more than the Dolphins. Coach John Galloway added Day-1 starters in Notre Dame transfer defenseman Maximus Schalit, Lynchburg long-stick midfielder Chris Darminio (115gb, 27ct), and former four-star recruit and Yale add Lucas Osborne. Now, Jacksonville hung around the top ten for a bit after knocking off the Blue Devils in the early non-conference, but they never quite built off of that momentum, going 12-4 with losses to Hopkins, Utah, Air Force and Robert Morris. Junior attackman Jackson Intrieri (21g, 24a) is a quality returner who will lead the post-Dylan Watson and Brendan Galloway era in Jacksonville.

Best Positional Units:

Attack – Notre Dame: Chris Kavanagh (46G, 16A), Pat Kavanagh (25G, 52A), Jake Taylor (30G, 3A), Jeffrey Ricciardelli (13g, 8a), Bryce Walker (6g, 2a)

Midfield – Maryland: Jack Koras (21G, 8A), Owen Murphy (18G, 9A), Eric Spanos (18G, 4A), Zach Whittier (11G, 9A), Jack Brennan (7G, 11A), Ryan Siracusa (7g, 3a), Griffin King (18g, 7a @ Brown), probably Daniel Maltz (28g, 10a) as well, if Kelly starts at attack

SSDM – Maryland: Dante Trader Jr. (18GB, 14CT), Josh Coffman (23GB, 8CT in 2021), Eric Kolar (13GB, 1CT), Nick Redd (8GB, 4CT), Colin Sharkey (27GB, 5CT @ Vermont)

LSM – Syracuse: Saam Olexo (53GB, 26CT), Matt Wright (27GB, 9CT @ UNC), Steven Schmitt (96GB, 29 CT @ Mt. St. Mary’s)

FO – Duke: Jake Naso (62%)

D – Army: AJ Pilate (35GB, 17CT), Ned Lynch (13GB, 9CT), John Sullivan (34GB, 7CT)

G – Maryland: Logan McNaney (60% in 2022), Brian Ruppel (48%)
Programs with questions to answer in March, alarming trends to correct

March 30th, 2023

By: William Smythe

With the bulk of the 2023 NCAA Tournament in the rearview, it’s time to examine which programs might be on the verge of some serious “self-questioning” after early exits. We can potentially attribute the frequent upsets to one of the most chaotic seasons in history, yet there exist bona-fide programs which haven’t quite gotten over the hump in March.

Recency bias is certainly in play here, and I acknowledge that. Nonetheless, programs such as Arizona and Purdue haven’t converted successful regular seasons into Final Fours and National Championships in the past decade or so. Let’s dive into the programs with alarming track records in the Big Dance.

Purdue

Don’t get me wrong, Purdue shouldn’t be facing blue-blood level scrutiny. They made the Elite Eight in 2019, won the Big Ten Championship this season and held the no. 1 ranking for a healthy party of the year. However, they’ve also advanced to the Elite Eight only once in the past six years – all in which Matt Painter’s crew held a five seed or below.

Prior to the Fairleigh Dickinson loss, the three-seeded Boilermakers ultimately fell in 2022 to fifteenth-seeded St. Peter’s in the Sweet Sixteen; sure, the Peacocks defeated no. 2 Kentucky and no. 7 Murray State beforehand, but you’re telling me a combination of 7’4 Zach Edey and 6’10 Trevion Williams couldn’t find a way to defeat a vastly undersized mid major?

Losses to no. 13 North Texas (2021) and no. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock (2016) only make the Boilermakers’ case worse. The regular season dominance is there, but a pattern of early exits – including a brutal Sweet 16 loss to St. Peter’s – has officially put the pressure on Painter to perform in March.

Arizona

Two tournament wins in the last two seasons isn’t exactly ideal for Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats won the Pac-12 regular season title in 2022 and gained tournament titles in 2022 and 2023 – yet to no avail. Arizona has alternated between Sweet 16 appearances and first round exits beginning in 2016, with the most recent defeat to 15 seed Princeton a perpetuation of the trend. Regular season success, like Purdue, is expected (and achieved) in Tucson.

The 31-3 Wildcats – ranked second in the AP Poll last season – nearly fell to ninth-seeded TCU in the second round and fell by 12 to no. 5 Houston in the Sweet 16. Arguably the best team assembled in Tucson in the 21st century, Lloyd’s crew looked nothing like the part of their regular season self.

A 21-point loss in 2018 to 13 seed Buffalo now gives Arizona two first-round losses to double-digit seeds in the past five years.

Tennessee

Rick Barnes officially has a problem on his hands. The fourth-seeded Vols arguably had their best chance to reach the program’s first Elite Eight since 2010, yet the unexpected Owls from Florida Atlantic took it to Tennessee in Madison Square Garden.

The Vols held a 3 seed last season and lost to eleventh-seeded Michigan in the second round. This wouldn’t be their second loss as a 3 to an 11 – remember the Loyola-Chicago game in 2018?

In 2020, 12 seed Oregon State trounced fifth-seeded Tennessee and proceeded to make the Elite Eight. The only “bright spot” in recent years was the Vols’ Sweet 16 battle against Purdue in 2019, a high-scoring affair that nearly saw them advance to take on top-seeded Virginia in the Elite Eight.

Barnes has the talent and the pedigree in regular season play, yet his teams have encountered early disappointment in the Big Dance.

Virginia

As a Virginia fan, it pains me to put us here. The National Championship in 2019 has salvaged a program that is desperate for a win in March – having lost back-to-back first round games to a 13 seed. The last second heave from JP Pegues is perhaps a reminder of where Virginia is heading in the post-championship hangover era.

In three out of the last four years that they’ve reached the Big Dance, the Cavaliers have fallen in the first round to the likes of Ohio, Furman, and of course, UMBC.

This team needs to taste victory again. The 2022-23 squad gained a share of the ACC regular season title, knocking off Baylor, Michigan, Duke and Illinois along the way; nonetheless, a poor offensive outing and an unbelievable gaffe in the final seconds squandered an opportunity for a run in March.

I don’t believe that this program is doomed, nor do I believe that the national championship year was a fluke. However, another loss to a double-digit seed may prove fatal.

Others up for consideration: Indiana (no Elite Eights since 2002), Alabama (disappointment when highly seeded)
Matchups to watch in March: Analyzing the Round of 64

March 15th, 2023
By: William Smythe

It’s finally here. With one day of play-ins already in the rearview, the Big Dance is shaping up to surprise in arguably the most unpredictable year of CBB in recent history. No one-seed is invincible – despite overall no. 1 Alabama’s recent dominance – and the 12/13 line is one of the strongest collections of mid-majors we’ve seen.

Could this be the year of a St. Peter’s or 2011 VCU?

Before chaos ensues, let’s break down some of the key narratives/matchups for the Round of 64.

Providence’s Bryce Hopkins takes on his old team

I’m sure Coach Cal wasn’t too enthused when he saw the draw on Sunday. Despite the relative ease of the ‘Cats schedule – if they are to sneak by eleven-seed Providence – he’ll have to go through a former player – Friar forward Bryce Hopkins (16.1 ppg).

The first-team All-Big East selection transferred from Kentucky in the off-season – having averaged 2.1 points in Lexington. In 2022-23, Hopkins excelled under Coach Ed Cooley and helped the Friars gain a foothold in the top-25, even despite their recent struggles.

This could go either way. Kentucky’s Jacob Toppin (and likely center Oscar Tshiebwe) have seen plenty of Hopkins’ game and may know exactly what it takes to limit his production; on the other hand, the Providence star will certainly be looking for revenge. Such a narrative can transcend a “bad” matchup, and I’m leaning towards a mammoth outing from Hopkins and a Round of 32 appearance for the Friars.

Regardless, expect plenty of TV coverage tailored towards the clash of familiar foes.

Arkansas-Illinois winner is a nightmare for Kansas

Instead of splitting the mid-major matchup of Memphis-FAU, the committee pit the SEC’s Arkansas and the Big Ten’s Illinois against each other in a must-see matchup in Des Moines. These teams – especially the ‘Hogs – have fallen far short of expectations in their respective conferences, yet the tournament benefits those seeking second chances.

Arkansas’ freshmen – guards Nick Smith Jr. (14.0 ppg), Anthony Black (12.8 ppg) and Jordan Walsh (7.2 ppg) – have kept the ‘Hogs afloat; however, this team has lost four of its last five and haven’t won a ranked matchup since Jan. 4.

Illinois is in a similar boat. The Fighting Illini have lost three of their last four but also boast some impressive wins – over then-no. 2 Texas, then-no. 8 UCLA and then-no. 21 Northwestern. Paced by Texas Tech transfer Terrence Shannon (17.1 ppg) and Baylor addition Matthew Mayer (12.8 ppg), Brad Underwood’s crew has some March experience and isn’t exactly the draw that Arkansas hoped for.

Nonetheless, the Illini have lost freshman Skyy Clark to the transfer portal but will desperately need the play of freshman point guard Jayden Epps – who recently suffered from a minor concussion.

No 8/9 matchup is more interesting than this one. Thanks to the improved play of Smith Jr. and a backcourt that could overwhelm the Illini, I’m giving the ‘Hogs the advantage here. No. 1 seed Kansas will have to fear Eric Musselman’s team, especially with Arkansas’ Elite Eight finishes in 2021 and 2022.

The committee knew what they were doing with Duke-ORU

Despite winning the ACC Tournament, the committee rewarded the Blue Devils with a five-seed and a date against a former Cinderella – Max Abmas’ Golden Eagles. Now a household name, Oral Roberts absolutely ran through their competition – going 16-0 in the Summit League – and finished the season with a 30-4 overall record.

Three of their four losses were to tournament teams, and the Golden Eagles haven’t tasted defeat since Jan. 9 against New Mexico. Combine the pure scoring ability of Abmas (22.2 ppg) with the 7’5 rim presence of Cal transfer Connor Vanover (12.9 ppg), and you have the recipe for a run in March.

Duke, however, is currently playing at the level of a two or three-seed. The Blue Devils have put together a nine-game winning streak and looked the part of a “normal” Duke roster after a dominating performance in the ACC Tournament. Junior guard Jeremy Roach (13.3 ppg) – who will likely be tasked with slowing Abmas down – has caught fire as of late, while freshman center Kyle Filipowski (15.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg) can stretch the floor and bang it down low.

Luckily for Duke, Filipowski and fellow seven-foot freshman Dereck Lively II can neutralize Vanover offensively, yet the Dukies may have to pivot from the paint on the offensive side of things.

Give me Duke to advance, yet know that Abmas and company will put up a fight. A rare W from the committee to put together such a matchup.

Beware Drake, Kent St.

Miami’s fate is largely contingent on the health of center Norchad Omier (14.0 ppg). If the big man from Nicaragua can’t go – or is significantly slowed by injury – the Drake Bulldogs could very well play the underdog role as the twelve-seed in the Midwest.

With wins over tournament teams Louisiana and Miss. St., there’s at least reason to believe that the Bulldogs can hang with the ACC co-champs. Sophomore guard Tucker Devries (19.0 ppg) will have to outduel Miami’s Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, yet the 6’7 scorer has the chops to carry Drake past a Hurricanes team with frontcourt questions.

Also, who was the last MVC team that played Miami in the tournament? 2018 Loyola Chicago.

The matchup right below Miami-Drake also catches the eye, as the fourth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers will square off against the MAC champs – Kent St. The Golden Flashes brought no. 1 seed Houston to the brink earlier this season and have won their last six, with a convincing victory over Toledo sending them to the Dance.

Thanks to the dynamic play of senior guard Sincere Carry (17.6 ppg), the Golden Flashes boast a player seemingly born for March – and someone who will have to overcome freshman sensation Jalen Hood-Schifino and First-Team All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.8 ppg).

Indiana is vulnerable in this spot. If Hood-Schifino struggles to make shots – and if the Golden Flashes double TJD and keep him relatively quiet – Kent State will advance.

Other notes:
- Vermont a no. 15 seed upset pick to monitor, even with Marquette’s recent success
- VCU-St. Mary’s will be a defensive battle, first to 50
- Iona’s Rick Pitino needs to focus on his team before St. John’s, especially with a former Husky on his coaching staff
- Texas A&M-Penn State is a matchup of two teams who deserved a higher seed
Previewing Friday’s slate: Another step towards Selection Sunday

March 10th, 2023

By: William Smythe

Surprisingly, nothing that shocking happened yesterday. St. John’s and DePaul squandered major opportunities to upset the first and second-seeded teams in the Big East – Marquette and Xavier, respectively – yet fell in the final minutes.

Virginia put the nail in the coffin for North Carolina’s hopes to make the NCAA Tournament, with the Tar Heels becoming the first preseason no. 1 ranked team to miss the Big Dance. Lastly, no. 10 Baylor suffered their third loss of the season to an Iowa State team that struggled late in the season – sending the Bears into the tournament with an utter lack of momentum.

Hindsight bias would argue that the ‘Heels had no business being ranked first overall, yet I’ll admit: I had high expectations for Hubert Davis’ crew. Will the likes of R.J. Davis, Caleb Love and Armando Bacot return to Chapel Hill? We shall see.

Today’s slate should see far more excitement, with several blockbuster matchups taking place in the Big East, ACC and Big 12, among others. Let’s dive into it.

No. 6 Marquette v. No. 11 UConn, 6:30 PM

Thank goodness we didn’t have to watch St. John’s/UConn this evening. The Golden Eagles of Marquette rallied from a ten-point halftime deficit in the Big East quarterfinals, eventually triumphing over the Johnnies by two in an overtime thriller.

We can either attribute this dogfight to St. John’s home court advantage of sorts in Madison Square Garden or Marquette’s struggles from behind the arc (26.5%). Regardless, there’s not too much to worry about when considering the nation’s sixth-best team.

UConn has, however, looked sharper than Shaka Smart’s unit as of late. The Huskies have won six straight after falling to then-no. 23 Creighton in Omaha, and they captured a 87-72 victory over Marquette the game before. Despite their mid-season slump, UConn has returned to peak form with the continued dominance of center Adama Sanogo (16.7 ppg) and guard Jordan Hawkins (16.5 ppg) – the latter of whom has been a revelation for Dan Hurley in his sophomore season.

I have to lean with the Huskies in this one. They’ve split their series with Marquette yet have played their best ball since December; moreover, UConn’s fond memories in the Garden give me reason to believe they’ll replicate the days of Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier.

No. 14 Miami v. No. 23 Duke, 7 PM

Coach Jon Scheyer has stepped in admirably in the first year of the post-Coach K era. Arguably one of the hottest teams in college basketball, Duke has rattled off seven-straight wins in conference play, swept North Carolina in the regular season and just throttled Pitt, 96-69, in the ACC quarterfinals.

From the improved play of freshman center Dereck Lively (2.3 bpg) to the backcourt tandem of junior Jeremy Roach (13.0 ppg) and freshman Tyrese Proctor (9.2 ppg), the Blue Devils have taken a significant leap after dropping 20+ point losses to Miami and NC State.

Duke derives its consistency in large part from freshman center Kyle Filipowski (15.2 ppg, 8.9 rpg). Despite posting a goose egg against Virginia, the seven-footer has posted 22 points in his last two contests and will likely play a massive role against Miami.

The Hurricanes are still flying under the radar, even as the no. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament and the no. 14 team in the nation. Coach Jim Larranaga bolstered a roster that reached the Elite Eight with two key transfer additions – Kansas State’s Nijel Pack (13.2 ppg) and Northern Illinois’ Norchad Omier (14.1 ppg, 10.0 rpg) – both of whom have been nothing short of spectacular for Miami.

Out of the ‘Canes six losses, only two are in the “bad” territory – an 18-point defeat early in the year to Maryland and a one-point heartbreaker against Florida State. Their last two games haven’t been the prettiest, but the ACC Regular Season Co-Champs have the starting five and the depth to battle with the Blue Devils again.

Expect the battle between Filipowski and Omier to be physical throughout, with Duke’s supposed advantage in the frontcourt contrasting with Miami’s weapons in the backcourt.

I’m giving it to the Blue Devils here. This team is unbelievably hot and looking to turn some heads before the Big Dance…even if it’s Duke, an underrated narrative exists.

No. 2 UCLA v. Oregon, 9 PM

UCLA will miss Jaylen Clark dearly. The Bruins’ second-leading scorer and the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year is out for the season with an Achilles tear – a brutal blow for a team fit for a Final Four run. In their first game without him, UCLA struggled – ultimately pulling away late from a ninth-seeded Colorado to seal a 80-69 win in Vegas.

Nonetheless, freshman Amari Bailey stepped up and notched 26 points – a season-high and perhaps a sign of things to come. Without Clark, the depth is thin behind this starting lineup, and the scoring will fall on Bailey (10.3 ppg) and seniors Jaime Jaquez Jr. (17.4 ppg) and Tyger Campbell (13.1 ppg).

After all, Mick Cronin’s bench accounted for three points.

The Bruins’ opponent – fourth-seeded Oregon – is extremely hard to figure out (not in the sense that they’re too good). Following a three-game losing skid, the Ducks have put four wins together albeit against four of the worst teams in the conference.

They’ve also beaten the no. 2 seed in the Pac-12 – Arizona – by 18 and exited Tempe with a five-point win over a bubble team in Arizona State. They’re not bad.

Everything hinges on the health of senior center N’Faly Dante (13.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg), who claims to be ready to go after suffering from an ankle tweak in the quarterfinals. Dante – alongside senior transfer Jermaine Couisnard (13.2 ppg) – have paced the Ducks throughout the season and are fighting to keep their tournament hopes alive.

With Clark out for UCLA, Couisnard and the rest of Oregon’s guards may see a slight advantage – assuming that Campbell will match up against the Ducks’ Will Richardson (12.2 ppg, 5.2 apg). Meanwhile, Dante will once again clash with the 6’10 freshman Adem Bona. Luckily for the Ducks, they have two seven-footers on the bench in case of injury to their leading scorer or if foul trouble arises.

A veteran starting lineup which features four seniors and one junior will be hungry to upset the Bruins tonight. I foresee the Ducks preying on UCLA’s thin roster – giving them a chance to take on either Arizona or Arizona State in the finals.

Other matchups:

No. 7 Texas v. No. 22 TCU: Timmy Allen (10.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is out for the ‘Horns, so I’m going with an “upset” from TCU here.

No. 3 Kansas v. Iowa State: Kansas looked dominant against West Virginia and is one of the few teams that can dissect the Cyclones’ defense.

No. 15 Xavier v. No. 23 Creighton: The Bluejays will outmuscle the Musketeers in the frontcourt after the loss of Zach Freemantle.

No. 18 Texas A&M v. Arkansas: Watch out for the Razorbacks, who could make a run in the SEC Tournament with such a talented freshman core.
Saturday preview: Drama in the ACC, a Big 12 road gauntlet and must-see TV in Westwood

March 4th, 2023
By: William Smythe

The last weekend of the regular season is upon us. Conference tournament seeding and regular season titles still hang in the balance – well, at least in the ACC – while several teams have already clinched their respective conferences. Kansas, Alabama, UCLA, Purdue and Marquette have already gained the regular season title for five of the six major conferences; this would be the Golden Eagles’ first Big East title in program history.

Even with many of the at-large spots locked in, Saturday couldn’t be more important for teams on the bubble and top-25 programs looking to ascend in the rankings. The “witching hour” of sorts for college basketball, this last weekend of conference play will likely replicate what we’ll see in the Big Dance: anarchy.

What’s on the docket today? Let’s dive in.

ACC title up for grabs (put Duke-North Carolina on hold)

Unbelievably, Duke and North Carolina’s matchup tonight holds zero ramifications for the ACC regular season title. As we all thought before the season, Miami, Virginia and Pitt are the sole contenders to take a share of the title (or win outright, but you have to depend on Louisville).

Pitt squandered a chance at an outright victory after a horrendous loss on the road to Notre Dame, yet they have a bounce-back opportunity at Miami – a team they beat by three over a month ago.

All three teams are currently tied at 14-5 in the ACC. It is now a question of whether Miami or Pitt will take their share of the ACC title, while we have to imagine that Virginia takes care of business against a 4-26 Louisville in Charlottesville.

A tie-breaker will only count against the Cavaliers in the ACC Tournament, since they lost to both teams earlier this season. Either the Hurricanes or the Panthers – whose ascendancy has come as a surprise after years of mediocrity – will break the mold in 2023 even if they tie with Virginia. Miami hasn’t won the regular season title since 2013, while the Panthers don’t even have one to boast.

The 6 PM matchup in South Florida will shape up to be a classic, with two teams playing for everything early in March.

Big 12’s elite face stiff road tests, Kansas-Texas matchup looms

Things would have looked a lot different if no. 9 Texas stole one away from no. 22 TCU last week. The Longhorns are now officially out of contention for the Big 12 title and are stuck in a three-way tie for second – with a win over the no. 3 Jayhawks only significant for seeding both in the conference tournament and in the Big Dance. Pride, of course, is on the line for the Longhorns in Austin.

Vegas backs Texas, and for good reason. Coach Rodney Terry’s crew hasn’t lost in the Moody Center since January 3rd against Kansas State. Having already fallen to the Jayhawks in Lawrence earlier this season, 88-80, the Longhorns will be fired up and ready to salvage some dignity – and gain some seeding points – in a matchup that could’ve lived up to the billing if not for the TCU loss.

I’ll side with the house and take Texas to cover against Kansas – giving them a greater chance at a high seed in the Big 12 tournament and keeping them firmly in the two-seed conversation come March Madness.

Two other Big 12 squads – no. 11 Kansas State and no. 22 TCU – will take to the road and attempt to end their regular season on a high note. Facing the wildly inconsistent West Virginia (12-4 home, 3-8 away), the Wildcats have nonetheless found themselves as road ‘dawgs in Morgantown; with wins over then-no. 11 Iowa State, no. 15 Auburn and no. 14 TCU at home, the Mountaineers don’t welcome opposing teams with open arms.

However, don’t look too far into home court advantage. The Wildcats are still trying to play their way into a no. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament and have shown resolve on the road – having beaten Texas and then-no. 19 Baylor in back-to-back away games. They’ve been inconsistent as of late, yet a combination of point guard Markquis Nowell (16.8 ppg) and forward Keyontae Johnson (17.6 ppg) can break through the Mountaineers’ press.

No. 22 TCU is in trouble against Oklahoma. Following a massive home win against Texas, the Horned Frogs may be primed for a letdown this afternoon.

Arizona-UCLA must-see TV in another edition of “Pac-12 After Dark”

Mick Cronin’s Bruins have benefited from a lighter Pac-12 schedule. The outright winners of the “Conference of Champions,” UCLA has won nine straight and haven’t lost in Pauley Pavilion all season. Now – with the Pac-12 all but wrapped up for the Bruins – a win over the no. 8 Wildcats would likely cement their status as a one-seed in the Big Dance.

Arizona’s been sketchy on the road – having lost most recently to a 13-17 Stanford by nine – but their frontcourt could test the Bruins in a heavyweight Pac-12 matchup.

Wildcat forward Azuolas Tubelis (19.7 ppg) should match up with the Bruins’ Jaime Jaquez Jr. (17.3 ppg) – a mano-y-mano battle for Pac-12 Player of the Year. Don’t be surprised if one of the two (or both) get into some foul trouble in a physical contest down in the paint. Stanford managed to force four fouls off of Tubelis – who scored a season-low four points.

Here’s the dilemma: if Purdue falters, UCLA could take the one spot in the East. Now, if they fall to the two line, they could potentially secure that spot in the West. Would Cronin’s unit rather play in front of the SoCal faithful, or bump up to the one seed and navigate an East Coast crowd? I say the former, so I guess the Bruins win in both scenarios here against Arizona.

Other notes:
- Villanova hosts no. 14 UConn at 7:30; the Wildcats need a win to give them a glimmer of hope at gaining an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament
- Duke-North Carolina looks to shift back to the Tar Heels thanks to the series’ parity
- No. 23 Kentucky needs to bounce back against Arkansas after losing to Vandy at Rupp
- No. 12 Tennessee will enter “The Jungle” at Auburn as road ‘dawgs
- Watch out for an upset of no. 2 Alabama by no. 24 Texas A&M (even though Vegas loves the Aggies in this one)