The best moments of conference tournament week come from players rising to the occasion, fueled by the looming end of their season – or even their college careers – when the final buzzer sounds.

This desperation, coupled with favorable paths, creates bid stealers each season: teams that earn automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament by winning their conference tournament but would not have made the field otherwise.

Below, we dive into three conferences: the ACC, Big 12 and Big East, highlighting potential bid stealers and key bubble information to know as the best stretch in sports continues.

ACC

When February began, the common notion was that the ACC had rebounded from its recent dreadful seasons. The conference – once synonymous with college basketball prowess – had been passed by its peers over the last few years.

In 2025, the ACC only had four teams go dancing: Duke, Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina. Yet this season, the conference appeared to be returning to its old ways, with as many as eight teams potentially earning bids to the NCAA Tournament. However, a miserable end to the regular season for some of the conference’s bubble teams has created some precarious positions as the teams head to Charlotte.

Bubble Teams: NC State, Cal, Stanford, SMU, Virginia Tech

Potential Bid Stealers: Virginia Tech, Florida State

Virginia Tech

There are a couple of reasons why Virginia Tech could waltz out of the ACC Tournament with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Hokies, despite earning a No. 12 seed and having to play in the first round, have a relatively favorable path.

Their first contest comes against Wake Forest on Tuesday, March 10. The Hokies recently took care of the Demon Deacons, 82-63, when they played on Feb. 21. If Virginia Tech can get past Wake, it would face Clemson.

The Hokies also defeated the Tigers the last time they matched up, winning 76-66 on the road at Littlejohn Coliseum on Feb. 11. Clemson flexed its muscles early in league play, jumping out to a 10-1 start in conference action. However, it has won just two of its last seven games. One of those two victories during that stretch was a measly three-point win over 11-20 Georgia Tech. Gross.

If Virginia Tech wins its first two games, the next three victories would be much harder to come by. The Hokies would then face North Carolina, likely followed by a matchup with Duke, and then whichever team emerges from the other side of the bracket in the championship game. While Virginia Tech would not be expected to win any of these matchups, it may not be as far-fetched as it seems.

North Carolina is without freshman phenom Caleb Wilson for the rest of the season. The Tar Heels’ most impressive feat this year is their 18-0 record at home. If you take North Carolina out of the Dean Dome and face them without Wilson, the upset suddenly becomes much more attainable.

Taking down Duke would present an even tougher challenge, but they too face injury concerns. Senior point guard Caleb Foster and freshman big man Pat Ngongba were both wearing walking boots in the second half of the regular season finale against UNC. A desperate Hokies team facing a less-inspired Duke squad focused on its health ahead of the NCAA Tournament could create the recipe for an upset.

Then would come the championship game. If the Hokies make it this far, all bets are off. They would clearly possess the moxie and confidence to cut down the nets in Charlotte and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. 

If this scenario feels similar, it’s because it is. In Mike Young’s second season at the helm in Blacksburg, he led the No. 7 seed Hokies to an ACC Tournament title – upsetting No. 2 seed Notre Dame, No. 3 seed UNC and finally No. 1 seed Duke in the championship – to automatically qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

The caveat with Virginia Tech lies it its proximity to the bubble. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Hokies among the “First Four Out.” If Virginia Tech wins its first three games in Charlotte, it will likely be dancing regardless of whether it captures the ACC Tournament title.

Florida State

The Seminoles are a thoroughbred bid stealer. With no chance at earning an at-large bid, the only way for Luke Loucks’ team to go dancing is by winning the ACC Tournament.

The main reason Florida State could play the role of bid stealer is – similarly to Virginia Tech – the path could prove favorable. The Seminoles earned the No. 8 seed in the tournament and will face Cal in the second round.

Florida State defeated the Golden Bears, 63-61, in their lone matchup this season. If the Seminoles win their opener, they would draw Duke. As mentioned when outlining Virginia Tech’s path, the Blue Devils are facing significant injury issues. Further, Florida State competed well with the Blue Devils when the teams met on Jan. 3, falling 91-87.

What may be even more indicative of Florida State’s chances to win the ACC than its path is its form over the last month. The Seminoles have won nine of their last 11 games, with the two losses coming to No. 10 Virginia and previously ranked Miami.

Florida State is led by Robert McCrary V, who averages 15.6 points per game to go along with 6.1 assists and 3.8 rebounds. Fellow senior Chauncey Wiggins is playing his best basketball of late, scoring a career-high 31 points in the regular season finale against SMU.

The Seminoles played their way out of at-large contention with poor non-conference results, yet they have been a formidable opponent throughout league play. They possess the right combination of experience and desperation to make a run in Charlotte and steal a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Big 12

The Big 12 will likely send at least eight teams to the NCAA Tournament in a couple of weeks. Arguably the most top-heavy league in the sport, the potential for a bid stealer out of the Big 12 feels unlikely.

Bubble Teams: UCF, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

Potential Bid Stealer: Baylor

Will this happen? Likely not. Yet if there was a gun to my head, and I had to pick a Big 12 team to steal an NCAA Tournament bid, it would be Baylor.

There are a few reasons why the Bears would be the pick. Firstly? Scott Drew. The Baylor head coach, who has a national championship victory under his belt, has a proven ability to win in March.

The Bears also feature an uber-talented tandem of guards in Cameron Carr and freshman Tounde Yessoufou. Carr, a sophomore, averages 19 points per game with Yessoufou accounting for 18 per outing.

The Bears are the No. 13 seed in the tournament, opening against No. 12 seed Arizona State.

A win would set up a matchup with No. 5 seed Iowa State, followed by a clash with No. 4 seed Texas Tech. Baylor has proven it can compete with the Cyclones, taking the seventh-ranked team to the brink in Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 7, losing 72-69.

Against Texas Tech, a much different result emerged. Baylor was stomped by the Red Raiders, 92-73, on Jan. 20. Unfortunately for Grant McCasland’s team, they are now more vulnerable to an upset after losing All-American hopeful J.T. Toppin to a season-ending torn ACL. The Red Raiders also dropped their final two games of the season to unranked opponents.

Next would be a predicted showdown with No. 1 seed Arizona. The Wildcats are one of the nation’s best, completing a 29-2 regular-season record that has them destined for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, the Bears gave Arizona a scare on Feb. 24, leading the Wildcats by seven at halftime before ultimately falling 87-80.

It’s a tall order for Baylor to win five games in as many days to make the NCAA Tournament – only two teams have completed the feat since 1925: NC State and UConn – but Baylor has the coaching savvy and backcourt talent to challenge the league’s top teams and create chaos in the Big 12 Tournament.

Big East

The hope for the Big East – especially in the NIL era that forces other power-conference schools to divert roughly 75% of their revenue sharing to football programs – was that, top-to-bottom, it would be one of the strongest leagues in the nation.

However, the inverse has unfolded for the basketball-first conference. Only three teams are expected to make the NCAA Tournament: UConn, St. John’s and Villanova. While the reemergence of the Wildcats under head coach Kevin Willard’s guidance has been a welcome return, other NCAA Tournament regulars have drastically underperformed.

Creighton sits 15-16 overall with a 9-11 in-conference record, its second-worst mark since joining the Big East in 2013. Marquette has fared even worse, mustering together a 12-9 record, its worst season since former head coach Steve Wojciechowski’s first year in 2014.

Other programs have struggled as well. Georgetown hasn’t improved under head coach Ed Cooley, going 6-14 in league play. Xavier and Providence are both owners of 14-17 records. It hasn’t been pretty.

Bubble Teams: –

Potential Bid Stealers: Seton Hall, Providence

Providence

If you have followed the Friars this season, the idea of them cutting down the nets in Madison Square Garden may sound preposterous.

Losers of their last two – against Marquette and Georgetown, no less – Providence is arguably playing its least-inspired basketball yet. Head coach Kim English has been informed he will be relieved of his duties at the end of the season.

Maybe the team has quit on the season. Maybe the recent outcomes have them ready to wrap up the year.

Yet, there is something magnetic about a potential Providence, last-breath type of run that fits the magic of Madison Square Garden during Big East Tournament week.

The Friars enter as the No. 9 seed with a matchup against eighth-seeded Butler looming. Both regular-season matchups against the Bulldogs went to double overtime, with the teams splitting the season series 1-1. 

A win would set up a showdown with No. 1 seed St. John’s. While an upset is unlikely, Providence has shown valiant efforts against the Big East’s elite. The Friars defeated St. John’s 77–71 earlier this season and nearly upset UConn before falling 103–98 in overtime. Both losses to Villanova came by just six points.

Providence’s high-powered offense is a key reason they can compete. Averaging 85.5 points per game – the top mark in the Big East and 19th nationally – the Friars are led by three 15-plus point-per-game scorers: Jaylin Sellers, Jason Edwards, and Stefan Vaaks.

With talent above the typical 14-win team, Providence has the pieces to make a final statement. In one last effort from Kim English, the Friars could etch themselves into Big East lore.

Seton Hall

Seton Hall found themselves ranked 25th on Jan. 13 as they headed into a matchup with No. 3 UConn. Positioned well for an NCAA Tournament bid, the Pirates seemed poised for their first NCAA Tournament berth under Shaheen Holloway.

But the Pirates have been unable to beat the Big East’s “big three” of UConn, St. John’s, and Villanova, going 0–6 against the projected tournament teams. To earn an at-large bid, they now likely need to run the table in the Big East Tournament.

Fortunately for the No. 4 seed Pirates, their path isn’t daunting. First up: No. 5 Creighton. Both regular-season contests were close, with Seton Hall winning the first 56–54 and losing the second 69–68.

A win would likely set up a matchup with St. John’s. Though 0–2 against the Red Storm this season, the contests have been tight. Both teams play a defensive-oriented style, so the Pirates could sneak out a victory in a low-scoring affair.

They only need to win two games to advance to the Big East Championship. Once there, the stage is set. Seton Hall would be more than capable of knocking off UConn or Villanova in that spot.

While a bid stealer from a conference dominated by three teams seems unlikely, the fact that only three teams are expected to make the NCAA Tournament opens the door for upsets. Providence, Seton Hall, or other talented but underperforming teams like Marquette or Creighton could surprise.

Late-season fireworks in the Big East may yet change the narrative of an otherwise underwhelming season.