By: George Ahearn

There are 13 total days until the calendar flips to March, meaning only one thing- it’s about the time where various Final Four combinations endlessly swirl around my head until the tournament unfolds. The turmoil we’ve seen within our AP top-ten has me hopeful for one of the more chaotic tournaments in recent memory.

This expected chaos makes me believe there is value to be had with some longshot Final Four futures. The madness that is the tournament creates value in some longshot futures for teams to make the Final Four, and this year’s setting up to deliver at least one unforeseen team to ride their momentum all the way to Houston.

So, who are the teams to throw a little cheddar on  to make that improbable run to the Final Four?

*Odds by Fanduel*

Houston Cougars: +130

To be completely honest, this is not a value bet. +130 is horrendous odds for a team to make the Final Four –  as there is an abundance of variables that play into a team making the Final Four – and some of these variables are out of a team’s control.

+130 for a team to win four straight games when every team is playing to extend their season is hard to swallow; yet, it is hard to imagine a world in which Houston does not reach the Final Four. Heading in the direction of earning the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, the Cougars will be backed by heavy fan presence throughout the tournament.

On top of this, the Cougars are the best defensive team in the nation – allowing only 55 points per game to opposing teams and holding the nation’s highest point differential at +20.5. They have experience with Marcus Sasser, Jamal Shead and Tramon Mark, as well as one of the best freshmen in the nation in Jarace Walker.

Led by a legendary coach in Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars will be playing in San Antonio, and I am willing to eat the +130 and take them to make the Final Four.

Creighton Blue Jays: +550

Creighton was a team that came into the season with serious national title aspirations. However, a midseason slump saw the Blue Jays fall out of people’s Final Four predictions and more into the bubble conversation.

Fortunately, the Blue Jays never gave up on themselves and have risen all the way back into the AP top-20 where they belong. The best time to get in on the Blue Jays has passed, as their slump sent their odds into outer space.

Yet, the resilience they have already displayed this season is more than encouraging, and that resilience will be needed in March. They have a starting five with little weaknesses, and one that complements each other greatly. Their starting five is one of the most complete in the nation, with all five players averaging double figures. They have experience at the point guard position with Ryan Nembhard, a force inside in (7’1”, 256 lbs) Ryan Kalkbrenner, steady wing play from Arthur Kaluma and Trey Alexander and lights-out shooting from South Dakota State transfer Baylor Scheierman.

On top of this talent, they are led by long-tenured head coach Greg McDermott – who has plenty of tournament experience and success. This Blue Jays team has the making of a national title contender, and at +550 they are my favorite value pick to make it to the Final Four.

I even took the Blue Jays at +1000 the other week.

TCU Horned Frogs+ 650

As popular college basketball analyst Jon Rothstein recently tweeted, peak TCU is the best team in the Big 12, and I wholeheartedly agree.

The Horned Frogs are in the midst of a slump, having lost five of their last six, but this slump is easily explainable. The ‘Frogs have been without their two most impactful players – big man (6’11”, 262 lbs) Eddie Lampkin and the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year – Mike Miles Jr. While Lampkin defines who TCU is on the court, this team is essentially incapable of winning without Miles Jr.

To put into perspective the impact Miles has, this same TCU team without him lost a home game early in the season to Northwestern State. With Miles and Lampkin on the court, this team can – and will – beat any team in the nation.

Tenacious in the open court and prone to turning the other team over, they thrive on other team’s weaknesses, and this ability leads me to love the value in +650 for the Horned Frogs to make the Final Four. If you want to bet the Frogs, I would place it now before the return of these two stars has TCU trending upwards.

Gonzaga Bulldogs: +850

I’m sure the majority of you are tired of people telling you to take Gonzaga to win it all, just for them to let you down year after year. Yet, this year, it seems nobody is talking about the ‘Zags – a sentiment that feels dangerous when dealing with a Drew Timme and Mark Few-led team.

The ‘Zags score the ball at the highest clip in the nation – averaging 86.3 points per game (1st in the nation) with a 52% field goal percentage (also 1st in the nation). These offensive numbers are staggering, yet it seems the public is discounting the ‘Zags. Maybe it was them suffering their first home loss since 2018 to a sneaky good Loyola Marymount team, or maybe it’s the idea that people have seen better Gonzaga teams come up short.

Regardless, I refuse to be one of the fools to count the ‘Zags out, and I will ride this +850 value of a Mark Few-coached team to make the Final Four.

While people typically choose Gonzaga due to their regular season dominance, this year I believe the ‘Zags will be a beneficiary of their in-season stumbles, and this adversity will help them reach Houston.

Arkansas: +1500

The Razorbacks have had an up and down season, and a team that entered the season as an AP top-10 team is currently unranked and flirting with the bubble. However, the Razorbacks have a top-tier roster, as two of the more talented freshmen in the nation – Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr – play for Eric Musselman’s squad.

Smith Jr. recently made his return to the court after nursing a knee injury, and his reintegration into this Razorbacks team could see them return to the dominance fans were expecting entering the season.

Over the last two seasons, Musselman has led the Razorback to back-to-back Elite Eights, and last year’s squad pulled off an incredible upset in the Sweet 16 against No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga. Musselman clearly understands what it takes to win in March, and the last two years he has exceeded expectations.

On top of this coaching and freshman talent, the Razorbacks leading scorer – Ricky Council – has shades of J.D. Notae – the legendary Razorback that fans fell in love with and a player who was remembered for his clutch gene. The combination of stellar coaching, exciting freshmen and a steady veteran makes the +1500 value of the Razorbacks too juicy to ignore.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: +2500

The gritty, grind-it-out Scarlet Knights at +2500 odds is simply too good of a value. Some of you may believe that my love for the Scarlet Knights is lunacy, but the love is deserved.

Their top 5 scorers – Cliff Omoruyi, Cam Spencer, Aundre Hyatt, Caleb McConnell and Paul Mulcahy – have experience that quite possibly no other tournament team will be able to match. Omoruyi is a junior, Spencer a senior, Hyatt a junior, McConnell a 5th year and Mulcahy a senior. A team with this experience and this level of desire to put together a meaningful run in their last season together will pay dividends in March. I cannot explain this idea thoroughly, but, if you watch college basketball, you understand why this level of experience can translate to wins.

I cannot wait to see the path in front of the Scarlet Knights once tournament time comes, and I wholeheartedly expect them to pull off some upsets.

West Virginia Mountaineers: +3500

West Virginia currently resides as one of bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s “last four byes” and firmly sit on the bubble, making the thought of the Mountaineers venturing to Houston for this year’s Final Four outrageous.

However, we are looking for value, and there is value with West Virginia – not much, but value. First, head coach Bob Huggins is no rookie to the NCAA tournament. Huggins has been to the tournament ten times with the Mountaineers, even reaching one Final Four in 2010.

A shared characteristic of Huggins’ teams is their tenacity on the defensive end of the floor. If they are going to make a Cinderella run, their defense will have to be the accelerator. On top of their defense, they have a balanced scoring attack, with five players averaging double figures. Hall of fame coaching, a balanced offense that can attack you from every position and a tenacious defense will be a recipe for disaster for any opponent in March.

The Mountaineers will just need to put all the pieces together every single game. Also, the Mountaineers are shockingly in the top-20 of the Ken Pomerey ratings – a system that is notable for predicting who are the true contenders of the tournament.

The Mountaineers have the ingredients it takes to make the Final Four, and, while it’s still a longshot, +3500 is worth a sprinkle.

Predicting who will be in the Final Four is always an entertaining but nearly impossible task, and hopefully these descriptions can give you insight into the longshot you want to ride all the way to Houston.