By: George Ahearn

Week 10 has blessed us with one of the best slate of games of the season, with top-25 matchups littered across the board. In addition to this slew of intriguing matchups is the largest betting preview of the season. We have detailed nine games in which we feel we have an edge, and a majority of these picks involve some of the more talked-about games of the weekend. Buckle your seatbelts, and let’s ride for what will surely be another jam-packed Saturday.

Notre Dame v. Clemson (+3) | Noon 

Many have marked this season as the end of the Clemson football era, and it is hard to argue with this sentiment. The Tigers sit at 4-4 and an even more disappointing 2-4 in the ACC, records uncharacteristic of the Dabo Swinney era. While this season has been undeniably disheartening, it cannot be understated how the unpredictability of college football has altered the direction of this Clemson team’s season. 

As Coach Swinney said, “If we didn’t lead the nation in fumbles, we’d be 8-0.” While this may not be the full truth, missed field goals and crucial red zone fumbles lost them the game against both Duke and Florida State. With those two wins early in the season, Clemson truly could be undefeated. 

Nonetheless, they have the losses, and the public opinion on Clemson could not be any lower. Yet for us, this is a great spot to back the Tigers. We forget that this team was ranked No. 9 in the preseason poll, and while the preseason poll does not mean much, it is a testament to Clemson’s potential.

Dabo Swinney owns a 165-41 record at home and has continuously proven his ability to get his players amped to play in front of raucous Death Valley crowds. This, coupled with a young, inexperienced head coach in Marcus Freeman on the Notre Dame sideline makes me comfortable in backing the Tigers.

Coming off two-straight, embarrassing road losses that have put Clemson in a position to miss out on a bowl game, the Tigers should be motivated once again against the No. 15 Irish. 

Back the Tigers in Death Valley, but take the +3. After watching the blundered field goal attempt in the Florida State game, those three points could prove to be crucial. 

The play? Clemson +3 (2u)

Texas A&M (+3) v. Ole Miss | Noon

There is a special place in my heart for the Texas A&M Aggies this year, and I’m not sure why. Possibly it is my unwavering confidence in Jimbo Fisher or the consistent “trap” lines the Aggies receive week after week. Either way, this Texas A&M team is good, and their +3 line against Ole Miss this weekend is another piece of evidence that bookmakers agree with my belief in the Aggies. 

A&M sits at 5-3 and fourth in the SEC West, a position congruent with where A&M sits in the SEC hierarchy. However, the Aggies have not played up to their potential, and botched opportunities in the Alabama and Tennessee games have led to their defeat in both contests. However, as ESPN analyst Tom Luginbill said, “They [A&M] were clearly the better team, and lost to, I think, a very overrated Tennessee, but A&M could have easily won that game.” Whether you agree with Luginbill in his assessment of Tennessee, it is true that the Aggies should have won that game. 

Their loss to Alabama was a tough, grind-it-out game, and although they lost, their ability to hang in the game with one of the nation’s best proves their formidability. Furthermore, A&M holds the seventh-ranked total defense in the nation, and have halted every offense they have faced this season outside of their early season loss to Miami (FL). This defense should control the momentum of the game and could throw an offensive-oriented Ole Miss off their usual game plan. 

This line of +3 on the road tells me enough, but when diving deeper into A&M, this is a game I think the Aggies win outright to send Ole Miss out of playoff contention.

The play? Texas A&M ML (2u)

Penn State at Maryland +8.5 | 3:30

A Maryland team that started the season 5-0 has faltered as of late, dropping three straight to the likes of Ohio State, Illinois, and Northwestern. Yet, similar to Clemson, the Terps have an opportunity to get back on track with Penn State coming to town. 

Maryland starting 5-0 was not that surprising, as this Terps team always held potential with Taulia Tagovailoa under center. Maryland’s strength has been their offense, and they will need this unit to shine if they want to knock off Penn State, who arguably owns the nation’s best defense. 

What I specifically love in this game for Maryland is the look-ahead spot that Penn State finds themselves in. After losing to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions must win their home game against No. 3 Michigan next weekend if they wish to have a chance to make the College Football Playoff. This chance for Penn State to redeem themselves next weekend has to be weighing on their minds as they travel to College Park. 

With a spread of nine, I expect the Terps to keep this contest close as they catch a Penn State team flat-footed. Roll with Maryland and their points to give the Nittany Lions a scare on Saturday. 

The play? Maryland +9 (1u)

UCF v. Cincinnati +3.5 | 3:30

The introduction to the Big 12 has been harsh to both these teams, as UCF and Cincinnati both remain winless in Big 12 play. Yet, something has to give, and one of these teams will pick up their first win as a member of the Big 12. 

UCF has looked significantly better than Cincinnati, no denying this, but the Bearcats’ psychological factor of playing another conference newcomer with no wins in the Big 12 has to play well in Cincinnati’s players’ minds. 

I told myself I wouldn’t back Emory Jones again, but this spot is undeniable. Playing the limited public backing of the Bearcats, the home ‘dog of just over a field goal, and a team in desperate need of a “pick me up” win, roll with Cincinnati to cover the 3.5 spread. 

The play? Cincinnati +3.5

Washington v. USC +3 | 7:30

With a total of 76.5, this matchup projects to be one of the more entertaining games of the season. Washington is off to an 8-0 start, yet have been quietly playing uninspiring football in their last two contests. Most likely due to the absurdly late start times of these games, people seem unaware that Washington has struggled against inferior foes Arizona State and Stanford, two bottom of the barrel teams in the PAC-12. 

Now, traveling to No. 20 USC, Washington faces their second hardest test of the season. Despite the struggles of the Trojans, including a 3-OT win against Arizona (who’s much better than we thought), back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Utah, and a one-point win against Cal last week, they still remain 5-1 in conference play and sit at second in the PAC-12 standings. With the Trojans’ remaining schedule consisting of games against No. 5 Washington, No. 6 Oregon, and No. 19 UCLA, the time is now for a USC team that has PAC-12 title game aspirations. 

With these losses suffered by the Trojans over the last month, people have started to question quarterback Caleb Williams’ motivation. While I feel these criticisms are unwarranted, this is a contest for which he will be locked in. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. has been one of the best field generals this season and is many media members’ Heisman pick at the moment. With a massive QB matchup, I expect Williams to be the catalyst for this Trojan team and lead them to victory. 

This feels like a game where whoever holds the ball last wins, so let’s play smart and take the three points we’re being given. 

The play? USC +3 (3u)

Miami v. NC State (+5.5) | 8:00

Miami has been one of the most polarizing teams this season, looking like one of the best teams in the ACC until a brutal decision to run the football saw the ‘Canes surrender a late lead to Georgia Tech. They followed this performance with a 10-point loss to North Carolina and were quickly held in the same negative outlook as previous Miami teams of the decade. However, they shook off the dust and rattled off two straight wins, even though they went to OT against a UVA team they were favored by 18.5 over last week. 

For NC State, they have had an up and down season, but are coming off a home win against rival Clemson. This win has the public outlook on the Wolfpack much higher than we have seen this season, and such a  perception may lead to a good buy-low spot on the ‘Canes. 

Miami is a great team, but the poor play calling of the Mario Cristobal era continues to reemerge, resulting in inexplicable losses at points this season. My belief is that Miami is simply a much better team than NC State, and the fact they are favored by 5.5-points on the road in a hostile, night game environment, makes me feel as if the ‘Canes are going to get back to their roots and roll the Wolfpack. 

Expect QB Tyler Van Dyke to play well, and lead the Hurricanes to a resounding victory. 

The play? Miami -5.5 (1u)

Florida State v. Pitt (50.5) | 3:30 

Rarely have I given out totals on this page, but I am dipping my toe a little deeper into the water this weekend. When I play a total, largely it is due to the significance of the number or a number that is positioned contrary to the projected outlook of a game. In this case, the number seems substantially lower than I’d expect. 

Florida State averages 41.5 points per contest, and their offense has proven lethal week after week. On the contrary, this is a Pitt defense that gives up 29 points per game. Given these two stats, this game should project to go way over 50.5. However, the total opened at 51, and with 81% of bets piling in on the over, the total dropped a half-point. This movement coupled with the original eye-popping number of 50.5 leads me towards playing the under. 

If Pitt, the home team in this one, has any chance of keeping this game close, they need to limit FSU’s scoring. The Panthers have proven the ability to pull off the upset (while not one of this magnitude), and their rout of Louisville has me believing in the Panthers defense to slow the Seminole offense just enough for this under to cash. 

On the other side, the Florida State defense is almost as relentless as their offense. They are ranked 30^th in the nation in total defense, and should eradicate an unimpressive Pitt offense. 

The play? Under 50.5 (1u)

Purdue v. Michigan (50.5) | 7:30

Michigan is favored by 32.5 points in a conference game. That is utterly absurd, regardless of how dominant the Wolverines have looked on the field. However, this spread being above 30 points is indicative of how good of football the Wolverines have been playing, regardless of sign-stealing accusations. 

With this scandal in the public spotlight, I expect the Wolverines to take out their anger on the Boilermakers. 

Purdue, a team that let up 31 to Nebraska last week, 41 to Ohio State two weeks ago, and 20 to IOWA the week prior, does not stand a chance in slowing the Wolverines down. I expect Michigan to put up over 40 points on their own, and Purdue will find a way to score at least 10 in what projects to be a blowout victory for Michigan. 

The play? Purdue/Michigan Over 50.5

Kentucky v. Mississippi State (46)

In their last two contests, Mississippi State has put up an underwhelming 20 combined points. On the flip side, Kentucky has shown the ability to score, but that is not how head coach Mark Stoops wishes to win football games.

In a conference game in which both teams desperately need wins, I expect the physicality to be through the roof, creating a defensive battle

In a game where I lean the Bulldogs, as 88% of spread bets are on the Wildcats to cover -5, I expect this game to be relatively close, supporting my position on this under. Expect the game to be close, low, and gross, the perfect recipe for an under. 

The play? Under 46