By: William Smythe

As we all likely expected, parity has dominated the college basketball landscape. The transfer portal and NIL has evolved – whether you like it or not – to even the playing field, especially in conferences such as the Big East and Big 12 (cannibalization inbound). It’s grown increasingly difficult to take road games, in particular, as litmus tests for every squad hovering around the top 25; unless you’re U.Va., you can afford to drop a few away from home.

You could argue that the bottom five spots in the AP Poll could belong to twenty deserving rosters. The talent is stretched across the D-1 realm – including a surprise year from the Mountain West, who may field 4+ tournament teams – and surprises have abounded. However, there may be a massive gap between the top few or so teams and the “rest,” but that is still up for debate. Let’s begin with a team who is distancing themselves…

Purdue hasn’t lost a step from their 2022-23 regular season form

Fairleigh Dickinson overshadowed what was a masterclass in coaching from Matt Painter last season. The Boilermakers won both the regular season B10 title and the conference tournament, boasting arguably the school’s finest season up until disaster in March struck. This year, Purdue has returned with a vengeance. Painter, wisely enough, scheduled another brutal non-conference slate with contests against Tennessee, Marquette, Gonzaga and Arizona, alongside games against what-would-be weaker opponents in Xavier and Alabama.

The Boilermakers somehow escaped unscathed from the lion’s den on the 7’4 shoulders of Zach Edey – complemented well by sophomore guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. The former may just be the straw that stirs the drink for Purdue, having combined for 71 points in wins over then-No. 1 Arizona, Alabama and then-No. 4 Marquette.

The supporting cast matters if Purdue seeks to make a U.Va.-type championship run following their loss to FDU. Luckily for Painter, his team is multifaceted in a way unmatched by last year’s squad, good as they were. Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones has begun to emerge as a legitimate scoring threat alongside Loyer and the Smith, and the forwards are deep behind Edey. This seems to be the year for a Boilermaker run.

The Mountain West is churning out elite teams

By far the best G5 conference, the MW is poised to catapult up to five of their teams into the Big Dance. Led by Colorado State – who earned a six seed in March Madness two years ago – the conference has supplanted its western counterpart (the failing Pac-12) as the premier collection of teams west of the Mississippi. The Rams and the national runner-ups from last season – San Diego State – will likely stay within the top 25 for the duration of the season.

Nothing will be easy in the MW, even for the aforementioned two. New Mexico strung together 11 wins before falling at Colorado State in what was, for the most part, a highly competitive game. Utah State has the opportunity to leap into the Top 25 with a win at home tonight against the Rams (they’re -1.5), and a 13-1 Nevada should be a threat within the conference. I expect four teams to reach the Big Dance – the Rams, Aztecs, Aggies and Lobos – and the Wolfpack could continue their strong play and return to March for the first time since Eric Musselman.

The players in this conference, moreover, are dangerous. Colorado State’s Isaiah Stevens (17.4 PPG, 7.4 APG) is a surefire All-American candidate, and San Diego State’s Jaedon LeDee (21.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG) has improved tremendously after the departure of current Arizona forward Keshad Johnson. New Mexico’s Donovan Dent (16.3 PPG) is also a candidate for Most Improved, having risen to the top of a loaded backcourt as a sophomore.

Don’t be surprised if a Final Four team comes from the Mountain West.

Bluebloods North Carolina and Kentucky have shaken off preseason doubts

Kentucky’s season seemed headed for disappointment after the departures of NPOY Oscar Tshiebwe and freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston, among other transfers, yet the Wildcats’ freshmen crop is special. Enter Reed Sheppard, arguably the least talked about in the group yet the most impactful contributor for Calipari so far this season (he’s the X-factor). The Kentucky native is averaging 12.5 PPG – good for fourth on the team – while shooting 56% from three. He’s also averaged a mind-boggling 2.8 steals per game and is second on the team is assists per game (4.3).

Sheppard – alongside senior Antonio Reeves and a first-year guard duo of DJ Wagner and Rob Dillingham – has helped the Wildcats to an 11-2 start, putting to bed any concerns about their elite pedigree. There’s a brutal loss on their schedule, yes, but the seven-point home loss to UNC Wilmington a month ago is far behind Kentucky. Calipari’s squad has since beaten a No. 9 ranked UNC and recently upended a tricky Florida team on the road.

I do have to ask Reed Sheppard this, though: why foul a Gator late when you’re up four?

The Tar Heels have exceeded preseason expectations much like the Wildcats, standing in opposition to their preseason No. 1 rank last year – which turned into a rejected NIT bid at the end of the season. Much of the reason for Carolina’s reemergence has been the play of senior guard R.J. Davis, a first-team All-American in my eyes and perhaps the best pure scorer there is in college basketball. Davis – pressured less to take on point guard responsibilities with freshman Elliot Cadeau in the fold – is averaging a blistering 21.1 PPG and has made some jaw-dropping shots over the course of the year.

Graduate forward Armando Bacot remains the steady anchor of this roster, bolstered by several transfer additions – Notre Dame’s Cormac Ryan and Stanford’s Harrison Ingram – who may be replacing Brady Manek’s production in the aggregate. I expect the Tar Heels to run the table in the ACC so long as they pocket a win over Miami or Duke, a welcome thought for Carolina fans facing the “Gates of Hell-level Epitome of Brutality” after last season.

Alongside Kansas, traditional powers have performed thus far.