By: William Smythe

It’s finally here. With one day of play-ins already in the rearview, the Big Dance is shaping up to surprise in arguably the most unpredictable year of CBB in recent history. No one-seed is invincible – despite overall no. 1 Alabama’s recent dominance – and the 12/13 line is one of the strongest collections of mid-majors we’ve seen.

Could this be the year of a St. Peter’s or 2011 VCU? 

Before chaos ensues, let’s break down some of the key narratives/matchups for the Round of 64. 

Providence’s Bryce Hopkins takes on his old team

I’m sure Coach Cal wasn’t too enthused when he saw the draw on Sunday. Despite the relative ease of the ‘Cats schedule – if they are to sneak by eleven-seed Providence – he’ll have to go through a former player – Friar forward Bryce Hopkins (16.1 ppg).

The first-team All-Big East selection transferred from Kentucky in the off-season – having averaged 2.1 points in Lexington. In 2022-23, Hopkins excelled under Coach Ed Cooley and helped the Friars gain a foothold in the top-25, even despite their recent struggles. 

This could go either way. Kentucky’s Jacob Toppin (and likely center Oscar Tshiebwe) have seen plenty of Hopkins’ game and may know exactly what it takes to limit his production; on the other hand, the Providence star will certainly be looking for revenge. Such a narrative can transcend a “bad” matchup, and I’m leaning towards a mammoth outing from Hopkins and a Round of 32 appearance for the Friars.

Regardless, expect plenty of TV coverage tailored towards the clash of familiar foes. 

Arkansas-Illinois winner is a nightmare for Kansas

Instead of splitting the mid-major matchup of Memphis-FAU, the committee pit the SEC’s Arkansas and the Big Ten’s Illinois against each other in a must-see matchup in Des Moines. These teams – especially the ‘Hogs – have fallen far short of expectations in their respective conferences, yet the tournament benefits those seeking second chances.

Arkansas’ freshmen – guards Nick Smith Jr. (14.0 ppg), Anthony Black (12.8 ppg) and Jordan Walsh (7.2 ppg) – have kept the ‘Hogs afloat; however, this team has lost four of its last five and haven’t won a ranked matchup since Jan. 4. 

Illinois is in a similar boat. The Fighting Illini have lost three of their last four but also boast some impressive wins – over then-no. 2 Texas, then-no. 8 UCLA and then-no. 21 Northwestern. Paced by Texas Tech transfer Terrence Shannon (17.1 ppg) and Baylor addition Matthew Mayer (12.8 ppg), Brad Underwood’s crew has some March experience and isn’t exactly the draw that Arkansas hoped for.

Nonetheless, the Illini have lost freshman Skyy Clark to the transfer portal but will desperately need the play of freshman point guard Jayden Epps – who recently suffered from a minor concussion. 

No 8/9 matchup is more interesting than this one. Thanks to the improved play of Smith Jr. and a backcourt that could overwhelm the Illini, I’m giving the ‘Hogs the advantage here. No. 1 seed Kansas will have to fear Eric Musselman’s team, especially with Arkansas’ Elite Eight finishes in 2021 and 2022.

The committee knew what they were doing with Duke-ORU

Despite winning the ACC Tournament, the committee rewarded the Blue Devils with a five-seed and a date against a former Cinderella – Max Abmas’ Golden Eagles. Now a household name, Oral Roberts absolutely ran through their competition – going 16-0 in the Summit League – and finished the season with a 30-4 overall record.

Three of their four losses were to tournament teams, and the Golden Eagles haven’t tasted defeat since Jan. 9 against New Mexico. Combine the pure scoring ability of Abmas (22.2 ppg) with the 7’5 rim presence of Cal transfer Connor Vanover (12.9 ppg), and you have the recipe for a run in March.

Duke, however, is currently playing at the level of a two or three-seed. The Blue Devils have put together a nine-game winning streak and looked the part of a “normal” Duke roster after a dominating performance in the ACC Tournament. Junior guard Jeremy Roach (13.3 ppg) – who will likely be tasked with slowing Abmas down – has caught fire as of late, while freshman center Kyle Filipowski (15.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg) can stretch the floor and bang it down low.

Luckily for Duke, Filipowski and fellow seven-foot freshman Dereck Lively II can neutralize Vanover offensively, yet the Dukies may have to pivot from the paint on the offensive side of things.

Give me Duke to advance, yet know that Abmas and company will put up a fight. A rare W from the committee to put together such a matchup. 

Beware Drake, Kent St.

Miami’s fate is largely contingent on the health of center Norchad Omier (14.0 ppg). If the big man from Nicaragua can’t go – or is significantly slowed by injury – the Drake Bulldogs could very well play the underdog role as the twelve-seed in the Midwest.

With wins over tournament teams Louisiana and Miss. St., there’s at least reason to believe that the Bulldogs can hang with the ACC co-champs. Sophomore guard Tucker Devries (19.0 ppg) will have to outduel Miami’s Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller, yet the 6’7 scorer has the chops to carry Drake past a Hurricanes team with frontcourt questions. 

Also, who was the last MVC team that played Miami in the tournament? 2018 Loyola Chicago. 

The matchup right below Miami-Drake also catches the eye, as the fourth-seeded Indiana Hoosiers will square off against the MAC champs – Kent St. The Golden Flashes brought no. 1 seed Houston to the brink earlier this season and have won their last six, with a convincing victory over Toledo sending them to the Dance.

Thanks to the dynamic play of senior guard Sincere Carry (17.6 ppg), the Golden Flashes boast a player seemingly born for March – and someone who will have to overcome freshman sensation Jalen Hood-Schifino and First-Team All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.8 ppg).

Indiana is vulnerable in this spot. If Hood-Schifino struggles to make shots – and if the Golden Flashes double TJD and keep him relatively quiet – Kent State will advance.

Other notes:

• Vermont a no. 15 seed upset pick to monitor, even with Marquette’s recent success
• VCU-St. Mary’s will be a defensive battle, first to 50
• Iona’s Rick Pitino needs to focus on his team before St. John’s, especially with a former Husky on his coaching staff
• Texas A&M-Penn State is a matchup of two teams who deserved a higher seed