By: George Ahearn

As conference tournament season kicks off, the notorious “bubble watch” intensifies. What makes bubble watch so intriguing is the mixed bag of teams that rest in this uneasy position. We have teams like North Carolina – who are threatening to become the first preseason no. 1 ranked team to not make the tournament. Boise State, Utah State, San Diego State, Nevada and New Mexico have the potential to make the Mountain West a five-bid league.

Charleston – who, despite holding a 28-3 record and finding themselves in the top-25 earlier this season – is in a position to not make the tournament barring a CAA tournament win. Michigan and the ever-polarizing Hunter Dickinson – who saved his team’s tournament chances with a game-tying hoist from three – sit slightly amongst the “outside looking in” crew. 

All of this is just a glimpse into what bubble watch will hold during this time of the year. To truly show you all the angles, I’m going to be detailing each team and whether or not we will see them play in the Big Dance in a few weeks. 

*Bubble teams based upon ESPN insider John Gasaway’s “Bubble Watch 2023: Brace yourself for NCAA tournament drama” article as well as Joe Lunardi’s bracketology*

At the moment, Gasaway has the bubble consisting of 32 teams for 21 available slots. I’ll detail each conference’s teams and whether or not I see them making the tournament. 

IN: NC State, Pitt, UNC, WVU, Providence, NW, MSU, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan, USC, ASU, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Mizzou, Auburn, Miss St, Memphis, Boise St, Florida Atlantic, Oral Roberts (aq), Charleston (aq)

OUT: Clemson, Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Penn St., Oregon, Nevada, Utah St., North Texas

ACC: NC State, Pitt, UNC, Clemson

True bubble teams: UNC, Clemson

North Carolina Tar Heels

Yes. I refuse to believe that this team rolls over. Step one was beating UVA at home – which they did in dominant fashion. Now, the Tar Heels have some momentum and should build more from their win against Florida State before a rematch in Cameron Indoor against Duke.

If the Tar Heels win in Cameron on Saturday, that should be all that’s needed to move the needle. A revenge-seeking, motivated UNC team will get the job done. 

Clemson Tigers

No. Despite starting conference play 7-0 and compiling a 21-8 record, the Tigers resume is weak, and Brad Brownell’s squad has been fading. They lost games to Boston College (14-15, 8-10 ACC) and Louisville (4-25, 2-16 ACC), and own a weak non-conference schedule that includes losses to South Carolina (10-19, 3-13 SEC) and Loyola Chicago (9-19, 3-13 MVC).

However, they have a matchup on the road at no. 13 Virginia later tonight, and a win could see them enter the field of 68. 

Big 12: Oklahoma St., West Virginia, Texas Tech

True bubble teams in my mind: All three

Oklahoma State Cowboys

No. Oklahoma State had a golden opportunity to cement themselves in the field of 68 when shorthanded Baylor traveled to the ‘Pokes on Monday night without star freshman guard Keyonte George. Yet, the Cowboys squandered this opportunity and now sit amongst Lunardi’s “last four out.” Losers of five straight, it seems as if the ’Pokes have played themselves out of tournament position.

The Big 12 is good, but not good enough where a 16-14 record gets you into the tournament. 

West Virginia Mountaineers

Yes. The Big 12 rates so well that they have more than enough quality wins to be seen as an NCAA tournament-worthy team. Their win at Iowa State last night should carry Bob Huggins’ squad into the NCAA tournament. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders

No. Despite their late season turnaround – including wins over highly-ranked Kansas State and Texas – it’s too little too late for the Red Raiders. Owning an 0-8 conference record is nearly impossible to bounce-back from, but Mark Adams’ crew has put forth a valiant effort to turn their season around.

They look like a team worthy of playing in the tournament, but it isn’t about how you enter the tournament. It’s a season-long quest, and Texas Tech did not play the part all season. 

Big East: Providence

True bubble teams in my mind: None

Big Ten: Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State

True bubble teams in my mind: Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn St.

Wisconsin Badgers

No. Wisconsin suffered heartbreak as they dropped a road game to the Wolverines thanks to a Hunter Dickinson three-ball to send the game to OT; now, they find themselves in an even more precarious position.

I don’t see the Badgers making a run in the Big Ten tournament, and, barring a home win against Purdue, I imagine that the Badgers will be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday. 

Michigan Wolverines

Yes. As mentioned above, the Wolverines saved their postseason dreams with a miraculous Dickinson three-ball. However, they still remain on the outside of bracket predictions. Michigan has the talent to make a run, and Juwan Howard has a history of willing his teams to better play in March. They have the opportunities in front of them, with two road games at Illinois and Indiana to close the season.

I imagine they win at least one of these games and another game in the Big Ten tournament to solidify their position in the field of 68. 

Penn State Nittany Lions

No. Penn State suffered a backbreaking collapse against Rutgers Sunday night, in which they surrendered a 17-point comeback to the Scarlet Knights. Penn State has been remarkable this year under prominent play from star point guard Jalen Pickett, yet I do not think it’s enough.

They finish the season at Northwestern and at home against No. 21 Maryland. They most likely need both these games to see themselves in the tournament field, and that’s a tall task…

Pac-12: USC, Arizona State, Oregon

True bubble teams in my mind: USC, Arizona State, Oregon

USC Trojans

Yes. Andy Enfield’s team has won four in a row and sit in a favorable bubble position. They finish the regular season with two at-home matchups against Arizona and Arizona State. The regular-season finale could tip the scales between USC and ASU to see who sneaks into the tournament, but I expect USC – even if they lose their next two – to save their season in the Pac-12 tournament.

This USC squad has tournament experience, and I expect to see them back in the tournament for a second consecutive year. 

Arizona State Sun Devils

Yes. Arizona State celebrated one of the most miraculous shots of the year against No. 7 Arizona when Desmond Cambridge Jr. struck nothing but net from behind half court. Coach Bobby Hurley’s reaction to that shot will tell you everything about how big of a shot that was for this team. A road win against a top-10 opponent saw the Sun Devils’ tournament odds skyrocket.

They have a looming test against no. 4 UCLA before finishing the season at USC. Either of these wins would see the Sun Devils into the field, and I think they have the momentum to carry them into March.

Oregon Ducks

No. Normally I trust Dana Altman in March, and, while a Ducks run in the Pac-12 tournament wouldn’t surprise me, I think they sit too far behind the pack. They have a 16-13 record and failed to win any of their non-conference Quad-1 opportunities – falling to Houston, UConn and Michigan State.

Losing three of their last four, I think it’s fair to rule the Ducks out of this year’s tournament. 

SEC: A&M, Arkansas, Mizzou, Auburn, Mississippi State

True bubble teams in my mind: Mizzou, Auburn, Mississippi State

Missouri Tigers

Yes. The front-half of the Tigers’ season looks like a sure-fire tournament resume. They destroyed no. 16 Illinois, 93-71, then – in the following game – beat up on no. 19 Kentucky, 89-75. They beat No. 12 Iowa State, 78-61, and then no. 6 Tennessee in a thriller, 86-85. Surely, this resume garners a NCAA tournament bid.

However, only Tennessee and Kentucky are still ranked amongst those four teams, and Missouri has looked shaky compared to their early season triumphs. The Tigers still look the part of a tournament team, and currently sit as a no. 10 seed in Lunardi’s latest bracket.

As long as they close out the season against LSU and Ole Miss, the Tigers should see their first tournament berth since 2020. 

Auburn Tigers

Yes. The Tigers have been fading over the last month and look like one of the weaker tournament teams in the projected field. Yet, your season-long body of work is what’s judged – not how you enter the tournament – and Bruce Pearl’s Tigers will see themselves in the tournament.

A win in either of their final two games against no. 2 Alabama or no. 12 Tennessee would solidify their candidacy.

Mississippi State

Yes. Mississippi State sits amongst the “last four in” of Lunardi’s latest bracket prediction – jumping into the field with a grind-it-out home win against no. 25 Texas A&M. They’ve been the losers of five straight – and then the winners of five straight – but head coach Chris Jans has done enough in his first year to lead the Bulldogs to the NCAA tournament.

Up next for the Bulldogs? Take care of business against lowly South Carolina and Vanderbilt to close out your season. 

Mid-Majors: Memphis, Boise State, Nevada, Utah State, Florida Atlantic, Oral Roberts, Charleston, North Texas

True bubble teams in my mind: Memphis, Boise St., Nevada, Utah St., Oral Roberts, Charleston, North Texas

Memphis

Yes. Thankfully for Memphis, the AAC tournament shouldn’t challenge them significantly until they presumably face Houston in the championship. While I don’t fully trust Penny Hardaway, the Tigers should take care of business in the AAC tournament and sneak into the field of 68. 

Boise State

Yes. Boise State has one of their biggest games of the season tonight against no. 18 San Diego St., and a win would likely lock in their bid for the NCAA tournament. Even with a loss, I believe the Broncos will be playing in the tournament.

The Mountain West has a load of high-quality teams, and this league should certainly have two representatives in the tournament – with Boise State and SDSU making the cut.

Nevada

No. Nevada suffered a horrendous loss Monday night when they visited Wyoming (9-20, 4-13 MW). This loss severely hurts their tournament odds, and, barring a Mountain West championship, I don’t expect to see the Wolfpack in the tournament. 

Utah State

No. Similarly to Nevada, they would most likely need to win the conference tournament in order to receive a bid to the NCAA tournament. They’ve lost both matchups against SDSU, split with Nevada and are 0-1 against Boise State at the moment.

While the Aggies have some solid out-of-conference wins, the fourth-best team in the Mountain West is going to have trouble justifying their spot in the tournament. 

Florida Atlantic Owls

Yes. I believe FAU will win the C-USA tournament and earn an automatic qualifier bid; yet, even if the Owls lose to a team like North Texas in the tournament, their resume could keep them in the field of 68. 26-3 is an impressive record regardless of what conference you play in, and this record should see the Owls into the tournament.

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Yes. Owning a 18-0 conference record, it feels near impossible that the Golden Eagles do not win the Summit League tournament and receive the AQ bid for the conference. However, if Max Abmas and the Eagles lost in the tournament, I fear they would be left on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday. 

College of Charleston Cougars

Yes. College of Charleston had a tremendous start to their season – earning them a top-25 ranking during the early part of the season. However, a couple of stumbles throughout the end of the season has the Cougars in a precarious position. They will most likely need to win the CAA to make the tournament.

Thankfully for Cougars fans, I expect this to become a reality in the coming weeks.

North Texas Mean Green

No. A road loss to Charlotte essentially took the Mean Green off the bubble and eliminated their tournament hopes. However, they are more than capable of winning the C-USA tournament and earning an AQ bid. 

By: George Ahearn

There are 13 total days until the calendar flips to March, meaning only one thing- it’s about the time where various Final Four combinations endlessly swirl around my head until the tournament unfolds. The turmoil we’ve seen within our AP top-ten has me hopeful for one of the more chaotic tournaments in recent memory.

This expected chaos makes me believe there is value to be had with some longshot Final Four futures. The madness that is the tournament creates value in some longshot futures for teams to make the Final Four, and this year’s setting up to deliver at least one unforeseen team to ride their momentum all the way to Houston.

So, who are the teams to throw a little cheddar on  to make that improbable run to the Final Four?

*Odds by Fanduel*

Houston Cougars: +130

To be completely honest, this is not a value bet. +130 is horrendous odds for a team to make the Final Four –  as there is an abundance of variables that play into a team making the Final Four – and some of these variables are out of a team’s control.

+130 for a team to win four straight games when every team is playing to extend their season is hard to swallow; yet, it is hard to imagine a world in which Houston does not reach the Final Four. Heading in the direction of earning the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, the Cougars will be backed by heavy fan presence throughout the tournament.

On top of this, the Cougars are the best defensive team in the nation – allowing only 55 points per game to opposing teams and holding the nation’s highest point differential at +20.5. They have experience with Marcus Sasser, Jamal Shead and Tramon Mark, as well as one of the best freshmen in the nation in Jarace Walker.

Led by a legendary coach in Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars will be playing in San Antonio, and I am willing to eat the +130 and take them to make the Final Four.

Creighton Blue Jays: +550

Creighton was a team that came into the season with serious national title aspirations. However, a midseason slump saw the Blue Jays fall out of people’s Final Four predictions and more into the bubble conversation.

Fortunately, the Blue Jays never gave up on themselves and have risen all the way back into the AP top-20 where they belong. The best time to get in on the Blue Jays has passed, as their slump sent their odds into outer space.

Yet, the resilience they have already displayed this season is more than encouraging, and that resilience will be needed in March. They have a starting five with little weaknesses, and one that complements each other greatly. Their starting five is one of the most complete in the nation, with all five players averaging double figures. They have experience at the point guard position with Ryan Nembhard, a force inside in (7’1”, 256 lbs) Ryan Kalkbrenner, steady wing play from Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander and lights-out shooting from South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman.

On top of this talent, they are led by long-tenured head coach Greg McDermott – who has plenty of tournament experience and success. This Blue Jays team has the making of a national title contender, and at +550 they are my favorite value pick to make it to the Final Four.

I even took the Blue Jays at +1000 the other week.

TCU Horned Frogs+ 650

As popular college basketball analyst Jon Rothstein recently tweeted, peak TCU is the best team in the Big 12, and I wholeheartedly agree.

The Horned Frogs are in the midst of a slump, having lost five of their last six, but this slump is easily explainable. The ‘Frogs have been without their two most impactful players – big man (6’11”, 262 lbs) Eddie Lampkin and the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year – Mike Miles Jr. While Lampkin defines who TCU is on the court, this team is essentially incapable of winning without Miles Jr.

To put into perspective the impact Miles has, this same TCU team without him lost a home game early in the season to Northwestern State. With Miles and Lampkin on the court, this team can – and will – beat any team in the nation.

Tenacious in the open court and prone to turning the other team over, they thrive on other team’s weaknesses, and this ability leads me to love the value in +650 for the Horned Frogs to make the Final Four. If you want to bet the Frogs, I would place it now before the return of these two stars has TCU trending upwards.

Gonzaga Bulldogs: +850

I’m sure the majority of you are tired of people telling you to take Gonzaga to win it all, just for them to let you down year after year. Yet, this year, it seems nobody is talking about the ‘Zags – a sentiment that feels dangerous when dealing with a Drew Timme and Mark Few-led team.

The ‘Zags score the ball at the highest clip in the nation – averaging 86.3 points per game (1st in the nation) with a 52% field goal percentage (also 1st in the nation). These offensive numbers are staggering, yet it seems the public is discounting the ‘Zags. Maybe it was them suffering their first home loss since 2018 to a sneaky good Loyola Marymount team, or maybe it’s the idea that people have seen better Gonzaga teams come up short.

Regardless, I refuse to be one of the fools to count the ‘Zags out, and I will ride this +850 value of a Mark Few-coached team to make the Final Four.

While people typically choose Gonzaga due to their regular season dominance, this year I believe the ‘Zags will be a beneficiary of their in-season stumbles, and this adversity will help them reach Houston.

Arkansas: +1500

The Razorbacks have had an up and down season, and a team that entered the season as an AP top-10 team is currently unranked and flirting with the bubble. However, the Razorbacks have a top-tier roster, as two of the more talented freshmen in the nation – Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr – play for Eric Musselman’s squad.

Smith Jr. recently made his return to the court after nursing a knee injury, and his reintegration into this Razorbacks team could see them return to the dominance fans were expecting entering the season.

Over the last two seasons, Musselman has led the Razorback to back-to-back Elite Eights, and last year’s squad pulled off an incredible upset in the Sweet 16 against No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga. Musselman clearly understands what it takes to win in March, and the last two years he has exceeded expectations.

On top of this coaching and freshman talent, the Razorbacks leading scorer – Ricky Council – has shades of J.D. Notae – the legendary Razorback that fans fell in love with and a player who was remembered for his clutch gene. The combination of stellar coaching, exciting freshmen and a steady veteran makes the +1500 value of the Razorbacks too juicy to ignore.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: +2500

The gritty, grind-it-out Scarlet Knights at +2500 odds is simply too good of a value. Some of you may believe that my love for the Scarlet Knights is lunacy, but the love is deserved.

Their top 5 scorers – Cliff Omoruyi, Cam Spencer, Aundre Hyatt, Caleb McConnell and Paul Mulcahy – have experience that quite possibly no other tournament team will be able to match. Omoruyi is a junior, Spencer a senior, Hyatt a junior, McConnell a 5th year and Mulcahy a senior. A team with this experience and this level of desire to put together a meaningful run in their last season together will pay dividends in March. I cannot explain this idea thoroughly, but, if you watch college basketball, you understand why this level of experience can translate to wins.

I cannot wait to see the path in front of the Scarlet Knights once tournament time comes, and I wholeheartedly expect them to pull off some upsets.

West Virginia Mountaineers: +3500

West Virginia currently resides as one of bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s “last four byes” and firmly sit on the bubble, making the thought of the Mountaineers venturing to Houston for this year’s Final Four outrageous.

However, we are looking for value, and there is value with West Virginia – not much, but value. First, head coach Bob Huggins is no rookie to the NCAA tournament. Huggins has been to the tournament ten times with the Mountaineers, even reaching one Final Four in 2010.

A shared characteristic of Huggins’ teams is their tenacity on the defensive end of the floor. If they are going to make a Cinderella run, their defense will have to be the accelerator. On top of their defense, they have a balanced scoring attack, with five players averaging double figures. Hall of fame coaching, a balanced offense that can attack you from every position and a tenacious defense will be a recipe for disaster for any opponent in March.

The Mountaineers will just need to put all the pieces together every single game. Also, the Mountaineers are shockingly in the top-20 of the Ken Pomerey ratings – a system that is notable for predicting who are the true contenders of the tournament.

The Mountaineers have the ingredients it takes to make the Final Four, and, while it’s still a longshot, +3500 is worth a sprinkle.

Predicting who will be in the Final Four is always an entertaining but nearly impossible task, and hopefully these descriptions can give you insight into the longshot you want to ride all the way to Houston.

By: George Ahearn

The Houston Cougars have been knocking on the door of a national title appearance the last two years, and the knocks have only been getting louder.
Two years ago, the Cougars traveled all the way to the Final Four, where they were defeated by eventual national champion Baylor.

This squad was led by eventual NBA talents Quentin Grimes and Dejon Jarreau, but two integral pieces of this team were young studs Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead. The following season, the Cougars traveled to New Orleans to compete in the Final Four, where they eventually fell to No. 2 seed Villanova. Three integral pieces of this squad: Marcus Sasser, Jamal Shead and Tramon Mark.

Unfortunately for this Cougars team, Sasser, who was averaging 17.7 points per game, was ruled out for the season in late December with a season-ending toe injury. On top of this injury, Walker was sidelined for the rest of the 2021-22 season due to shoulder surgery in late December as well. Despite these injuries to key players, head coach Kelvin Sampson was still able to lead his team all the way to the Final Four.

All of these successful tournament teams were supported and led by outstanding upperclassmen, yet all three of these young guns – Mark, Sasser and Shead, have been able to experience outstanding tournament success – an invaluable trait in the chaos that is March Madness.

This season, the combination of Sasser, Shead, and Mark – coupled with outstanding play from freshman Jarace Walker and junior J’Wan Roberts – has the Cougars sitting at No. 2 in this week’s AP Poll with a 23-2 season record. Their only losses on the season came to newly-ranked No. 1 Alabama and a tough loss to conference foe Temple by a score of 56-55.

This year, Houston will look to finally kick down the door and win a national title, and they have as good of a chance as anyone. They currently sit as the favorites to win it all at +700 – being trailed by Alabama, Arizona and Kansas, respectively. Oftentimes, people discount the Cougars due to their weak conference schedule. While yes – the AAC is not on par with other top conferences – the Cougars would unquestionably thrive in any conference in the nation, and their recent tournament success demonstrates this belief.

Thankfully for the Cougars, they will join the B12 following this season and can silence their critics while picking up more valuable in-conference experience before entering the tournament.

Getting over the hump in college basketball is extremely difficult – maybe more difficult than any other sport – as the nature of a 68-team, single elimination tournament makes it nearly impossible for the best team to win it all. So, Houston putting together back-to-back deep runs – despite facing major injuries – is quite telling.

What it tells us is that whatever Kelvin Sampson has been building in Houston has the potential to win the whole thing, and this might his best opportunity ever. Sampson may be the best coach in the nation to never win a national title, as he’s been to the tournament 18 times and reached two Final Fours.

He has the pedigree and the experience to understand what it takes to win in March.

The Cougars are fully healthy and will almost certainly earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament – possibly even the No. 1 overall seed – placing them in a favorable region. Their tenacity on defense is palpable, as they are the best defensive team in the nation – only allowing 55 points per game to opponents.

They have every ingredient a title team needs: a top-tier head coach, talented veterans, exciting freshman, a forceful defense, and a hunger that no other team in nation can match.

Houston is one of my final four teams, and I genuinely hope Kelvin Sampson can capture that elusive national title to add to his resume – cementing the 67-year old’s legacy.

By: George Ahearn

The UNC Tar Heels had one of the greater underdog title runs in recent memory last year, as the No. 8 seed entering the tournament made a magical run that ended at the hands of Kansas in the national title game. In only Hubert Davis’ first year at the helm, he led the Tar Heels back to the Final Four – leaving little doubt about Roy Williams’ successor. 

However, Davis’ second year as head coach hasn’t been all sunshine and roses.

The Tar Heels currently sit at 16-10 and ninth in the ACC following tonight’s home loss to No. 15 Miami. 

Yesterday’s loss to the ‘Canes should sound the alarms in Chapel Hill. Entering tonight’s matchup, bracketologist Joe Lunardi had the Tar Heels as a projected 11 seed despite their 0-8 record in Quad 1 matchups. 

At home – against a top-15 team – is the perfect opportunity to build your resume and build momentum. Yet, the Heels blundered, falling 80-72 in a game in which they shot five of 31 from behind the arc and 60% from the line. 

With five conference games remaining before postseason play, now’s the time for the ‘Heels to turn it up and keep their tournament hopes alive. They finish conference play with potential Q1 wins ahead, as they travel to No. 23 NC State, face No. 7 UVA at home and finish their season in Chapel Hill with a rematch against the Blue Devils.

So, what’s the fix for the Tar Heels moving forward? It starts with forgetting last year’s title run.

While last year’s run will forever be special in the Tar Heels hearts, this year’s team – despite keeping many key pieces – is not the same.

A large part of this comes from the departure of Brady Manek, yet the talent is still there for the Tar Heels – one of the best teams in the nation thanks to their three-headed monster of Armando Bacot, R.J. Davis and Caleb Love. 

If I were Hubert Davis, the first aspect of this team I would attempt to fix would be as follows: more R.J. Davis, and especially more of him in clutch time. While yes, Caleb Love has cemented his “clutch” UNC moment due to last year’s heroics in the tournament, Davis feels more composed in high-level situations when watching Carolina play. Obviously, do not turn away from Caleb Love – as the 17 ppg scorer remains a massive part of your offense – but reassure him that he doesn’t have to make every big-time shot. 

Outside of the stud backcourt duo, the Carolina frontcourt is stout. Forward Armando Bacot is acting like himself – averaging a classic Mondo 17 and 11 statline – and Leaky Black is a sure-fire first team All-ACC defender. However, where the Tar Heels truly miss help is in that other forward slot, where Brady Manek’s shoes are being filled by Northwestern transfer Pete Nance. 

Nance averaged an impressive 14 ppg at Northwestern and was highly-regarded in the transfer portal. While he still averages double-digits at Carolina, that same tenacious scorer hasn’t been present for this Hubert Davis squad. 

While their offense is still one of the top units in the conference, their defense is bottom-half in the ACC – giving up an unimpressive 72 ppg to opponents. Only Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Florida State and Louisville give up more points per game in the conference, and these teams own a combined record of 38-64. Clearly the ‘Heels need to increase their tenacity on the defensive end if they want to turn their season around and return to the Final Four.

The issues are obvious with the Tar Heels, but do not get me wrong – UNC talent-wise is still undoubtedly tournament-worthy. They simply need a shift in mindset, and that starts with Hubert Davis.

The man that rallied last year’s team to the Final Four – when nobody believed they had the ability – needs to fire his squad up for the final stretch.

More tenacity, more driving to the rim, more movement, more discipline. These are the things that are necessary for North Carolina. While these are all losing-team qualities, they’re all fixable simultaneously.

This Tar Heels team is immensely talented, and no team with three 15+ scorers and this experience should miss the tournament. Hopefully, Davis, Bacot and Love realize the urgency this team is facing and will end their last season all together on a positive note.

I expect Hubert Davis to hone in on these facets of his team and see his Tar Heels make another run to the tournament.

By: George Ahearn

As we bend the corner approaching conference tournament season, the AP rankings become more and more interesting to analyze. Who’s moving up, who’s moving down, who’s jumping who; all becomes important after weeks of relatively arbitrary rankings.

This week provides us with multiple, varying discussions as we try and shape our mental image of who will thrive in March. At the end of the day, that’s the season-long question we are all trying to answer. 

While the AP poll is often not a reliable tool in measuring a team’s validity, it becomes important when the question of seeding arises, as these rankings are a basis for determining a team’s resume. 

Now, let’s get into the discussions of the AP’s opinions of this year’s top teams.

Texas enters Top 5 under Interim Head Coach Terry

Texas is back in the AP top-five for the first time since Week 5, yet their team looks significantly different since the Longhorns sat at No. 2 in the nation. The firing of head coach Chris Beard presumed to be a wretch in the Longhorns season, and a team with substantial experience would have to work diligently to overcome this roadblock. With the help of coach Terry, that is exactly what they have done.

This past week, Texas has played No. 11 Baylor and traveled to No. 7 Kansas State for a highly anticipated road matchup. The Longhorns came away victorious in both matchups, bringing them up from No. 9 to No. 5. Texas is in the midst of one of the most brutal four-game stretches any team in the nation will face this season, as they traveled to No. 4 Tennessee prior to their wins against Baylor and K-State, and finish this stretch tonight with a matchup against Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse.

Regardless of tonight’s outcome, Rodney Terry and this experienced team should be given their flowers for strongly overcoming their adversity, and will be a tough out for any team in March. 

Jerome Tang’s squad has come back to Earth

Kansas State was predicted by many to finish last in the Big 12. However, in head coach Jerome Tang’s first year, he has the Wildcats playing like a top team in the nation. A large part of their unsuspected success is due to the unprecedented comeback of forward Keyontae Johnson, who averages 18 points per game and is a candidate for this year’s All-American teams.

While the success for the Wildcats has been tremendous, they finally came back to Earth this past week in which they fell on the road to Kansas and surrendered a 14-point comeback to Texas at home.

While these losses are obviously not ideal, Kansas State is still in a remarkable position given their preseason expectations, and will have the opportunity to bounce back at TCU on Tuesday. The Wildcats still sit at No. 12 in this week’s poll.

Marquette enters Top-10 for first time under Shaka

Head coach Shaka Smart came to Marquette with aspirations of returning to the Final Four, and this year’s team might provide him with his best opportunity ever. Marquette enters the top-ten for the first time in Smart’s two-year tenure, and the Golden Eagles have won five straight.

Although they’ve gotten hot, Marquette was the beneficiary of other top teams losing and falling out of the top-ten, as the only two games Marquette played last week were home games against (10-12) Villanova and (11-13) Butler.

The Golden Eagles have a tough contest upcoming at No. 21 UConn that will decide if Marquette is truly a top-ten; regardless, the buzz is real in Milwaukee, and head coach Shaka Smart will try and lead his team past the first weekend for the first time since 2012.

Saint Mary’s jumps the ‘Zags… Barely

Saint Mary’s pulled off a thrilling comeback overtime victory against conference rival Gonzaga on Saturday, catapulting them to No. 15 in this week’s poll – one ahead of the ‘Zags at No. 16. The ‘Zags are touted as the “big dog” of the WCC, and anytime someone within the conference beats them, the rest celebrate.

However, this year’s Saint Mary’s team might be this year’s “big dog” of the conference. Saint Mary’s is ranked above Gonzaga for the first time since 2017, and long-time head coach Randy Bennett has one of his most lethal squads ever.

Gonzaga has looked vulnerable at times this year, unlike any previous Drew Timme-led ‘Zags squad, and the race for the WCC will be intense. Watch for the Gaels and the ‘Zags matchup in Spokane later this season to decide the regular season winner. 

NC State joins the party for the first time this season

Kevin Keatts has finally returned NC State to significant relevance since he took over the head coaching job in 2017. The Wolfpack – led by outstanding guard Terquavion Smith – are playing like on the best teams in the ACC, and have serious tournament aspirations more than just making the tournament.

NC State is on a four-game win streak, and this past week took care of business against FSU and Georgia Tech. They lead the ACC in ppg at 79.6 and have amassed an impressive 19-5 record.

They’ll face their most difficult test of the season this Tuesday when they travel to Charlottesville to face the No. 8 ranked Virginia Cavaliers, as a win here could see them fly up in the rankings. 

Creighton and Rutgers rejoin the ranks

Both squads have newfound momentum and are riding winning streaks that have brought them back into the AP top-25. Creighton has won six straight – including a dominant 84-67 win over No. 13 Xavier. The Blue Jays have one of the more stacked squads in the nation, yet their early season struggles caused them to be overlooked.

However, head coach Greg McDermott has the Blue Jays back on track, and they have rekindled that juice that they came into the season with. 

Rutgers won both of their games over the previous week – including a home-thumping over Minnesota and a gritty win over the ever-fierce Michigan State.

The Scarlet Knights are one of the nation’s more interesting teams, as they don’t have a clear “star” but continuously demonstrate their ability to win games. They have a massive upcoming game against the Hoosiers in Assembly Hall, and they’ll have an opportunity to build more momentum as we approach March.