By: George Ahearn

Utah vs. Oregon State (-3.5) | O/U 44.5 | 9:00p ET on FS1

Despite the absence of QB Cam Rising through four games to start the season, the Utah Utes have managed to stay undefeated despite a challenging non-conference schedule. On the flip side, Oregon State just suffered their first loss of the season Saturday when they traveled to Pullman, a game in which they lost 38-35.

One major question revolving around this game is the health of Cam Rising. The sixth-year senior, who tore his ACL in last season’s Rose Bowl, has yet to suit up for the Utes this season, and the mystery of when Rising will see his first action of the season continues. If Rising does not suit up, expect Nate Johnson to be under center. Last week, the Utah offense only scored seven points in their 14-7 win over UCLA, the same Ute offense that is ranked 112^th nationally in total offense and 119^th nationally in passing offense (via KSL.com). 

For the Beavers, their first true challenge came last weekend at Washington State. OSU closed as -2.5 point favorites, and it was a line I liked and bet myself. I thought the fact they were favored against a Cougars squad with bountiful momentum and a high-throttle offense was telling of the Beavers talent. Yet, Oregon State came out sluggish, and, despite winning the fourth quarter 21-3, they left Pullman with a three-point loss. 

Now, Oregon State matches up with a top-10 Utah team on a Friday night in which they are more than a field goal favorite. Once again, I am backing the Beavers. Regardless of who is under center for the Utes, I expect the offense to struggle against a ferocious Oregon State defense who felt they were embarrassed after surrendering 35 points and allowing Wazzu QB Cam Ward to put up five total touchdowns. 

Oregon State wants to run the football, and QB D.J. Uiagalelei will take care of the rock and help the Beavers control the pace. While this game is currently sitting at -3.5, I would wait for the status of Cam Rising to become official to see if you can avoid the hook on the 3. If not, shop around for a -3 number or potentially buy it down, but I’d still play the Beavers at -3.5, just for a little less.

The play: Oregon State -3

Cincinnati (-2) v. BYU | O/U 48 | 10:15p ET on ESPN

The Bearcats travel out west Friday night to face BYU for both’s first matchup as new members of the Big 12. For Cincinnati, their inaugural season in the Big 12 has not started in the manner in which they would have hoped or expected. Last week, they lost to Oklahoma 20-6 in their Big 12 conference debut. While the loss was expected, they were looking for a bounce-back, statement win after the previous week in which they dropped a home game to Miami (OH) by a score of 31-24. Now, the Bearcats sit at an underwhelming 2-2. 

For BYU, their opening games as a member of the Big-12 tell a much different story. While they dropped their opening conference game against Kansas, who now sits at No. 24 in the AP poll, they were able to go on the road in a hostile SEC environment and take down Arkansas despite being eight-point underdogs. They are quarterbacked by former USC and Pitt QB Kedon Slovis, and he brings a level of experience to this BYU offense that has proved valuable through four games. 

While BYU has had a great start to their season, each week their lines tend to indicate something a bit different than their result. In the opening week of the season, the Cougars faced Sam Houston State, who was making their FBS debut. Yet, they closed as only 19-point favorites after opening up -24, and won the game 14-0. Further, they closed as eight-point underdogs to Arkansas and then nine-point underdogs to Kansas. The way these lines have opened, moved, and closed indicates to me that BYU has been playing better than expected.

On the flip side, Cincinnati closed as a 13.5-point underdog against Oklahoma last week, who had done nothing except assert their dominance on each team they had faced up to that point. I liked Cincinnati in this game in a good get-back spot after falling to Miami Ohio, but ended up staying away. Now, with Cincinnati dropping two straight, I like them even more in a great get-back spot in a game in which it feels like Cincinnati needs to win in order to preserve their season.

To make matters more interesting, this line was sitting up around +3 yesterday, then it got steamed down a whopping five points overnight to now where Cincinnati is a two-point favorite. Cincy being a favorite in Provo, in front of a primetime Friday night crowd, in a game televised on ESPN, is enough to sell me on the Bearcats.

Yet, to sell you even further, 67% of bets are on BYU spread, yet that line keeps moving in the Cougars favor, to the point where I am even currently seeing BYU +2.5 on FanDuel. I snagged -1.5 last night, but if you haven’t yet, get your Bearcats bets in, and let’s cash big on a Friday night. 

Nothing better than waking up with coin in your pocket on a Saturday morning. 

The play: Cincinnati -2