By: William Smythe

With the bulk of the 2023 NCAA Tournament in the rearview, it’s time to examine which programs might be on the verge of some serious “self-questioning” after early exits. We can potentially attribute the frequent upsets to one of the most chaotic seasons in history, yet there exist bona-fide programs which haven’t quite gotten over the hump in March.

Recency bias is certainly in play here, and I acknowledge that. Nonetheless, programs such as Arizona and Purdue haven’t converted successful regular seasons into Final Fours and National Championships in the past decade or so. Let’s dive into the programs with alarming track records in the Big Dance. 

Purdue 

Don’t get me wrong, Purdue shouldn’t be facing blue-blood level scrutiny. They made the Elite Eight in 2019, won the Big Ten Championship this season and held the no. 1 ranking for a healthy party of the year. However, they’ve also advanced to the Elite Eight only once in the past six years – all in which Matt Painter’s crew held a five seed or below. 

Prior to the Fairleigh Dickinson loss, the three-seeded Boilermakers ultimately fell in 2022 to fifteenth-seeded St. Peter’s in the Sweet Sixteen; sure, the Peacocks defeated no. 2 Kentucky and no. 7 Murray State beforehand, but you’re telling me a combination of 7’4 Zach Edey and 6’10 Trevion Williams couldn’t find a way to defeat a vastly undersized mid major?

Losses to no. 13 North Texas (2021) and no. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock (2016) only make the Boilermakers’ case worse. The regular season dominance is there, but a pattern of early exits – including a brutal Sweet 16 loss to St. Peter’s – has officially put the pressure on Painter to perform in March. 

Arizona

Two tournament wins in the last two seasons isn’t exactly ideal for Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats won the Pac-12 regular season title in 2022 and gained tournament titles in 2022 and 2023 – yet to no avail. Arizona has alternated between Sweet 16 appearances and first round exits beginning in 2016, with the most recent defeat to 15 seed Princeton a perpetuation of the trend. Regular season success, like Purdue, is expected (and achieved) in Tucson. 

The 31-3 Wildcats – ranked second in the AP Poll last season – nearly fell to ninth-seeded TCU in the second round and fell by 12 to no. 5 Houston in the Sweet 16. Arguably the best team assembled in Tucson in the 21st century, Lloyd’s crew looked nothing like the part of their regular season self.

A 21-point loss in 2018 to 13 seed Buffalo now gives Arizona two first-round losses to double-digit seeds in the past five years.

Tennessee

Rick Barnes officially has a problem on his hands. The fourth-seeded Vols arguably had their best chance to reach the program’s first Elite Eight since 2010, yet the unexpected Owls from Florida Atlantic took it to Tennessee in Madison Square Garden.

The Vols held a 3 seed last season and lost to eleventh-seeded Michigan in the second round. This wouldn’t be their second loss as a 3 to an 11 – remember the Loyola-Chicago game in 2018?

In 2020, 12 seed Oregon State trounced fifth-seeded Tennessee and proceeded to make the Elite Eight. The only “bright spot” in recent years was the Vols’ Sweet 16 battle against Purdue in 2019, a high-scoring affair that nearly saw them advance to take on top-seeded Virginia in the Elite Eight.

Barnes has the talent and the pedigree in regular season play, yet his teams have encountered early disappointment in the Big Dance. 

Virginia

As a Virginia fan, it pains me to put us here. The National Championship in 2019 has salvaged a program that is desperate for a win in March – having lost back-to-back first round games to a 13 seed. The last second heave from JP Pegues is perhaps a reminder of where Virginia is heading in the post-championship hangover era.

In three out of the last four years that they’ve reached the Big Dance, the Cavaliers have fallen in the first round to the likes of Ohio, Furman, and of course, UMBC. 

This team needs to taste victory again. The 2022-23 squad gained a share of the ACC regular season title, knocking off Baylor, Michigan, Duke and Illinois along the way; nonetheless, a poor offensive outing and an unbelievable gaffe in the final seconds squandered an opportunity for a run in March.

I don’t believe that this program is doomed, nor do I believe that the national championship year was a fluke. However, another loss to a double-digit seed may prove fatal. 

Others up for consideration: Indiana (no Elite Eights since 2002), Alabama (disappointment when highly seeded)