By: George Ahearn

In our eight games that make up the Sweet 16, each one has a team considered the underdog. Whether it’s a 10-point underdog like Princeton against Creighton, or a 1.5 point underdog in Gonzaga against UCLA. Whatever the “line” is, there will be a team seen by most as the favorite to advance.

Before we see these results truly unfold, let’s size up each matchup and discuss the chance of each underdog to pull off the upsets that make March Madness so special. 

*Upset ability will be marked on a scale of 1-5

1- not a chance

2- if all goes well

3- wouldn’t be surprised

4- good chance

5- I think they will win

No. 5 SDSU v. No. 1 Alabama (SDSU +7.5)

Beating Alabama is a tall task for any team in the tournament, but especially an Aztecs team that averages 10 less points a game at seven compared to Alabama’s 81. That being said, the chance for San Diego State to pull off the upset lies in their physicality.

In the Aztecs’ second-round matchup against Furman, they held the Paladins to 52 points on 32% shooting en route to a dominant 75-52 win. In four of Alabama’s five losses, they have failed to score 70 points. The only loss in which they went over 70 points was in the terrific, early-season shootout against the ‘Zags in which they fell, 90-100.

The Aztecs don’t have the star power, they don’t have the scoring, and they don’t have anyone of Brandon Miller’s caliber. Yet, they do have the physicality, the upperclassmen (Matt Bradley and Nathan Mensah are seniors), and the will to make this game interesting.

Upset ability: 2

No. 15 Princeton v. No. 6 Creighton (Princeton +10)

If it wasn’t for Fairleigh Dickinson’s incredible upset of Purdue – the second ever 16 over 1 upset – Mitch Henderson’s Tigers would be the Cinderella story of the tournament. Princeton has been playing their best ball of the season, and their utter domination of seven seed Mizzou opened the public’s eyes about the Tigers being a legitimate threat.

However – in order to topple Creighton – their offense will have to be firing like a well-oiled machine, even more so than in their victory against Mizzou. The Bluejays come into this game riding high from behind the arc, so the first step for the Tigers will be slowing down the three-ball – a task easier said than done. On top of this, limiting the immense impact of Ryan Kalkbrenner inside is key for Princeton. The Big East Defensive Player of the Year dictates the energy for the Bluejays; so, for the Tigers to win, limiting Kalkbrenner is critical.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, I see this finally being the matchup where the slipper does not fit… 

Upset ability: 1

No. 9 FAU v. No. 4 Tennessee (FAU +5.5)

After Florida Atlantic’s escape of FDU, it feels like everyone has chalked Tennessee into the Elite Eight. However, I believe this matchup to be much more competitive than expected. People forget the condition of Tennessee entering this tournament. They lost two of their last three before the tournament – including an SEC quarterfinal loss to Mizzou – and lost starting point guard Zakai Zeigler for the season with a torn ACL. The domination of Duke clearly demonstrates their ability to win big games without Zeigler, yet the Owls are not to be overlooked.

Vegas (easy way of saying who makes the lines) loves FAU. They were only one-point underdogs to the American champions in Memphis, and then closed as 17-point favorites against FDU – only six less than one-seed Purdue.

Tennessee has vulnerabilities, and if FAU can play good defense and knock down the three-ball, they have a real chance of advancing to their first Elite Eight in program history. 

Upset ability: 3

No. 7 Michigan State v. No. 3 Kansas State (K-State +1.5)

In an article that’s focusing on underdogs, this game leaves much interpretation up to the viewer of who is truly the underdog in this matchup. In almost any scenario, a seven seed matching up against a three seed in the Sweet 16 would always be considered the underdog. However, this is not the case.

The Spartans are 1.5 point favorites over fan-favorite – three seed Kansas State. However, for all intents and purposes, we will consider the Spartans the ‘dawgs in this matchup. Tom Izzo is coaching in his 15^th Sweet 16 appearance in only 28 seasons as the leader of Sparty. On the other side, we have a first-time head coach in Jerome Tang – who has led the Wildcats to new heights in his first year at the helm.

The key for the Spartans will be slowing down Markquis Nowell. The “little guy” electrified his team against Kentucky with jaw-dropping play after jaw-dropping play. If the Spartans want to win, it starts with slowing down the Kansas State floor general. Thankfully for Izzo, he has his own star -senior guard Tyson Walker.

Expect a high-octane matchup in The Garden to kick off the Sweet 16.

Upset ability: 5

No. 5 Miami v No. 1 Houston (Miami +7)

Beating this Houston team, with this level of elite guard play and bruising forces down low, is going to take some serious fight and some serious juice. Thankfully for the ‘Canes, they actually matchup against Houston better than most teams in the nation.

Houston is led by veteran guards Marcus Sasser, Jamal Shead, and Tramon Mark – a trio most opponents cannot touch. However, the ‘Canes have a slew of guards just as talented, with ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong as well as Nijel Pack and Jordan Miller. Miami also has the force inside to neutralize the impact of J’Wan Roberts and Jarace Roberts with Norchad Omier – a sophomore averaging 13 points and 10 rebounds a game. Also, they have the legendary coach to match up with Kelvin Sampson, as the always-underrated Jim Laranaga has the ‘Canes back in the second weekend for the second consecutive year.

Miami matches up well against the Cougars; however, I still see the upset chance as slim. It feels like Houston is Miami, only better. However, if Houston comes out slow similarly to their game against Auburn, the ‘Canes may be able to jump on them early and ride their guard play to a win. However, everything will have to go right for Miami in this one.

Upset ability: 2

No. 3 Xavier v. No. 2 Texas (Xavier +4)

Texas has been playing with as much confidence as any team in the nation. They rolled through the Big 12 tournament and decimated a KU squad in the Big 12 title game. This leaves a daunting task for a Musketeer team that has faced two double-digit seeds in Kennesaw State and Pitt. Yet, I would almost guarantee Sean Miller has his team fully believing that they can topple the Longhorns.

Texas can beat you in a variety of different ways. They have the stellar guard play with Marcus Carr and the elusive Sir’Jabari Rice. They have the experienced midrange assassin Timmy Allen. Then, they have the rim runners in Christian Bishop and Dylan Disu that can win them games as well.

However, Xavier possesses much of this versatility. They have tremendous guard play with Colby Jones and Souley Boum, experienced wing play with Jerome Hunter, and a big body down low with former Hawkeye Jack Nunge.

This game is going to be fantastic, and I feel it’s the most overlooked matchup of the Sweet 16. People are counting Xavier out due to their weak matchups in the first weekend, but their utter annihilation of Pitt should not be disregarded. Expect a barn burner in Kansas City on Friday. 

Upset ability: 4

No. 8 Arkansas v. No. 4 UConn (Arkansas +4)

We just saw the Razorbacks pull off the upset against Kansas, so surely they can repeat against UConn, right? Yet, it is not as simple as that. Arkansas snuck by a KU team that lost floor general Dajuan Harris for a majority of the game (in which he returned, but was banged up) and was without legendary head coach Bill Self. UConn at the moment, however, is a different beast.

Arkansas relies heavily on their guard play, but down low, they are a bit suspect. Adama Sanogo is averaging 26 ppg in the tournament, and an Arkansas team that continues to find themselves in foul trouble may have no answer for the big fella from Mali. If Arkansas is to upset the Huskies, they need to stay out of foul trouble and rely on their freakish athleticism, especially in their backcourt. Top recruits Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black were very quiet in their win over KU – combining for only 4 points.

If the Razorbacks are to pull off the upset, they will need their star freshmen to shine. Also, after watching Jordan Walsh’s defense on Jalen Wilson, Coach Musselman will likely throw him on whichever wing is hot for the Huskies. Another great game is in store for the fans when these two tip off in Vegas. 

Upset ability: 3

No. 3 Gonzaga v. No. 2 UCLA (Gonzaga +1.5)

Whoooof. I’m out of breath just thinking about who will win this game. In a rematch of the 2021 Final Four – in which the ‘Zags won on a Jalen Suggs heave from deep – the Bruins and ‘Zags are set up for another all-time classic. These two teams have very different play styles. UCLA wants to slow the tempo, while the ‘Zags want to up the pace. The pace of play will be the deciding factor in this matchup.

In the ‘Zags favor, UCLA big man Adem Bona is questionable, which would alleviate the defensive intensity on Bulldogs star Drew Timme. If the Bulldogs are to pull off the “upset,” they will need others to step up outside of Timme. While “Timme time” has been the story of the tournament, the offensive prowess of Julian Strawther must shine as well as the defensive intensity of senior Anton Watson – who you can expect to be tied to the hip of Bruins star Jaime Jaquez Jr. Watson is the key that starts the car for the ‘Zags, as other Bulldogs have publicly shared their frustration towards the lack of credit Watson receives in their success.

In the third matchup all-time between the duos of Timme/Watson and Campbell/Jaquez, expect a thriller as these two teams have unexpected history.

Upset ability: 4