Category: College Basketball

Midseason CBB Takeaways: Purdue on the cusp of a U.Va. redemption year?

January 6th, 2024

By: William Smythe

As we all likely expected, parity has dominated the college basketball landscape. The transfer portal and NIL has evolved – whether you like it or not – to even the playing field, especially in conferences such as the Big East and Big 12 (cannibalization inbound). It’s grown increasingly difficult to take road games, in particular, as litmus tests for every squad hovering around the top 25; unless you’re U.Va., you can afford to drop a few away from home.

You could argue that the bottom five spots in the AP Poll could belong to twenty deserving rosters. The talent is stretched across the D-1 realm – including a surprise year from the Mountain West, who may field 4+ tournament teams – and surprises have abounded. However, there may be a massive gap between the top few or so teams and the “rest,” but that is still up for debate. Let’s begin with a team who is distancing themselves…

Purdue hasn’t lost a step from their 2022-23 regular season form

Fairleigh Dickinson overshadowed what was a masterclass in coaching from Matt Painter last season. The Boilermakers won both the regular season B10 title and the conference tournament, boasting arguably the school’s finest season up until disaster in March struck. This year, Purdue has returned with a vengeance. Painter, wisely enough, scheduled another brutal non-conference slate with contests against Tennessee, Marquette, Gonzaga and Arizona, alongside games against what-would-be weaker opponents in Xavier and Alabama.

The Boilermakers somehow escaped unscathed from the lion’s den on the 7’4 shoulders of Zach Edey – complemented well by sophomore guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. The former may just be the straw that stirs the drink for Purdue, having combined for 71 points in wins over then-No. 1 Arizona, Alabama and then-No. 4 Marquette.

The supporting cast matters if Purdue seeks to make a U.Va.-type championship run following their loss to FDU. Luckily for Painter, his team is multifaceted in a way unmatched by last year’s squad, good as they were. Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones has begun to emerge as a legitimate scoring threat alongside Loyer and the Smith, and the forwards are deep behind Edey. This seems to be the year for a Boilermaker run.

The Mountain West is churning out elite teams

By far the best G5 conference, the MW is poised to catapult up to five of their teams into the Big Dance. Led by Colorado State – who earned a six seed in March Madness two years ago – the conference has supplanted its western counterpart (the failing Pac-12) as the premier collection of teams west of the Mississippi. The Rams and the national runner-ups from last season – San Diego State – will likely stay within the top 25 for the duration of the season.

Nothing will be easy in the MW, even for the aforementioned two. New Mexico strung together 11 wins before falling at Colorado State in what was, for the most part, a highly competitive game. Utah State has the opportunity to leap into the Top 25 with a win at home tonight against the Rams (they’re -1.5), and a 13-1 Nevada should be a threat within the conference. I expect four teams to reach the Big Dance – the Rams, Aztecs, Aggies and Lobos – and the Wolfpack could continue their strong play and return to March for the first time since Eric Musselman.

The players in this conference, moreover, are dangerous. Colorado State’s Isaiah Stevens (17.4 PPG, 7.4 APG) is a surefire All-American candidate, and San Diego State’s Jaedon LeDee (21.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG) has improved tremendously after the departure of current Arizona forward Keshad Johnson. New Mexico’s Donovan Dent (16.3 PPG) is also a candidate for Most Improved, having risen to the top of a loaded backcourt as a sophomore.

Don’t be surprised if a Final Four team comes from the Mountain West.

Bluebloods North Carolina and Kentucky have shaken off preseason doubts

Kentucky’s season seemed headed for disappointment after the departures of NPOY Oscar Tshiebwe and freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston, among other transfers, yet the Wildcats’ freshmen crop is special. Enter Reed Sheppard, arguably the least talked about in the group yet the most impactful contributor for Calipari so far this season (he’s the X-factor). The Kentucky native is averaging 12.5 PPG – good for fourth on the team – while shooting 56% from three. He’s also averaged a mind-boggling 2.8 steals per game and is second on the team is assists per game (4.3).

Sheppard – alongside senior Antonio Reeves and a first-year guard duo of DJ Wagner and Rob Dillingham – has helped the Wildcats to an 11-2 start, putting to bed any concerns about their elite pedigree. There’s a brutal loss on their schedule, yes, but the seven-point home loss to UNC Wilmington a month ago is far behind Kentucky. Calipari’s squad has since beaten a No. 9 ranked UNC and recently upended a tricky Florida team on the road.

I do have to ask Reed Sheppard this, though: why foul a Gator late when you’re up four?

The Tar Heels have exceeded preseason expectations much like the Wildcats, standing in opposition to their preseason No. 1 rank last year – which turned into a rejected NIT bid at the end of the season. Much of the reason for Carolina’s reemergence has been the play of senior guard R.J. Davis, a first-team All-American in my eyes and perhaps the best pure scorer there is in college basketball. Davis – pressured less to take on point guard responsibilities with freshman Elliot Cadeau in the fold – is averaging a blistering 21.1 PPG and has made some jaw-dropping shots over the course of the year.

Graduate forward Armando Bacot remains the steady anchor of this roster, bolstered by several transfer additions – Notre Dame’s Cormac Ryan and Stanford’s Harrison Ingram – who may be replacing Brady Manek’s production in the aggregate. I expect the Tar Heels to run the table in the ACC so long as they pocket a win over Miami or Duke, a welcome thought for Carolina fans facing the “Gates of Hell-level Epitome of Brutality” after last season.

Alongside Kansas, traditional powers have performed thus far.
Why you should be excited about college basketball’s return

November 1st, 2023

By: William Smythe

Don’t get me wrong, college football is great. It’s hard to recreate the thrill of a fall Saturday once the season ends, and I often forget about “how good it truly was” in the post-NY6 era. However, college basketball is the key which unlocks arguably the greatest upcoming months for sports fans – November, December and January – with a non-conference slate awaiting us in short order. The season is arguably underway; preseason No. 9 Tennessee upended No. 4 Michigan State in a charity exhibition, No. 1 Kansas fell to No. 25 Illinois in Champaign and No. 14 Arkansas outlasted No. 3 Purdue in a raucous Bud Walton Arena.

In classic fashion, Louisville fell to D-II opponent Kentucky Wesleyan. No one’s seat is hotter than Kenny Payne.

Nonetheless, let’s unpack some of the reasons as to why it’s ok to pivot from college football for these upcoming weeks. The countdown to March officially begins Monday night.

Albeit controversial, the transfer portal continues to level the playing field

It makes sense to criticize the transfer portal. Arizona State’s Adam Miller is now onto his third school – having transferred after each season – while Hunter Dickinson requested NIL $ from suitors to convince him to leave Ann Arbor for his senior campaign. There are certainly examples of guys who leave for the wrong reasons, and it’s fair to question the prevailing notion of loyalty within college basketball. However, competition springs out of these off-season moves, and March becomes that much more hectic.

Mid-majors, thought to have suffered from the transfer portal as players seek enhanced NIL opportunities and big-time Power 5 ball, haven’t fallen into obscurity by any means. Dusty May’s Florida Atlantic dominated the C-USA and upset No. 4 Tennessee, No. 3 Kansas State and hung around with No. 5 San Diego State en route to their first Final Four appearance. Sure, March is March, but the Owls will hope to demonstrate that last season wasn’t a fluke (five total losses makes that case that much stronger) after retaining all but one significant contributor.

The portal giveth and taketh away. If you want to rebuild quickly, you now have the opportunity. If you need a plug-and-play guy who’s logged veteran minutes at a smaller school, he could be yours. Take Arkansas: the Razorbacks dipped into the portal and snagged five transfers who will all likely add value to Eric Musselman’s squad. Purdue prefers to build from within, Musselman from elsewhere. What we can all determine is that parity, via the transfer portal, is at the forefront.

The Champions Classic and the Maui Invitational

These few weeks are key “litmus tests” for teams hoping to ascend in the power rankings, and opportunities abound in non-conference tournaments such as the Champions Classic and the Maui Invitational. The former will pit preseason No. 2 Duke against No. 4 Michigan State, while No. 1 Kansas will take on fellow blue blood and the sixteenth-ranked Wildcats of Kentucky on Nov. 14. Will Duke live up to the preseason hype with their starting-five remaining intact, and will Kentucky’s freshmen core bring them back to the 2014-15 days when UK first-years reigned supreme?

The Maui Invitational, moreover, is an annual hit; many remember the 2019 final between Duke’s three-headed monster of Williamson, Barrett and Reddish and Gonzaga’s veteran core, who managed to upset the Blue Devils after a back-and-forth end to the second half. Four top-25 squads – No. 11 Gonzaga, Purdue, No. 6 Marquette, and No. 9 Tennessee – will take to the court from November 20-22, and don’t count out UCLA either. No need to get up from the couch when the Maui Invitational is televised.

I’m missing dozens of other non-conference tournaments. What is abundantly clear, however, is the quality of non-conference scheduling that teams have adopted in recent years, creating a perfect entry for college basketball fans who desperately need the sport back in their lives.

The Big East

I just love this basketball-only conference. Typically an afterthought to the Big Ten and ACC, the Big East burst onto the scene in 2022-23, sending five teams to the Big Dance and boasting the eventual National Champions in UConn. Shaka Smart’s Marquette, Sean Miller’s Xavier and then-Ed Cooley’s Providence all exceeded expectations in the regular season and made a name for themselves on the national stage. Don’t expect the hype train to die down either, especially with a coaching carousel sending George Mason’s Kim English to Providence and Cooley to a struggling Georgetown program.

Coaching legend Rick Pitino will now hope to restore St. John’s basketball glory even though his team fell to D-II Pace University in a buy game – yikes. Two legitimate contenders for first-team All-American honors – Marquette point guard Tyler Kolek and UConn center Donovan Clingan – returned to their respective schools and will take on larger roles (especially Clingan). After struggling last season with injury issues, look for Villanova to take a massive step in year three of Kyle Neptune’s tenure; the ex-Villanova assistant brought in four major transfers to complement All-American candidate Justin Moore and center Eric Dixon.

I don’t see much potential for Butler, DePaul and Seton Hall, sadly, but the rest of the conference looks poised to make some serious noise. In terms of superlatives, UConn will remain the top dog, Marquette will take a step back from their dream season, and Providence might just be the most polarizing (and exciting) team to monitor within the conference.

Get excited.
Top 25 CBB Preseason Rankings

April 23rd, 2023

By: P5P Staff

TOP 25 P5P PRESEASON RANKINGS:

1. Michigan State

G: Tyson Walker (14.8 ppg)

G: A.J. Hoggard (12.9 ppg)

G: Jaden Akins (9.8 ppg)

F: Malik Hall (8.9 ppg)

C: Xavier Booker

Key Bench Players: C Mady Sissoko, G Jeremy Fears, F Jaxon Kohler, F Coen Carr, F Gehrig Normand

Key Additions: Fr. Jeremy Fears, Fr. Xavier Booker, Fr. Coen Carr, Fr. Gehrig Normand

Key Losses: F Joey Hauser, G Pierre Brooks

MVP: Tyson Walker

MIP: Mady Sissoko

Best Newcomer: Jeremy Fears

Why MSU?

Coaching. A team that reached the Sweet 16 in 2023 has retained the bulk of its production from a solid campaign and has amassed the fourth-best recruiting class in the nation. This team will be deeper than that of last season, as centers Mady Sissoko and Xavier Booker provide towering presences in the paint while freshman guard Jeremy Fears will learn behind arguably the nation’s best backcourt in Hoggard and Walker. With Izzo at the helm, it’s hard to bet against Sparty.

2. Kansas

G: Dajuan Harris Jr. (8.9 ppg)

G: Nick Timberlake (17.7 ppg)

G/F: Kevin McCullar Jr. (10.7 ppg)

F: K.J. Adams (10.6 ppg)

C: Hunter Dickinson (18.5 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Elmarko Jackson, G Arterio Morris, F Parker Braun, G Jamari McDowell

Key Additions: Hunter Dickinson (Michigan), Nick Timberlake (Towson), Arterio Morris (Texas), Parker Braun (Santa Clara), Fr. Elmarko Jackson, Fr. Jamari McDowell

Key Losses: Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick, Joseph Yesufu, Bobby Pettiford, Ernest Udeh, MJ Rice, Zuby Ejiofor, F Zach Clemence

MVP: Hunter Dickinson

MIP: K.J. Adams

Best Newcomer: Nick Timberlake

Why Kansas?

Hunter Dickinson, and a three-point shooter. Their ranking just moved up immensely after the addition of Towson shooting guard Nick Timberlake and Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson. The 6’4 guard went 41.6% from behind the arc – filling the void of prolific freshman Gradey Dick – and Dickinson’s success in Big Ten ball marked him as the most highly-touted transfer in the portal. Next year’s roster will allow one of the best pure point guards in the nation – Harris – to find Timberlake from three, giving this team another dimension beyond a stacked frontcourt that could see Adams Jr. burst onto the scene alongside the proven big man from Maryland. Having Self also keeps Kansas in the hunt every year – even if All-American Jalen Wilson is finally gone.

3. Duke

G: Jeremy Roach (13.6 ppg)

G: Tyrese Proctor (9.4 ppg)

G: Caleb Foster

F: Mark Mitchell (9.1 ppg)

F: Kyle Filipowski (15.1 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Jared McCain, G Jaden Schutt, F Sean Stewart, F TJ Power, C Ryan Young, G Jaylen Blakes

Key Additions: Fr. Caleb Foster, Fr. Jared McCain, Fr. Sean Stewart, Fr. TJ Power

Key Losses: F Dariq Whitehead, C Dereck Lively II, G Jacob Grandison

MVP: Tyrese Proctor

MIP: Mark Mitchell

Best Newcomer: TJ Power

Why Duke?

Unusual returners in Durham. Jon Scheyer’s first campaign evolved into a major success, with the Blue Devils taking the ACC Championship title and overcoming a slow start to the season. In an unexpected turn of events, three of Duke’s freshman core has pledged to return to Durham to chase a national championship – all with the help of a newly-minted, second-ranked recruiting class. This team will possess the most depth in the nation thanks to three five-stars (likely McCain, Stewart, and Power) coming off of the bench. This isn’t your typical Duke roster makeup. Experience – with three sophomores and a senior in the lineup – will give them a leg up in March.

4. Purdue

G: Braden Smith (9.7 ppg)

G: Fletcher Loyer (11.0 ppg)

G: Ethan Morton (3.8 ppg)

F: Caleb Furst (5.5 ppg)

C: Zach Edey (22.3 ppg)

Key Bench Players: F Trey Kaufman-Renn, F Mason Gillis, F Myles Colvin, G Lance Jones

Key Additions: Fr. Myles Colvin, Lance Jones (SIU)

Key Losses: G Brandon Newman, G David Jenkins Jr.

MVP: Zach Edey

MIP: Trey Kaufman-Renn

Best Newcomer: Myles Colvin

Why Purdue?

Zach Edey. It’s not a sexy pick by any means, but a team that held the no. 1 ranking for much of the 2023 season deserves a top-5 designation here. They’ll return nearly every contributor besides star defender Brandon Newman and rotational guard David Jenkins Jr., yet everything hinges on the status of center and reigning NPOY Edey. The backcourt of Smith and Loyer – combined with a strong forward core of Gillis, Furst and Kaufman-Renn – will play off of Edey’s dominant 7’4 presence. Everything is setting up for a revenge tour in ’23-’24, yet can Painter’s group exorcise their demons?

5. Marquette

G: Tyler Kolek (12.9 ppg)

G: Stevie Mitchell (7.1 ppg)

G: Kam Jones (15.1 ppg)

F: David Joplin (9.2 ppg)

F: Oso Ighodaro (11.4 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Chase Ross, G Sean Jones, F Ben Gold, G Tre Norman, F Al Amadou

Key Additions: Fr. Tre Norman, Fr. Al Amadou, Fr. Zaide Lowery

Key Losses: Olivier Maxence-Prosper

MVP: Tyler Kolek

MIP: David Joplin

Best Newcomer: Tre Norman

Why Marquette?

Returners. This team loses only one starter after gaining a two seed in the Big Dance and after having won the Big East regular-season title and tournament championship. Honestly, they could be much higher. The Big East POY – guard Tyler Kolek – will once again hold the keys to this efficient offense and swarming defense and will look to make up for his sluggish play during March Madness. I only hold off on the Golden Eagles because of their unprecedented rise this season, giving me some reason to believe that they’ll disappoint with expectations higher than normal. Nonetheless, a defending Big East champion ranked behind two conference opponents in the preseason poll is absurd; but, it’s just the reality of what will be the toughest conference in America.

6. Creighton

G: Steven Ashworth (16.2 ppg)

G: Trey Alexander (13.6 ppg)

G/F: Baylor Scheierman (12.8 ppg)

F: Isaac Traudt

C: Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.9 ppg)

Key Bench Players: C Fredrick King, G Francisco Farabello, F Johnathan Lawson, G Mason Miller, G Jasen Green, G Josiah Dotzler

Key Additions: Isaac Traudt (Virginia), Steven Ashworth (Utah St.), Johnathan Lawson (Memphis), Fr. Josiah Dotzler

Key Losses: G Ryan Nembhard, F Arthur Kaluma

MVP: Ryan Kalkbrenner

MIP: Fredrick King

Best Newcomer: Steven Ashworth

Why Creighton?

Quietly filling their vacancies. McDermott’s crew was one blunder away from making the Final Four. Now, they’ll return most of the lineup (if Alexander presumably stays) and have added star transfer Steven Ashworth – a 43% three-point shooter who averaged 16.2 ppg in the Mountain West. Ashworth will be tasked with filling the shoes of the departed floor general Ryan Nembhard, a tough task yet one which will be alleviated by an improved surrounding core in Omaha. The transfer of Virginia’s Isaac Traudt will give the Bluejays depth in the frontcourt behind Kalkbrenner – a contender for National Player of the Year honors in 2023-24.

7. Houston

G: Jamal Shead (10.5 ppg)

G: LJ Cryer (15.0 ppg)

G: Damian Dunn (15.3 ppg)

G: Terrance Arceneaux (3.7 ppg)

F: J’Wan Roberts (10.0 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Emanuel Sharp, F Ja’Vier Francis, G Ramon Walker Jr., C Joseph Tugler, C Jacob McFarland

Key Additions: LJ Cryer (Baylor), Damian Dunn (Temple), Fr. Joseph Tugler, Fr. Jacob McFarland, Fr. Kordelius Jefferson, Fr. Cedric Lath

Key Losses: Marcus Sasser, Jarace Walker, Tramon Mark, Reggie Chaney

MVP: LJ Cryer

MIP: Terrance Arceneaux

Best Newcomer: LJ Cryer

Why Houston?

A Marcus Sasser replacement. The ‘Cougs’ prospects were looking bleak until Kelvin Sampson landed both Dunn and Cryer out of the portal, the latter of whom starred in a three-headed monster of a backcourt at Baylor. With Sasser’s illustrious career over in Houston, they’ll need Cryer’s services to regain a no. 1 seed in March. Some problems may arise in a shallow frontcourt – with only Roberts as a mainstay – but Houston’s teams have always been pretty guard heavy. Teams will absolutely hate going up against Shead, Cryer and Dunn for what they can do on both sides of the floor. A player to watch as well is freshman Terrance Arceneaux, who has potential to excel in his second year under Sampson’s tutelage.

8. UConn

G: Tristen Newton (10.1 ppg)

G: Stephon Castle

G: Cam Spencer (13.2 ppg)

F: Alex Karaban (9.3 ppg)

C: Donovan Clingan (6.9 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Solomon Ball, G Hassan Diarra, F Jaylin Stewart, F Jayden Ross, F Samson Johnson

Key Additions: Cam Spencer (Rutgers), Fr. Solomon Ball, Fr. Jaylin Stewart, Fr. Stephon Castle, Fr. Jayden Ross

Key Losses: G Jordan Hawkins, F Andre Jackson Jr., C Adama Sanogo, G Joey Calcaterra, G Naheim Alleyne

MVP: Donovan Clingan

MIP: Alex Karaban

Best Newcomer: Stephon Castle

Why UConn?

Precedent. Following a National Championship title, it would be unwise to count on a Husky hangover in 2023-24. Yes, Hurley’s unit will lose two of the nation’s finest in guard Jordan Hawkins and center Adama Sanogo – a duo which combined for 33.4 ppg – to the NBA Draft, yet the Huskies are bringing in two five-stars and have landed a highly-touted transfer in the portal. Point forward Andre Jackson Jr. ended up staying in the draft – an unsurprising move considering his draft projections – yet Hurley has shored up his starting lineup by snagging sharpshooter Cam Spencer (43.4% 3pt.) from Rutgers. They’ll be just fine now.

9. Arkansas

G: Davonte Davis (10.9 ppg)

G: Tramon Mark (10.1 ppg)

G: Khalif Battle (17.9 ppg)

F: Trevon Brazile (11.8 ppg)

C: Baye Fall

Key Bench Players: G El Ellis, G/F Jeremiah Davenport, G Keyon Menifield, G Layden Blocker, F Makhi Mitchell, F Chandler Lawson, F Jalen Graham, G Joseph Pinion

Key Additions: Tramon Mark (Houston), El Ellis (Louisville), Jeremiah Davenport (Cincinnati), Keyon Menifield (Washington), Khalif Battle (Temple), Chandler Lawson (Memphis), Fr. Baye Fall, Fr. Layden Blocker

Key Losses: G Ricky Council IV, G Anthony Black, G Nick Smith Jr., F Jordan Walsh, F Makhel Mitchell

MVP: Trevon Brazile

MIP: Davonte Davis

Best Newcomer: Baye Fall

Why Arkansas?

The transfer portal and the return of Trevon Brazile. The top-ranked transfer class (as of now) is chock-full of guards, guards and more guards, with Musselman attempting to replace the production of five-stars Black and Smith as well as former transfer Ricky Council IV. Now, it remains to be seen if Temple’s Khalif Battle and Cincinnati’s Jeremiah Davenport can seamlessly adjust to SEC ball, yet we’ve seen Mark and Ellis excel at a major level. Brazile’s return, moreover, is massive for the ‘Hogs. The 6’10 sophomore averaged 11.8 ppg and 6.0 rpg in 2022 before suffering a torn ACL after only nine games, and his loss would result in some losing skids for a team that looked to settle down in the top-ten for much of the year. The loss of Jordan Walsh hurts, yes, but the Muss Bus should have more than enough depth to fill his vacancy.

10. Florida Atlantic

G: Johnell Davis (13.8 ppg)

G: Alijah Martin (13.4 ppg)

G: Bryan Greenlee (7.3 ppg)

G: Nicolas Boyd (8.9 ppg)

C: Vladislav Goldin (10.2 ppg)

Key Bench Players: F Giancarlo Rosado, G Brandon Weatherspoon, G Jalen Gaffney, G Devin Vanterpool

Key Additions: Fr. Devin Vanterpool

Key Losses: Michael Forrest

MVP: Johnell Davis

MIP: Giancarlo Rosado

Best Newcomer: Devin Vanterpool

Why Florida Atlantic?

Proven winners. This team won the most games out of any other D1 team and made the Final Four as a criminally underrated nine-seed. Now, I would usually slot a mid-major further down the rankings after making a Cinderella run in the tournament, but their regular-season pedigree gives me reason to believe they’re here to stay. Coach Dusty May is locked into Boca Raton for the next ten years (he’ll definitely leave before, though) and searching for another C-USA title, but the bar has been raised for a team that nearly tasted a National Championship appearance. Everyone in the starting lineup has returned, barring a rogue decision from Martin or Davis.

11. Arizona

G: Kylan Boswell (4.6 ppg)

G: Caleb Love (16.7 ppg)

G: Pelle Larsson (9.9 ppg)

F: Keshad Johnson (7.7 ppg)

C: Oumar Ballo (14.2 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Jaden Bradley, F Henri Veesaar, F Dylan Anderson, F KJ Lewis

Key Additions: Jaden Bradley (Alabama), Caleb Love (UNC), Keshad Johnson (San Diego St.), Fr. KJ Lewis, Fr. Motiejus Krivas

Key Losses: Azuolas Tubelis, Courtney Ramey, Kerr Kriisa, Cedric Henderson Jr., Adama Bal

MVP: Kylan Boswell

MIP: Kylan Boswell

Best Newcomer: Keshad Johnson

Why Arizona?

The portal and Kylan Boswell’s emergence. This roster was looking bleak after Tubelis announced his departure from Tucson, yet Coach Tommy Lloyd has the chance to regain last season’s form with the additions of Bradley, Love, and Johnson. The former has plenty of room to blossom as a true sophomore who had some ups and downs for the No. 1 overall seed in March. Johnson, however, was a proven starter for a team with a National Championship appearance and will shore up the defensive side of the ball with returning center Oumar Ballo. I think that this team could also benefit from the improved play of sophomore Kylan Boswell, who showed flashes of brilliance despite sitting behind Ramey, Henderson and Kriisa in the backcourt pecking order.

12. Villanova

G: Mark Armstrong (5.3 ppg)

G: Justin Moore (13.5 ppg)

G: TJ Bamba (15.8 ppg)

F: Tyler Burton (19.0 ppg)

C: Eric Dixon (15.4 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G/F Hakim Hart, F Lance Ware, G Jordan Longino, G Brendan Hausen, G Chris Arcidiacono, F Trey Patterson, F Jordann Dumont

Key Additions: TJ Bamba (Washington St.), Tyler Burton (Richmond), Hakim Hart (Maryland), Lance Ware (Kentucky), Fr. Jordann Dumont

Key Losses: Cam Whitmore, Brandon Slater, Caleb Daniels

MVP: Justin Moore

MIP: Mark Armstrong

Best Newcomer: Tyler Burton

Why Villanova?

Moore’s return. You can attribute their top-25 ranking to the portal additions of Bamba and Hart – who will immediately slot in for Cam Whitmore and Brandon Slater – yet the once-injured shooting guard from Maryland is the key to Villanova success. In the games following Moore’s return to the lineup last season (let’s ignore his first three games back), the Wildcats went 7-3 and knocked off two top-20 opponents: no. 16 Xavier and no. 19 Creighton. Villanova desperately missed his services (and Whitmore’s) in that brutal stretch in the beginning of the season. Now, I believe that guard Mark Armstrong is also poised to take a huge leap next season after learning behind Moore and Caleb Daniels. Neptune couldn’t have had a better offseason, as Hart, Bamba, Ware and Burton give this team much-needed depth that was lacking last year.

13. Tennessee

G: Zakai Zeigler (10.7 ppg)

G: Santiago Vescovi (12.5 ppg)

G: Josiah Jordan-James (10.0 ppg)

F: Tobe Awaka (3.2 ppg)

F: Jonas Aidoo (5.1 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Dalton Knecht, G Jahmai Mashack, C JP Estrella, G Jordan Gainey, G Cameron Carr

Key Additions: Jordan Gainey (SC Upstate), Dalton Knecht (Northern Colorado), Fr. JP Estrella, Fr. Cameron Carr, Fr. Cade Phillips

Key Losses: Olivier Nkamhoua, Julian Phillips, Uros Plavsic, Tyreke Key, BJ Edwards

MVP: Santiago Vescovi

MIP: Tobe Awaka

Best Newcomer: Dalton Knecht

Why Tennessee?

The backcourt tandem of Zeigler and Vescovi. The latter announced his return to Knoxville amidst NBA Draft rumors, while the former will enter his junior campaign rehabbing an ACL tear which occurred in late February. The ‘Vols will continue to play their smothering style of defense – having held opponents to a third-best 57.9 points per game – and they will benefit offensively from the additions of Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht and guard Jordan Gainey. Just remember that Tennessee reached as high as no. 2 in the AP Poll last season. Losing Harvard pledge Chris Ledlum comes as a bit of a surprise, but it won’t ruin the Vols’ chances of an SEC Championship.

14. Miami

G: Nijel Pack (13.6 ppg)

G: Bensley Joseph (5.3 ppg)

G: Wooga Poplar (8.4 ppg)

G: Matthew Cleveland (13.8 ppg)

F: Norchad Omier (13.1 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Christian Watson, F AJ Casey, G Jakai Robinson, C Michael Nwoko, G Kyshawn George

Key Additions: Matthew Cleveland (Florida St.), Fr. Michael Nwoko, Fr. Kyshawn George

Key Losses: Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, Harlond Beverly, Anthony Walker

MVP: Nijel Pack

MIP: Bensley Joseph

Best Newcomer: Matthew Cleveland

Why Miami?

Guards. Guards. Guards. The ‘Canes will dearly miss ACC POY Isaiah Wong and swiss-army knife Jordan Miller, but the three-guard rollout of Pack, Joseph and Poplar will do their best to replicate this backcourt’s production last season. What Miami needs as well is the return of forward/center Norchad Omier – whose 6’7 frame doesn’t hold him back from defending the paint. Depth will be an issue for the Canes, whose unlimited guard strategy of last season will depend on the growth of freshman Kyshawn George and guards Watson and Robinson. I think Miami is slightly overvalued as of now, yet it’s hard to snub a team that made a Final Four appearance and received a share of the ACC regular-season title.

15. Gonzaga

G: Ryan Nembhard (12.1 ppg)

G: Nolan Hickman (7.7 ppg)

G: Steele Venters (15.3 ppg)

F: Anton Watson (11.1 ppg)

F: Graham Ike (19.5 ppg)

Key Bench Players: F Ben Gregg, G Dusty Stromer, F Marcus Adams Jr., F Colby Brooks, F Abe Eagle, F Kaden Perry

Key Additions: Ryan Nembhard (Creighton), Graham Ike (Wyoming), Steele Venters (Eastern Washington), Fr. Dusty Stromer, Fr. Marcus Adams Jr.

Key Losses: Drew Timme, Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton, Malachi Smith, Hunter Sallis, Dominick Harris

MVP: Ryan Nembhard

MIP: Ben Gregg

Best Newcomer: Ryan Nembhard

Why Gonzaga?

The transfer portal. Things were looking mighty shaky after the departures of Timme, Strawther, Bolton, Sallis and Smith, yet Mark Few has righted the ship all in a day. The addition of Creighton point guard Ryan Nembhard – whose brother, Andrew, played a huge role for that dynamic ‘Zags team in 2020-21 – and Wyoming big man Graham Ike has catapulted Gonzaga into the top-25. Throw in a sleeper forward in Anton Watson and potential sixth man Ben Gregg, and you have a frontcourt that could make up for the massive loss of Timme. Hickman will also look to take a huge leap in 2023-24 – especially while playing alongside a wily point general.

16. Texas

G: Max Abmas (21.9 ppg)

G: Tyrese Hunter (10.3 ppg)

F: Brock Cunningham (4.6 ppg)

F: Dillon Mitchell (4.3 ppg)

C: Dylan Disu (8.8 ppg)

Key Bench Players: C Kadin Shedrick, G Chris Johnson, G Chendall Weaver, F Ze’Rik Onyema, G Ithiel Horton, F Alex Anamekwe

Key Additions: Max Abmas (Oral Roberts), Kadin Shedrick (Virginia), Chris Johnson (Kansas), Chendall Weaver (UT-Arlington), Ze’Rik Onyema (UTEP), Ithiel Horton (UCF)

Key Losses: Marcus Carr, Sir’Jabari Rice, Timmy Allen, Christian Bishop, Arterio Morris

MVP: Dylan Disu

MIP: Dillon Mitchell

Best Newcomer: Max Abmas

Why Texas?

Starting five. The backcourt depth could be an issue behind Abmas and Hunter, yet the Longhorns will roll out a five-man unit capable of hanging with the nation’s best. I’m most interested in the development of sophomore Dillon Mitchell, as Coach Rodney Terry will possess a scary amount of versatility in the frontcourt. Disu will return to Austin after surging late in the 2023 season, and he should shine alongside Mitchell and some combination of Shedrick and Brock Cunningham. Add arguably the nation’s best point guard transfer in mid-major legend Abmas and you have a roster poised to make a run for the Big 12 title.

17. Alabama

G: Mark Sears (12.5 ppg)

G: Aaron Estrada (20.2 ppg)

G: Rylan Griffen (5.9 ppg)

F: Nick Pringle (3.5 ppg)

F: Grant Nelson (17.9 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Latrell Wrightsell Jr., F Jarin Stevenson, F Mohamed Wague, F Kris Parker, G Davin Cosby Jr., F Mouhamed Dioubate, F Sam Walters

Key Additions: Grant Nelson (NDSU), Aaron Estrada (Hofstra), Mohamed Wague (West Virginia), Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (Cal State Fullerton), Fr. Jarin Stevenson, Fr. Sam Walters, Fr. Kris Parker, Fr. Mouhamed Dioubate

Key Losses: F Brandon Miller, G Jahvon Quinerly, F Noah Clowney, F Noah Gurley, G Nimari Burnett, G Jaden Bradley, C Charles Bediako

MVP: Grant Nelson

MIP: Rylan Griffen

Best Newcomer: Grant Nelson

Why Alabama?

Transfers, and Mark Sears. Senior Sears and transfers Grant Nelson (NDSU) and Aaron Estrada (Hofstra) have to take on larger roles for this team to be successful. The loss of freshman Brandon Miller to the draft will undoubtedly hurt the Tide, yet their starting lineup still has the potential to make some noise in the SEC. Bediako made an unexpected decision to stay in the NBA draft, yet the backcourt features two guards who should keep Tide fans from reminiscing too much about Quinerly (and I guess, Bradley). The bench is of some concern as compared to last year’s depth, but I would expect either transfer guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. or freshman Jarin Stevenson to blossom in Tuscaloosa as the Tide’s sixth-man. A step back is expected for Alabama, but I love what Nelson brings to the table. A 6’11 stretch big – arguably a top-5 player in the portal – will continue the Tide’s recent success.

18. USC

G: Isaiah Collier

G: Boogie Ellis (17.7 ppg)

G: Kobe Johnson (9.2 ppg)

F: Joshua Morgan (7.0 ppg)

C: Vince Iwuchukwu (5.4 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Bronny James*, F DJ Rodman, G Oziyah Sellers, C Arrinten Page, F Kijani Wright, F Harrison Hornery

Key Additions: DJ Rodman (Washington St.), Fr. Isaiah Collier, Fr. Bronny James, C Arrinten Page

Key Losses: Drew Peterson, Tre White, Reese Dixon-Waters, Malik Thomas

MVP: Boogie Ellis

MIP: Oziyah Sellers

Best Newcomer: Isaiah Collier

Why USC?

Collier and Ellis (and Bronny). After finishing third in the Pac-12 and reaching the Big Dance, coach Andy Enfield has navigated the offseason brilliantly so far, even despite the loss of guard Reese Dixon-Waters. Leading scorer Boogie Ellis pledged his return to Southern California amidst NBA rumors, while the nation’s top recruit – Isaiah Collier – will join Ellis in the Pac-12’s most talented backcourt. This team will go as far as Collier and Ellis take them, and a frontcourt that has largely returned will give the Trojans a fair shot at taking the Pac-12 title. Also, a Bronny James commitment to Enfield isn’t too shabby.

19. Texas A&M

G: Wade Taylor IV (16.3 ppg)

G: Tyrece Radford (13.3 ppg)

G: Jace Carter (16.6 ppg)

F: Henry Coleman (9.0 ppg)

F: Julius Marble (9.1 ppg)

Key Bench Players: F Andersson Garcia, G Manny Obaseki, G Hayden Hefner, C Wildens Leveque, G Eli Lawrence, F Solomon Washington, G Bryce Lindsay

Key Additions: Jace Carter (Illinois-Chicago), Wildens Leveque (UMass), Eli Lawrence (Middle Tennessee), Fr. Bryce Lindsay

Key Losses: Dexter Dennis

MVP: Wade Taylor IV

MIP: Andersson Garcia

Best Newcomer: Jace Carter

Why A&M?

Returners. The second-place finishers in the SEC – having ended the regular season with an astounding 15-3 conference record – will bring back nearly all of their pieces from an otherwise stellar campaign. The 17-point loss to Penn State put a damper on a surprising year from the Aggies, yet the return of four starters and the additions of UIC shooting guard Jace Carter and Middle Tennessee’s Eli Lawrence give me reason to believe that they can remain competitive in the SEC. The Aggies’ defense will keep its swarming style alive, and coach Buzz Williams will once again rely on the backcourt duo of Taylor and Radford for scoring production.

20. Baylor

G: Langston Love (6.3 ppg)

G: RayJ Dennis (19.5 ppg)

G: Ja’Kobe Walter

F: Jalen Bridges (10.3 ppg)

F: Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua (5.1 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Jayden Nunn, F Caleb Lohner, F Josh Ojianwuna, G Miro Little

Key Additions: Jayden Nunn (VCU), Fr. Ja’Kobe Walter, Fr. Miro Little

Key Losses: Adam Flagler, Keyonte George, LJ Cryer, Flo Thamba, Dale Bonner

MVP: Langston Love

MIP: Langston Love

Best Newcomer: RayJ Dennis

Why Baylor?

Langston Love and Jalen Bridges. It would be naive to overlook the off-season losses – including all three starting guards who accounted for 45.9 ppg – yet Baylor develops like none other. We already saw Bridges continue to improve in 2022-23 – posting 10.3 ppg and notching a 28-point game against Iowa State. The keys to the offense, however, belong to Love, who will take the reins from the three-headed monster of Flagler, George and Cryer. The freshman from Texas only averaged 6.3 ppg in his first season, but he will be helped by Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis and incoming freshman star Ja’Kobe Walter. I would expect the Bears to replicate as best they can the triumvirate at the guard position.

21. Memphis

G: Jahvon Quinerly (8.7 ppg)

G: Caleb Mills (13.0 ppg)

G/F: David Jones (13.2 ppg)

F: DeAndre Williams (17.7 ppg)

F: Jordan Brown (19.3 ppg)

Key Bench Players: F Jonathan Pierre, G Jaykwon Walton, G Mikey Williams, G Elijah McCadden, F Nick Jourdain, F JJ Taylor, F Teafale Lenard, G Jayhlon Young

Key Additions: Jahvon Quinerly (Alabama), David Jones (St. John’s), Jordan Brown (Louisiana), Jaykwon Walton (Wichita St.), Caleb Mills (Florida St.), Nick Jourdain (Temple), Teafale Lenard (Middle Tennessee), Jayhlon Young (UCF), Fr. Mikey Williams, Fr. Carl Cherenfant, Fr. JJ Taylor, Fr. Ashton Hardaway, Fr. Ryan Forrest

Key Losses: Kendric Davis, Malcolm Dandridge, Keonte Kennedy, Alex Lomax, Chandler Lawson

MVP: DeAndre Williams

MIP: Jahvon Quinerly

Best Newcomer: Jordan Brown

Why Memphis?

The transfer portal. Well, you certainly can’t question Penny Hardaway’s ability to recruit. The former NBA All-Star has been hot as of late, landing two highly-touted transfers in Louisiana’s Jordan Brown and Alabama’s Jahvon Quinerly. Also, Hardaway has recently turned his prized adds into successful campaigns; last year, the Tigers defeated a future No. 1 seed – Houston – to capture the American Athletic Conference title. This frontcourt is arguably the most talented in the land, yet plenty hinges on the status of 26-year old senior DeAndre Williams (who will need an approved waiver to play in ’23-’24). Don’t forget about internet sensation and top-50 recruit Mikey Williams, either, a freshman who might grace the starting five when the season kicks off.

22. Saint Mary’s

G: Aidan Mahaney (13.9 ppg)

G: Augustas Marciulionis (5.9 ppg)

G: Alex Ducas (12.5 ppg)

F: Josh Jefferson (2.2 ppg)

C: Mitchell Saxen (11.6 ppg)

Key Bench Players: C Harry Wessels, G Luke Barrett, G Chris Howell, G Jordan Ross, C Andrew McKeever, F Mason Forbes

Key Additions: Fr. Jordan Ross, Fr. Andrew McKeever

Key Losses: Logan Johnson, Kyle Bowen, Matthew Van Komen

MVP: Aidan Mahaney

MIP: Josh Jefferson

Best Newcomer: Jordan Ross

Why Saint Mary’s?

Consistency. The Gaels play a Virginia-esque style of basketball: slow, dictated tempo with a heightened emphasis on defensive possessions. Even with a lack of big names, Saint Mary’s has found a way to challenge Gonzaga year-in and year-out for WCC supremacy – having defeated the ‘Zags once last season and gained a share of the regular season title. Now, they’ll return three of five starters in 2023-24, with freshman Aidan Mahaney expected to have the backcourt all to himself after sharing it with veteran guard Logan Johnson. Bennett’s unit also features two seven-footers – Wessels and McKeever – who will provide big man depth behind the 6’11 Saxen. It’s time to consider Saint Mary’s a national juggernaut.

23. San Diego State

G: Lamont Butler (8.8 ppg)

G: Micah Parrish (7.4 ppg)

G: Darrion Trammell (9.8 ppg)

G: Reese Dixon-Waters (9.8 ppg)

F: Jaedon LeDee (7.9 ppg)

Key Bench Players: F Elijah Saunders, F Demarshay Johnson, G BJ Davis, C Miles Heide, F Jay Pal

Key Additions: Reese Dixon-Waters (USC), Jay Pal (Campbell), Fr. BJ Davis, Fr. Miles Heide

Key Losses: Matt Bradley, Keshad Johnson, Nathan Mensah, Aguek Arop, Adam Seiko

MVP: Darrion Trammell

MIP: Elijah Saunders

Best Newcomer: Reese Dixon-Waters

Why San Diego State?

Defense, and they just made it to the national championship. The Aztecs will likely struggle in part from the losses of frontcourt mainstays Mensah and Johnson, yet a small-ball lineup featuring three returning guards alongside a talented Pac-12 transfer in Dixon-Waters can compensate. Even with New Mexico’s rise this offseason, I expect San Diego State to begin the season as the favorites to take the Mountain West. As long as Brian Dutcher maintains the Aztecs’ style of play – slow, grinding and defensively-oriented – they will be able to wear out teams along the way. It would be a crime not to have them in the top-25 after a historic season.

24. UCLA

G: Dylan Andrews (3.3 ppg)

G: Ilane Fibleuil

G: Lazar Stefanovic (10.3 ppg)

F: Brandon Williams

C: Adem Bona (7.7 ppg)

MVP: Dylan Andrews

MIP: Dylan Andrews

Best Newcomer: Ilane Fibleuil

Key Bench Players: G Will McClendon, C Kenneth Nwuba, G Sebastian Mack, G Jan Vide, F Devin Williams

Key Additions: Lazar Stefanovic (Utah), Fr. Ilane Fibleuil, Fr. Sebastian Mack, Fr. Brandon Williams, Fr. Devin Williams, Fr. Jan Vide

Key Losses: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyger Campbell, Jaylen Clark, Amari Bailey, David Singleton, Abramo Canka, Mac Etienne

Why UCLA?

Mick Cronin. Perhaps no other team in America is losing more than UCLA. The losses include a second-team All American, a PAC-12 DPOY recipient, a four-year starter at point guard and a second-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. A horrendous exodus on paper. Nonetheless, a new crop of Bruin talent will hopefully take the place of elders Jaquez and Campbell, while returners Andrews and Bona have to up their production in a loaded PAC-12 (in the upper tier, at least). It would be unwise to doubt Cronin, who has steered UCLA to at least the Sweet 16 in the past three seasons.

25. Colorado

G: KJ Simpson (15.9 ppg)

G: J’Vonne Hadley (8.0 ppg)

F: Cody Williams

F: Tristan da Silva (15.9 ppg)

C: Eddie Lampkin (6.3 ppg)

Key Bench Players: G Julian Hammond III, G Luke O’Brien, C Assane Diop, G Javon Ruffin, F Courtney Anderson

Key Additions: Eddie Lampkin (TCU), Fr. Cody Williams, Fr. Assane Diop, Fr. Courtney Anderson, Fr. Bangot Dak

Key Losses: G Nique Clifford, C Lawson Lovering, G Ethan Wright, G Jalen Gabbidon

MVP: Tristan da Silva

MIP: Julian Hammond III

Best Newcomer: Cody Williams

Why Colorado?

No significant losses, and a rare five-star in Boulder. Even while finishing eighth in the Pac-12, the Buffaloes hung with UCLA twice, throttled Texas A&M and beat a strong Tennessee team by 12 on a neutral site. Now, Colorado returns star forward Tristan da Silva as well as point guard KJ Simpson, while they will welcome five-star freshman forward Cody Williams and big man Eddie Lampkin from TCU. This is arguably the best shot for Colorado to win the Pac-12 in recent memory. Consider Arizona and UCLA – who lost the bulk of their production to graduation or the draft – and Colorado and USC are now in position to be in position.

Next 5:

UNC

Kentucky

Virginia

TCU

St. John’s
Dan Hurley: The unrelenting pursuit of perfection

April 5th, 2023

By: Spencer McCraw

For his entire life, Dan Hurley has been chasing something, always overshadowed and overlooked. As the son of one of the greatest high school basketball coaches ever and the brother to a two-time national champion in Bobby, the littlest Hurley has always been hungry to create his own legacy.

Now in his thirteenth season as a head coach, he has done just that. Hurley has done something that neither his father nor his brother have accomplished: coaching their team to a national title.

Not only has he reached the mountaintop in only his fifth season as the head coach of UConn, but he has also restored national prominence to one of the most proud and celebrated college basketball programs of the last two decades.

After Jim Calhoun retired following the 2012 season, there was a sharp decline in the level of output by the Huskies (Yes, Kevin Ollie did win a title in 2014, but those were mainly Calhoun’s players). Because of this, Dan Hurley was called upon in 2018 to revitalize this historic program, and slowly he enacted change.

Hurley’s energy and unrelenting pursuit of perfection attracted players like James Bouknight and Tyrese Martin, which has helped to completely change the culture. Hurley now has a national title under his belt and the no. 4 overall recruiting class coming this summer, so it is safe to say the Huskies are back.

When Dan Hurley came to Storrs, CT, he had a vision. Now, that vision has come to fruition. Hurley envisioned a team that defended, pushed the tempo, and most importantly, hustled. For most of this year – other than a stretch in January – his Huskies did just that.

UConn dominated their non conference schedule, starting the season 11-0. This was when the rest of the country started to take notice of the Huskies, as they shot up from unranked to the no. 2 overall seed in the AP Poll.

The national attention and high seeding made the Huskies veer away from their identity at the start of Big East play, losing six of eight games at one point. Jim Calhoun and Dan Hurley both agree that this was the best thing that could have happened to the players. This stretch of losses allowed the Huskies to realize who they were, but more importantly who they weren’t. Without this stretch, says Calhoun, they would have not made it deep into March.

The Huskies rolled through the rest of the year, only losing two games and ultimately lifting the trophy in Houston. The common theme during UConn’s run in March was utter domination. Not a single team had an answer for what Hurley tossed at them, winning every game by double digits. This run through the tournament was reminiscent of 2021 Baylor and 2018 Villanova – two of the most dominant teams in the last decade.

No matter how the rest of Dan’s career goes, he has created his own legacy. Bobby’s little brother has taken hold of the Hurley name and has written his own chapter to ensure that they will be cemented as one of the greatest basketball families of all time. From Bob – the high school coach – to Bobby – the college point guard – and now to Dan – the college coach – all three have climbed to the top in their own way.

The culture shift that Hurley brought about in Storrs will ensure that the Huskies will stay near the top.
National Championship Preview: Who takes the cake in an unprecedented year

April 3rd, 2023

By: George Ahearn

National Championship day is here, and whilst this day would feel more exciting if they weren’t tipping off past 9:00 PM on a Monday, the buzz is palpable in the college basketball world. Tonight, we have No. 4 seed UConn matching up against No. 5 seed San Diego State.

UConn’s run to the championship game entails five games of utter dominance. The Huskies have won their NCAA Tournament games by an absurd average of 20.6 points. This mark sits at third all-time since the tournament expanded to a field of 64. Dan Hurley’s squad has looked like the best team in the nation in every one of their tournament games, so, despite holding a four seed, a UConn appearance in the title game is of little surprise to the fans who have followed the Huskies this season and throughout the tournament.

The Huskies are littered with NBA talent. Hurley spoke to this sentiment in a presser leading up to tonight’s game, and he mentioned how he felt his job is relatively easy due to three NBA talents on the Huskies roster. The presumed three players? Shooting guard Jordan Hawkins, “point forward” Andre Jackson Jr., and impactful freshman Donovan Clingan. There is also potential for the Huskies’ big man Adama Sanogo (20.2 ppg in the Big Dance) to hear his name called in the draft as well.

The Huskies have an immense talent level, and their dominance in this tournament has led people to chalking up tonight’s contest as an easy path to UConn’s third national championship since 2011. However, the idea that this San Diego State team will roll over on the biggest stage is unreasonable.

The Aztecs are being overlooked in this matchup for a plethora of reasons. To start, nobody is expecting a “mid-major” to beat what should be considered a unanimous Blue Blood in the national championship.

Secondly, I feel people view the Aztecs’ path to the title game as soft due to their last two games and their slim margin of victory. They defeated No. 6 seed Creighton in the Elite Eight – thanks in large part to a favorable foul call that sent Darion Trammell to the line for two shots with under one second to play. Then, they faced a similar Cinderella story in FAU in their Final Four matchup, which they won on a buzzer-beating jumper from Lamont Butler.

While a six and nine seed are atypical paths to a national title spot, SDSU was able to beat two deserving opponents – just like any other team – to make it here, and the discredit in this department is simply unjust. People also seem to forget that San Diego State dominated the No. 1 overall seed in Alabama in the Sweet 16 to get here – a team that many had slotted to win it all.

All of this has led to an underrated narrative.

When you get to the tournament and every game that you play is win or go home, the value of experience tends to become invaluable. For the Aztecs, this should be music to their ears. The average age of their starting lineup is 23 years old – higher than the average age for five NBA teams’ starting lineups.

With this experience comes resiliency – something that has been a key to victory for the Aztecs this tournament. They had a nail-biter against Creighton where they relied on their resolve to edge out a scorching Bluejays squad.

Then, they further relied on their resiliency in their matchup against FAU. The Aztecs found themselves down double-digits in the second half, yet they refused to hit the panic button. They played the same style of basketball that had gotten them to the Final Four and were able to scrape by FAU.

Brian Dutcher’s team relies on their defense to win games. They held each of their tournament opponents – prior to FAU – to just over 57 points per game, and have ranked as a top-10 defense in KenPom rankings the entire season. If they are able to make this game more defensive-oriented and keep UConn from running away with the game early, we are in for a treat of a title game.

In 2020 – the year in which the NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID – San Diego State owned a 30-2 record and finished sixth in the AP Poll. In the blink of an eye, the Aztecs’ best chance at reaching a Final Four was stripped from them. Two members of the 2019-20 San Diego State squad are leaders in the locker room for this year’s team: center Nathan Mensah and guard Adam Seiko.

Having an opportunity to solidify San Diego State in the history books – with a dominant season already washed away in unfortunate circumstances – means that Mensah and Seiko have clearly dialed in this previously bitter feeling and used it positively in their leadership approach.

The Aztecs will not roll over, yet I am not going to sit here and call for a San Diego State victory. However, I do expect a heated contest compared to the routs given to us by UConn all tournament.

KenPom has the spread at SDSU +5 – two points lower than the +7 Vegas has for SDSU right now. If you were to bet this game, I would roll with Aztecs +7, but hesitantly. If UConn gets on them early, it may get ugly.
Programs with questions to answer in March, alarming trends to correct

March 30th, 2023

By: William Smythe

With the bulk of the 2023 NCAA Tournament in the rearview, it’s time to examine which programs might be on the verge of some serious “self-questioning” after early exits. We can potentially attribute the frequent upsets to one of the most chaotic seasons in history, yet there exist bona-fide programs which haven’t quite gotten over the hump in March.

Recency bias is certainly in play here, and I acknowledge that. Nonetheless, programs such as Arizona and Purdue haven’t converted successful regular seasons into Final Fours and National Championships in the past decade or so. Let’s dive into the programs with alarming track records in the Big Dance.

Purdue

Don’t get me wrong, Purdue shouldn’t be facing blue-blood level scrutiny. They made the Elite Eight in 2019, won the Big Ten Championship this season and held the no. 1 ranking for a healthy party of the year. However, they’ve also advanced to the Elite Eight only once in the past six years – all in which Matt Painter’s crew held a five seed or below.

Prior to the Fairleigh Dickinson loss, the three-seeded Boilermakers ultimately fell in 2022 to fifteenth-seeded St. Peter’s in the Sweet Sixteen; sure, the Peacocks defeated no. 2 Kentucky and no. 7 Murray State beforehand, but you’re telling me a combination of 7’4 Zach Edey and 6’10 Trevion Williams couldn’t find a way to defeat a vastly undersized mid major?

Losses to no. 13 North Texas (2021) and no. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock (2016) only make the Boilermakers’ case worse. The regular season dominance is there, but a pattern of early exits – including a brutal Sweet 16 loss to St. Peter’s – has officially put the pressure on Painter to perform in March.

Arizona

Two tournament wins in the last two seasons isn’t exactly ideal for Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats won the Pac-12 regular season title in 2022 and gained tournament titles in 2022 and 2023 – yet to no avail. Arizona has alternated between Sweet 16 appearances and first round exits beginning in 2016, with the most recent defeat to 15 seed Princeton a perpetuation of the trend. Regular season success, like Purdue, is expected (and achieved) in Tucson.

The 31-3 Wildcats – ranked second in the AP Poll last season – nearly fell to ninth-seeded TCU in the second round and fell by 12 to no. 5 Houston in the Sweet 16. Arguably the best team assembled in Tucson in the 21st century, Lloyd’s crew looked nothing like the part of their regular season self.

A 21-point loss in 2018 to 13 seed Buffalo now gives Arizona two first-round losses to double-digit seeds in the past five years.

Tennessee

Rick Barnes officially has a problem on his hands. The fourth-seeded Vols arguably had their best chance to reach the program’s first Elite Eight since 2010, yet the unexpected Owls from Florida Atlantic took it to Tennessee in Madison Square Garden.

The Vols held a 3 seed last season and lost to eleventh-seeded Michigan in the second round. This wouldn’t be their second loss as a 3 to an 11 – remember the Loyola-Chicago game in 2018?

In 2020, 12 seed Oregon State trounced fifth-seeded Tennessee and proceeded to make the Elite Eight. The only “bright spot” in recent years was the Vols’ Sweet 16 battle against Purdue in 2019, a high-scoring affair that nearly saw them advance to take on top-seeded Virginia in the Elite Eight.

Barnes has the talent and the pedigree in regular season play, yet his teams have encountered early disappointment in the Big Dance.

Virginia

As a Virginia fan, it pains me to put us here. The National Championship in 2019 has salvaged a program that is desperate for a win in March – having lost back-to-back first round games to a 13 seed. The last second heave from JP Pegues is perhaps a reminder of where Virginia is heading in the post-championship hangover era.

In three out of the last four years that they’ve reached the Big Dance, the Cavaliers have fallen in the first round to the likes of Ohio, Furman, and of course, UMBC.

This team needs to taste victory again. The 2022-23 squad gained a share of the ACC regular season title, knocking off Baylor, Michigan, Duke and Illinois along the way; nonetheless, a poor offensive outing and an unbelievable gaffe in the final seconds squandered an opportunity for a run in March.

I don’t believe that this program is doomed, nor do I believe that the national championship year was a fluke. However, another loss to a double-digit seed may prove fatal.

Others up for consideration: Indiana (no Elite Eights since 2002), Alabama (disappointment when highly seeded)
The Cinderella Story: Which Underdog(s) Will Dance to the Elite Eight

March 23rd, 2023

By: George Ahearn

In our eight games that make up the Sweet 16, each one has a team considered the underdog. Whether it’s a 10-point underdog like Princeton against Creighton, or a 1.5 point underdog in Gonzaga against UCLA. Whatever the “line” is, there will be a team seen by most as the favorite to advance.

Before we see these results truly unfold, let’s size up each matchup and discuss the chance of each underdog to pull off the upsets that make March Madness so special.

*Upset ability will be marked on a scale of 1-5

1- not a chance

2- if all goes well

3- wouldn’t be surprised

4- good chance

5- I think they will win

No. 5 SDSU v. No. 1 Alabama (SDSU +7.5)

Beating Alabama is a tall task for any team in the tournament, but especially an Aztecs team that averages 10 less points a game at seven compared to Alabama’s 81. That being said, the chance for San Diego State to pull off the upset lies in their physicality.

In the Aztecs’ second-round matchup against Furman, they held the Paladins to 52 points on 32% shooting en route to a dominant 75-52 win. In four of Alabama’s five losses, they have failed to score 70 points. The only loss in which they went over 70 points was in the terrific, early-season shootout against the ‘Zags in which they fell, 90-100.

The Aztecs don’t have the star power, they don’t have the scoring, and they don’t have anyone of Brandon Miller’s caliber. Yet, they do have the physicality, the upperclassmen (Matt Bradley and Nathan Mensah are seniors), and the will to make this game interesting.

Upset ability: 2

No. 15 Princeton v. No. 6 Creighton (Princeton +10)

If it wasn’t for Fairleigh Dickinson’s incredible upset of Purdue – the second ever 16 over 1 upset – Mitch Henderson’s Tigers would be the Cinderella story of the tournament. Princeton has been playing their best ball of the season, and their utter domination of seven seed Mizzou opened the public’s eyes about the Tigers being a legitimate threat.

However – in order to topple Creighton – their offense will have to be firing like a well-oiled machine, even more so than in their victory against Mizzou. The Bluejays come into this game riding high from behind the arc, so the first step for the Tigers will be slowing down the three-ball – a task easier said than done. On top of this, limiting the immense impact of Ryan Kalkbrenner inside is key for Princeton. The Big East Defensive Player of the Year dictates the energy for the Bluejays; so, for the Tigers to win, limiting Kalkbrenner is critical.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, I see this finally being the matchup where the slipper does not fit…

Upset ability: 1

No. 9 FAU v. No. 4 Tennessee (FAU +5.5)

After Florida Atlantic’s escape of FDU, it feels like everyone has chalked Tennessee into the Elite Eight. However, I believe this matchup to be much more competitive than expected. People forget the condition of Tennessee entering this tournament. They lost two of their last three before the tournament – including an SEC quarterfinal loss to Mizzou – and lost starting point guard Zakai Zeigler for the season with a torn ACL. The domination of Duke clearly demonstrates their ability to win big games without Zeigler, yet the Owls are not to be overlooked.

Vegas (easy way of saying who makes the lines) loves FAU. They were only one-point underdogs to the American champions in Memphis, and then closed as 17-point favorites against FDU – only six less than one-seed Purdue.

Tennessee has vulnerabilities, and if FAU can play good defense and knock down the three-ball, they have a real chance of advancing to their first Elite Eight in program history.

Upset ability: 3

No. 7 Michigan State v. No. 3 Kansas State (K-State +1.5)

In an article that’s focusing on underdogs, this game leaves much interpretation up to the viewer of who is truly the underdog in this matchup. In almost any scenario, a seven seed matching up against a three seed in the Sweet 16 would always be considered the underdog. However, this is not the case.

The Spartans are 1.5 point favorites over fan-favorite – three seed Kansas State. However, for all intents and purposes, we will consider the Spartans the ‘dawgs in this matchup. Tom Izzo is coaching in his 15^th Sweet 16 appearance in only 28 seasons as the leader of Sparty. On the other side, we have a first-time head coach in Jerome Tang – who has led the Wildcats to new heights in his first year at the helm.

The key for the Spartans will be slowing down Markquis Nowell. The “little guy” electrified his team against Kentucky with jaw-dropping play after jaw-dropping play. If the Spartans want to win, it starts with slowing down the Kansas State floor general. Thankfully for Izzo, he has his own star -senior guard Tyson Walker.

Expect a high-octane matchup in The Garden to kick off the Sweet 16.

Upset ability: 5

No. 5 Miami v No. 1 Houston (Miami +7)

Beating this Houston team, with this level of elite guard play and bruising forces down low, is going to take some serious fight and some serious juice. Thankfully for the ‘Canes, they actually matchup against Houston better than most teams in the nation.

Houston is led by veteran guards Marcus Sasser, Jamal Shead, and Tramon Mark – a trio most opponents cannot touch. However, the ‘Canes have a slew of guards just as talented, with ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong as well as Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller. Miami also has the force inside to neutralize the impact of J’Wan Roberts and Jarace Roberts with Norchad Omier – a sophomore averaging 13 points and 10 rebounds a game. Also, they have the legendary coach to match up with Kelvin Sampson, as the always-underrated Jim Laranaga has the ‘Canes back in the second weekend for the second consecutive year.

Miami matches up well against the Cougars; however, I still see the upset chance as slim. It feels like Houston is Miami, only better. However, if Houston comes out slow similarly to their game against Auburn, the ‘Canes may be able to jump on them early and ride their guard play to a win. However, everything will have to go right for Miami in this one.

Upset ability: 2

No. 3 Xavier v. No. 2 Texas (Xavier +4)

Texas has been playing with as much confidence as any team in the nation. They rolled through the Big 12 tournament and decimated a KU squad in the Big 12 title game. This leaves a daunting task for a Musketeer team that has faced two double-digit seeds in Kennesaw State and Pitt. Yet, I would almost guarantee Sean Miller has his team fully believing that they can topple the Longhorns.

Texas can beat you in a variety of different ways. They have the stellar guard play with Marcus Carr and the elusive Sir’Jabari Rice. They have the experienced midrange assassin Timmy Allen. Then, they have the rim runners in Christian Bishop and Dylan Disu that can win them games as well.

However, Xavier possesses much of this versatility. They have tremendous guard play with Colby Jones and Souley Boum, experienced wing play with Jerome Hunter, and a big body down low with former Hawkeye Jack Nunge.

This game is going to be fantastic, and I feel it’s the most overlooked matchup of the Sweet 16. People are counting Xavier out due to their weak matchups in the first weekend, but their utter annihilation of Pitt should not be disregarded. Expect a barn burner in Kansas City on Friday.

Upset ability: 4

No. 8 Arkansas v. No. 4 UConn (Arkansas +4)

We just saw the Razorbacks pull off the upset against Kansas, so surely they can repeat against UConn, right? Yet, it is not as simple as that. Arkansas snuck by a KU team that lost floor general Dajuan Harris for a majority of the game (in which he returned, but was banged up) and was without legendary head coach Bill Self. UConn at the moment, however, is a different beast.

Arkansas relies heavily on their guard play, but down low, they are a bit suspect. Adama Sanogo is averaging 26 ppg in the tournament, and an Arkansas team that continues to find themselves in foul trouble may have no answer for the big fella from Mali. If Arkansas is to upset the Huskies, they need to stay out of foul trouble and rely on their freakish athleticism, especially in their backcourt. Top recruits Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black were very quiet in their win over KU – combining for only 4 points.

If the Razorbacks are to pull off the upset, they will need their star freshmen to shine. Also, after watching Jordan Walsh’s defense on Jalen Wilson, Coach Musselman will likely throw him on whichever wing is hot for the Huskies. Another great game is in store for the fans when these two tip off in Vegas.

Upset ability: 3

No. 3 Gonzaga v. No. 2 UCLA (Gonzaga +1.5)

Whoooof. I’m out of breath just thinking about who will win this game. In a rematch of the 2021 Final Four – in which the ‘Zags won on a Jalen Suggs heave from deep – the Bruins and ‘Zags are set up for another all-time classic. These two teams have very different play styles. UCLA wants to slow the tempo, while the ‘Zags want to up the pace. The pace of play will be the deciding factor in this matchup.

In the ‘Zags favor, UCLA big man Adem Bona is questionable, which would alleviate the defensive intensity on Bulldogs star Drew Timme. If the Bulldogs are to pull off the “upset,” they will need others to step up outside of Timme. While “Timme time” has been the story of the tournament, the offensive prowess of Julian Strawther must shine as well as the defensive intensity of senior Anton Watson – who you can expect to be tied to the hip of Bruins star Jaime Jaquez Jr. Watson is the key that starts the car for the ‘Zags, as other Bulldogs have publicly shared their frustration towards the lack of credit Watson receives in their success.

In the third matchup all-time between the duos of Timme/Watson and Campbell/Jaquez, expect a thriller as these two teams have unexpected history.

Upset ability: 4
The path for each team: How we arrived at our Sweet 16

March 21st, 2023

By: George Ahearn

The first weekend of the NCAA tournament has concluded, and we can finally take a breath and settle ourselves before we are thrown back into the fray on Thursday when the Sweet 16 kicks off. Before the “tournament inside the tournament” commences, let’s revisit the chaos of the first two rounds and detail what got each team to the second weekend.

Alabama Crimson Tide (one-seed)

Are you surprised? The No. 1 overall seed had matchups with Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and then met the ‘Terps in the second round. Kevin Willard did an amazing job in his first year at the helm at Maryland, but they stood no chance against the Tide. Alabama dominated in their first-round matchup without freshman star Brandon Miller scoring a single point.

The story for the Tide has been the play of infamous mixtape legend Jahvon “Jelly JQ” Quinerly, who led Nate Oats’ squad with 22 points in a win in their second-round matchup – a year removed from tearing his ACL in last season’s NCAA tournament.

San Diego State Aztecs (5)

The path for the Aztecs has been less than daunting, as they faced 12-seed Charleston and 13-seed Furman. However – winning in this tournament can’t be overlooked – and they outlasted a feisty Cougar squad before dismantling a strong Furman team to advance to the Sweet 16.

When watching SDSU, their physical play has been apparent, and analysts have been describing their play as watching “grown men out there.” The Aztecs have been slightly disrespected all season, but their true test will come against Alabama in the Sweet 16.

Creighton Bluejays (6)

The Bluejays have paved their way to the Sweet 16 in two very different ways. In the Round of 64 against NC State, they leaned heavily on star big man Ryan Kalkbrenner – who had 31 points on 11 of 14 shooting. Then – in their second-round matchup against 3-seed Baylor – they relied on their hot shooting to upset the Bears, as they shot a flaming 45.8% from beyond the arc and went 22 of 22 from the charity stripe.

Creighton has displayed the versatility that makes their team so special in these first two matchups and have shown that when they put it all together, they are one of the most dangerous teams in the nation.

Princeton Tigers (15)

For the third year in a row, we have a 15-seed in the Sweet 16. In their first-round contest against 2 seed Arizona, Princeton capitalized on poor shooting from Arizona and played stout defense to outlast the Wildcats and advance to the second round. Here, they displayed their clear offensive chemistry to dominate Missouri. Not outlast them, but dominate them.

Princeton is a 15 seed that has proven they belong – garnering the largest margin of victory for such a seed in tournament history against Missouri. Head coach Mitch Henderson has his alma mater playing their best ball in program history, and they will likely give the Bluejays a run for their money in an unexpected Sweet 16 matchup.

Florida Atlantic Owls (9)

Princeton may be the most shocking team in the Sweet 16, but FAU isn’t far behind. The Owls played the most electrifying game of the tournament in their Round of 64 win against Memphis, in which they won with a game-winning layup with three seconds on the clock after being awarded possession on a questionable jump ball call. They then faced FDU – who shocked the world by beating 1 seed Purdue – and were able to survive the hostile crowd and the momentum-backed Knights to advance to the Sweet 16.

Their will to win is clear, and that will is what has driven them to early success in the Big Dance.

Tennessee Volunteers (4)

The ‘Vols came out the gates firing, creating an early, double-digit lead against ULL. Yet, the Ragin’ Cajuns came firing back – giving Tennessee a scare. However, the ‘Vols survived – settling into the tournament and preparing for a red-hot Duke team.

Without point guard Zakai Ziegler, the ‘Vols relied on their physical play to send them to the Sweet 16. They played “bully ball” against a young Blue Devils squad – especially with freshman center Kyle Filipowski – forcing him to shoot 6 of 16 from the field and 0 of 5 from beyond the arc. The ‘Vols also were supported by knockdown shooting from senior Olivier Nkamhoua – who tied his career-high with 27 points.

Kansas State Wildcats (3)

The culture Jerome Tang has built in his first year at Kansas State is palpable. Locker room videos of the Wildcats players and coaches clapping to Lil Baby’s “Low Down” is a visible example of the culture Tang has instilled. They took care of Montana State before a second-round showdown with Kentucky was set in stone.

Floor general Markquis Nowell had a career-defining game – leading the Wildcats with 27 points and highlight-reel plays throughout the game. Oh, and he played all forty minutes. Nowell embodies the style of play the Wildcats wish to play with, and, as Tang said, they have some “dudes” that make them difficult to beat.

Michigan State Spartans (7)

Shocked? You shouldn’t be. Tom Izzo does this in March. Their starting lineup is littered with upperclassmen and their backcourt duo of A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker lead the Spartans to wins.

In their matchup against Marquette, the nation’s sixth ranked three-point shooting team shot a measly 2 of 16 from behind the arc, yet were still able to upset 2 seed Marquette. How? Because of Tom Izzo and experienced starters – a recipe he has been using for a long, long time in March.

Houston Cougars (1)

Houston had early scares in their first-round matchup against Northern Kentucky when stars Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead both suffered injuries. It looked like the same injury history that has plagued the Cougars in the past. However, Kelvin Sampson’s unit overcame these injuries, and Sasser and Shead were on the court for their Round of 32 contest against Auburn.

The game was played in Birmingham – essentially rewarding the Tigers with home-court advantage, where they had been lethal all season. The Cougars used a dominant second half to run away from Auburn and send themselves to the Sweet 16. This is only the start for a Cougars team that has title aspirations. So, good luck to anyone facing this Kelvin Sampson squad – starting with Miami.

Miami Hurricanes (5)

The great Jon Rothstein has a slew of phrases to describe various college basketball teams. Yet, the best one may pertain to the Hurricanes. Rothstein describes the ‘Canes as having “more guards than Shawshank,” and this sentiment was never more evident than in their Round of 32 matchup against Indiana.

After a strong second half propelled them past feisty 12 seed Drake, they used their momentum from this comeback and decimated the Hoosiers. Head coach Jim Larranaga is aging like fine wine, and he has the ‘Canes in the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive year.

Xavier Musketeers (3)

The post-season looked bleak for the Musketeers midway through the second-half against 14 seed Kennesaw State, as they trailed by 13 points with little time left to save their season. Yet, Xavier rallied on the back of a 17-0 run to advance to the Round of 32, allowing for them to leave their tournament jitters behind and focus on Pitt, and that they did.

The legendary Ian Eagle made a “Boum goes the dynamite” call after a Souley Boum acrobatic layup put the Musketeers up 20 – summing up Xavier’s Round of 32 rout of Pitt. In Sean Miller’s return to Cincinnati, he’s put the X back on the map.

Texas Longhorns (2)

Texas expected to see themselves here. Rodney Terry’s team has experience throughout and each player has a specific role that comes together in a game – like they are each a piece of a jigsaw puzzle. They took care of business against Colgate and then conquered a red-hot Penn State team that was capable of competing with anyone in the nation.

They leaned on the Lamarcus Aldridge-esque play (in Kevin Durant’s words) of Dylan Disu, and he delivered down the stretch with 28 total points.

Arkansas Razorbacks (8)

After easily handling Illinois in the Round of 64, Arkansas looked to have their hands full in their second-round matchup against defending champions Kansas. However, the Muss-Bus rolled into a hostile crowd in Des Moines and conquered the Jayhawks. If you were to tell me the Razorbacks were to pull off this upset before the tournament, I would have assumed stellar performances from Ricky Council IV and Nick Smith Jr.; however it was Devo Davis and Jordan Walsh that shined.

Council still had 21, but Davis had a remarkably efficient 25. Walsh on the other hand, was the X-factor. He played exceptional defense against perennial player of the year Jalen Wilson and won the game on an outstanding tip-out.

The Razorbacks have put the pieces together and are capitalizing on the potential everyone knew they had before the season.

UConn Huskies (4)

Dominant second-halves have been the story for the Huskies, as through two games they’ve outscored their opponents 89-49 in the second. The Huskies have been HOOPING: there’s simply no better way to put it. Jordan Hawkins has been automatic, and the big fella Adama Sanogo (26 ppg in the Big Dance) has held it down in the interior.

They dominated a Saint Mary’s team that was underrated all season and finished the year ranked thirteenth in KenPom. As Iona head coach Rick Pitino said, this team has the tools to win it all.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (3)

After the ‘Zags dominated Grand Canyon in the Round of 64, they faced a difficult second-round test against a gritty TCU squad led by junior Mike Miles Jr. The story of this matchup? Timme Time. The mustached assassin went off for 28 points and eight boards – leading the ‘Zags to a three-point win.

The combination of Timme and coach Mark Few unsurprisingly led the ‘Zags to the Sweet 16 once again, but the question will be: is this finally their year?

UCLA Bruins (2)

Despite the slew of injuries thrown Mick Cronin’s way, he has his Bruins back in the Sweet 16. The season-ending injury to the PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year – Jaylen Clark – hasn’t yet held the Bruins back, and that can be attributed to the leadership of seniors Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. – two members of this Bruins squad who made the Final Four two years prior.

The hunger of these two have carried the Bruins to the Sweet 16, and a rematch of the Final Four from two years ago against Gonzaga will decide if they continue their push towards a title.
Matchups to watch in March: Analyzing the Round of 64

March 15th, 2023
By: William Smythe

It’s finally here. With one day of play-ins already in the rearview, the Big Dance is shaping up to surprise in arguably the most unpredictable year of CBB in recent history. No one-seed is invincible – despite overall no. 1 Alabama’s recent dominance – and the 12/13 line is one of the strongest collections of mid-majors we’ve seen.

Could this be the year of a St. Peter’s or 2011 VCU?

Before chaos ensues, let’s break down some of the key narratives/matchups for the Round of 64.

Providence’s Bryce Hopkins takes on his old team

I’m sure Coach Cal wasn’t too enthused when he saw the draw on Sunday. Despite the relative ease of the ‘Cats schedule – if they are to sneak by eleven-seed Providence – he’ll have to go through a former player – Friar forward Bryce Hopkins (16.1 ppg).

The first-team All-Big East selection transferred from Kentucky in the off-season – having averaged 2.1 points in Lexington. In 2022-23, Hopkins excelled under Coach Ed Cooley and helped the Friars gain a foothold in the top-25, even despite their recent struggles.

This could go either way. Kentucky’s Jacob Toppin (and likely center Oscar Tshiebwe) have seen plenty of Hopkins’ game and may know exactly what it takes to limit his production; on the other hand, the Providence star will certainly be looking for revenge. Such a narrative can transcend a “bad” matchup, and I’m leaning towards a mammoth outing from Hopkins and a Round of 32 appearance for the Friars.

Regardless, expect plenty of TV coverage tailored towards the clash of familiar foes.

Arkansas-Illinois winner is a nightmare for Kansas

Instead of splitting the mid-major matchup of Memphis-FAU, the committee pit the SEC’s Arkansas and the Big Ten’s Illinois against each other in a must-see matchup in Des Moines. These teams – especially the ‘Hogs – have fallen far short of expectations in their respective conferences, yet the tournament benefits those seeking second chances.

Arkansas’ freshmen – guards Nick Smith Jr. (14.0 ppg), Anthony Black (12.8 ppg) and Jordan Walsh (7.2 ppg) – have kept the ‘Hogs afloat; however, this team has lost four of its last five and haven’t won a ranked matchup since Jan. 4.

Illinois is in a similar boat. The Fighting Illini have lost three of their last four but also boast some impressive wins – over then-no. 2 Texas, then-no. 8 UCLA and then-no. 21 Northwestern. Paced by Texas Tech transfer Terrence Shannon (17.1 ppg) and Baylor addition Matthew Mayer (12.8 ppg), Brad Underwood’s crew has some March experience and isn’t exactly the draw that Arkansas hoped for.

Nonetheless, the Illini have lost freshman Skyy Clark to the transfer portal but will desperately need the play of freshman point guard Jayden Epps – who recently suffered from a minor concussion.

No 8/9 matchup is more interesting than this one. Thanks to the improved play of Smith Jr. and a backcourt that could overwhelm the Illini, I’m giving the ‘Hogs the advantage here. No. 1 seed Kansas will have to fear Eric Musselman’s team, especially with Arkansas’ Elite Eight finishes in 2021 and 2022.

The committee knew what they were doing with Duke-ORU

Despite winning the ACC Tournament, the committee rewarded the Blue Devils with a five-seed and a date against a former Cinderella – Max Abmas’ Golden Eagles. Now a household name, Oral Roberts absolutely ran through their competition – going 16-0 in the Summit League – and finished the season with a 30-4 overall record.

Three of their four losses were to tournament teams, and the Golden Eagles haven’t tasted defeat since Jan. 9 against New Mexico. Combine the pure scoring ability of Abmas (22.2 ppg) with the 7’5 rim presence of Cal transfer Connor Vanover (12.9 ppg), and you have the recipe for a run in March.

Duke, however, is currently playing at the level of a two or three-seed. The Blue Devils have put together a nine-game winning streak and looked the part of a “normal” Duke roster after a dominating performance in the ACC Tournament. Junior guard Jeremy Roach (13.3 ppg) – who will likely be tasked with slowing Abmas down – has caught fire as of late, while freshman center Kyle Filipowski (15.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg) can stretch the floor and bang it down low.

Luckily for Duke, Filipowski and fellow seven-foot freshman Dereck Lively II can neutralize Vanover offensively, yet the Dukies may have to pivot from the paint on the offensive side of things.

Give me Duke to advance, yet know that Abmas and company will put up a fight. A rare W from the committee to put together such a matchup.

Beware Drake, Kent St.

Miami’s fate is largely contingent on the health of center Norchad Omier (14.0 ppg). If the big man from Nicaragua can’t go – or is significantly slowed by injury – the Drake Bulldogs could very well play the underdog role as the twelve-seed in the Midwest.

With wins over tournament teams Louisiana and Miss. St., there’s at least reason to believe that the Bulldogs can hang with the ACC co-champs. Sophomore guard Tucker Devries (19.0 ppg) will have to outduel Miami’s Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, yet the 6’7 scorer has the chops to carry Drake past a Hurricanes team with frontcourt questions.

Also, who was the last MVC team that played Miami in the tournament? 2018 Loyola Chicago.

The matchup right below Miami-Drake also catches the eye, as the fourth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers will square off against the MAC champs – Kent St. The Golden Flashes brought no. 1 seed Houston to the brink earlier this season and have won their last six, with a convincing victory over Toledo sending them to the Dance.

Thanks to the dynamic play of senior guard Sincere Carry (17.6 ppg), the Golden Flashes boast a player seemingly born for March – and someone who will have to overcome freshman sensation Jalen Hood-Schifino and First-Team All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.8 ppg).

Indiana is vulnerable in this spot. If Hood-Schifino struggles to make shots – and if the Golden Flashes double TJD and keep him relatively quiet – Kent State will advance.

Other notes:
- Vermont a no. 15 seed upset pick to monitor, even with Marquette’s recent success
- VCU-St. Mary’s will be a defensive battle, first to 50
- Iona’s Rick Pitino needs to focus on his team before St. John’s, especially with a former Husky on his coaching staff
- Texas A&M-Penn State is a matchup of two teams who deserved a higher seed
Previewing Friday’s slate: Another step towards Selection Sunday

March 10th, 2023

By: William Smythe

Surprisingly, nothing that shocking happened yesterday. St. John’s and DePaul squandered major opportunities to upset the first and second-seeded teams in the Big East – Marquette and Xavier, respectively – yet fell in the final minutes.

Virginia put the nail in the coffin for North Carolina’s hopes to make the NCAA Tournament, with the Tar Heels becoming the first preseason no. 1 ranked team to miss the Big Dance. Lastly, no. 10 Baylor suffered their third loss of the season to an Iowa State team that struggled late in the season – sending the Bears into the tournament with an utter lack of momentum.

Hindsight bias would argue that the ‘Heels had no business being ranked first overall, yet I’ll admit: I had high expectations for Hubert Davis’ crew. Will the likes of R.J. Davis, Caleb Love and Armando Bacot return to Chapel Hill? We shall see.

Today’s slate should see far more excitement, with several blockbuster matchups taking place in the Big East, ACC and Big 12, among others. Let’s dive into it.

No. 6 Marquette v. No. 11 UConn, 6:30 PM

Thank goodness we didn’t have to watch St. John’s/UConn this evening. The Golden Eagles of Marquette rallied from a ten-point halftime deficit in the Big East quarterfinals, eventually triumphing over the Johnnies by two in an overtime thriller.

We can either attribute this dogfight to St. John’s home court advantage of sorts in Madison Square Garden or Marquette’s struggles from behind the arc (26.5%). Regardless, there’s not too much to worry about when considering the nation’s sixth-best team.

UConn has, however, looked sharper than Shaka Smart’s unit as of late. The Huskies have won six straight after falling to then-no. 23 Creighton in Omaha, and they captured a 87-72 victory over Marquette the game before. Despite their mid-season slump, UConn has returned to peak form with the continued dominance of center Adama Sanogo (16.7 ppg) and guard Jordan Hawkins (16.5 ppg) – the latter of whom has been a revelation for Dan Hurley in his sophomore season.

I have to lean with the Huskies in this one. They’ve split their series with Marquette yet have played their best ball since December; moreover, UConn’s fond memories in the Garden give me reason to believe they’ll replicate the days of Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier.

No. 14 Miami v. No. 23 Duke, 7 PM

Coach Jon Scheyer has stepped in admirably in the first year of the post-Coach K era. Arguably one of the hottest teams in college basketball, Duke has rattled off seven-straight wins in conference play, swept North Carolina in the regular season and just throttled Pitt, 96-69, in the ACC quarterfinals.

From the improved play of freshman center Dereck Lively (2.3 bpg) to the backcourt tandem of junior Jeremy Roach (13.0 ppg) and freshman Tyrese Proctor (9.2 ppg), the Blue Devils have taken a significant leap after dropping 20+ point losses to Miami and NC State.

Duke derives its consistency in large part from freshman center Kyle Filipowski (15.2 ppg, 8.9 rpg). Despite posting a goose egg against Virginia, the seven-footer has posted 22 points in his last two contests and will likely play a massive role against Miami.

The Hurricanes are still flying under the radar, even as the no. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament and the no. 14 team in the nation. Coach Jim Larranaga bolstered a roster that reached the Elite Eight with two key transfer additions – Kansas State’s Nijel Pack (13.2 ppg) and Northern Illinois’ Norchad Omier (14.1 ppg, 10.0 rpg) – both of whom have been nothing short of spectacular for Miami.

Out of the ‘Canes six losses, only two are in the “bad” territory – an 18-point defeat early in the year to Maryland and a one-point heartbreaker against Florida State. Their last two games haven’t been the prettiest, but the ACC Regular Season Co-Champs have the starting five and the depth to battle with the Blue Devils again.

Expect the battle between Filipowski and Omier to be physical throughout, with Duke’s supposed advantage in the frontcourt contrasting with Miami’s weapons in the backcourt.

I’m giving it to the Blue Devils here. This team is unbelievably hot and looking to turn some heads before the Big Dance…even if it’s Duke, an underrated narrative exists.

No. 2 UCLA v. Oregon, 9 PM

UCLA will miss Jaylen Clark dearly. The Bruins’ second-leading scorer and the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year is out for the season with an Achilles tear – a brutal blow for a team fit for a Final Four run. In their first game without him, UCLA struggled – ultimately pulling away late from a ninth-seeded Colorado to seal a 80-69 win in Vegas.

Nonetheless, freshman Amari Bailey stepped up and notched 26 points – a season-high and perhaps a sign of things to come. Without Clark, the depth is thin behind this starting lineup, and the scoring will fall on Bailey (10.3 ppg) and seniors Jaime Jaquez Jr. (17.4 ppg) and Tyger Campbell (13.1 ppg).

After all, Mick Cronin’s bench accounted for three points.

The Bruins’ opponent – fourth-seeded Oregon – is extremely hard to figure out (not in the sense that they’re too good). Following a three-game losing skid, the Ducks have put four wins together albeit against four of the worst teams in the conference.

They’ve also beaten the no. 2 seed in the Pac-12 – Arizona – by 18 and exited Tempe with a five-point win over a bubble team in Arizona State. They’re not bad.

Everything hinges on the health of senior center N’Faly Dante (13.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg), who claims to be ready to go after suffering from an ankle tweak in the quarterfinals. Dante – alongside senior transfer Jermaine Couisnard (13.2 ppg) – have paced the Ducks throughout the season and are fighting to keep their tournament hopes alive.

With Clark out for UCLA, Couisnard and the rest of Oregon’s guards may see a slight advantage – assuming that Campbell will match up against the Ducks’ Will Richardson (12.2 ppg, 5.2 apg). Meanwhile, Dante will once again clash with the 6’10 freshman Adem Bona. Luckily for the Ducks, they have two seven-footers on the bench in case of injury to their leading scorer or if foul trouble arises.

A veteran starting lineup which features four seniors and one junior will be hungry to upset the Bruins tonight. I foresee the Ducks preying on UCLA’s thin roster – giving them a chance to take on either Arizona or Arizona State in the finals.

Other matchups:

No. 7 Texas v. No. 22 TCU: Timmy Allen (10.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) is out for the ‘Horns, so I’m going with an “upset” from TCU here.

No. 3 Kansas v. Iowa State: Kansas looked dominant against West Virginia and is one of the few teams that can dissect the Cyclones’ defense.

No. 15 Xavier v. No. 23 Creighton: The Bluejays will outmuscle the Musketeers in the frontcourt after the loss of Zach Freemantle.

No. 18 Texas A&M v. Arkansas: Watch out for the Razorbacks, who could make a run in the SEC Tournament with such a talented freshman core.