By: George Ahearn

It’s never too early to start making predictions for March, and this season – being especially keen to the upset – makes it all the more difficult, yet nonetheless entertaining. Florida’s upset of No. 2 Tennessee yesterday marks the 10^th time this season a team ranked in the AP top-two has fallen – breaking the previous record with a little under a month to play. 

The Sweet 16 is the “tournament inside the tournament” and is where the quest for the Final Four truly heats up. Where the upset-driven teams typically come to die – or where a team demonstrates their inability to get over the hump. The chaos that ensues prior to the Sweet 16 is typically an afterthought once we arrive at our final 16, yet this chaos is what makes it so difficult to predict who will be playing after the first two rounds.

On top of that, this year’s constant-shifting rankings angle the question of who is truly a contender towards the viewer – making it even more impossible. This year is projected to be one of – if not the most – chaotic tournaments ever. Nonetheless, I am here to tell you who will be playing in the Sweet 16.

And yes, I am going to try and find your Cinderellas. 

Purdue Boilermakers

I think anyone watching college basketball at the moment is aware of Purdue’s dominance this season. The Boilermakers have been the top team in the nation for the majority of the season, and, while this is never a guarantee for a Sweet 16 trip, this undisputed number one overall has something no other team has – the 7’4 Zach Edey. The Purdue big man averages a staggering 22 and 13 a game while tacking on over two blocks per game.

You take this immovable force and pair it with head coach Matt Painter’s experience, and you have a team that is more than capable of reaching at least the Sweet 16.

Houston Cougars

Kelvin Sampson’s team tasted the glory of what would be a national championship when they made an Elite Eight run in last year’s NCAA tournament. Although this was heartbreak for a Cougars team with lofty expectations, they undoubtedly grew from this experience, and it clearly left a hankering in their players’ hearts, with cornerstones Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead returning to play for the Cougars.

Tenacious on both ends of the floor, expect to see the Cougars roll to the Sweet 16. 

Alabama Crimson Tide

‘Bama fans truly are too spoiled, as in a year where their team fell short of expectations on the Gridiron (only winning the Sugar Bowl), they have been blessed with one of the best teams in the nation and a Kevin Durant-esque demi-god in Brandon Miller. The 6’9 freshman averages just under 20 per contest and has all the tools to take over a game – a trait I’m sure will be called upon often come March.

Alabama – when on their game – is unstoppable, as Vanderbilt saw in their 101-44 thumping on Tuesday. There’s a reason ‘Bama is extending Nate Oats for over four million a year, because when this Alabama team is hot, there is no beating them.

Kansas Jayhawks

The defending champs have their eyes set on another national title, and, with the talent they have coupled with a legendary coach in Bill Self, it is more than plausible to assume a repeat. Kansas is led by maybe the best wing in the country in Jalen Wilson Jr., whose play paired with outstanding freshman Gradey Dick makes Kansas absolutely lethal.

Playing in the Big 12 will allow for teams like Kansas to enter the tournament battle-tested and prepared for a grueling run, and this intense conference play along with the experience on their team will certainly lead them to the Sweet 16. They just beat No. 7 Kansas State 90-78, proving they are ready for March.

UCLA Bruins

UCLA has been one of the sneakiest top teams all year, as early season losses to Baylor and Illinois saw them tumble down the rankings. However, the Bruins are the epitome of a Sweet 16 team. Mick Cronin is, and has been, quietly one of the best coaches in the nation since his time at Cincinnati, and has an array of talent and experience on his roster.

The Bruins’ best players – Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell – were both integral parts of the Bruins’ 2021 Final Four squad and last year’s Elite Eight team, and they understand the level of dedication and passion it takes to advance in the tournament. This experience is aided by some youth as well, as they have one of the top freshmen in the nation in Amari Bailey.

This Bruins squad is loaded and poised for another Final Four run. 

Virginia Cavaliers

I recently posted an article about this Cavaliers squad, so if you read that you already have an understanding of why I think this team is poised for a deep run. However – for the new readers – let me enlighten you. The ‘Hoos have all the tools for a Sweet 16 appearance: a weathered head coach, an impenetrable defense, and a fluid offense.

They move the ball better than any other ACC opponent and have a rotation that allows them to play towards their strengths. The depth and experience on this team will carry them to a Sweet 16 birth, and possibly beyond. 

Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns have one of the most talented teams in the nation: Marcus Carr, Timmy Allen, Sir’Jabari Rice, and more. They sit atop the Big 12 – the best conference in the nation – and have done this even while losing head coach Chris Beard midseason.

This steadiness displayed by the Longhorns has to be in large part due to interim head coach Rodney Terry. Terry was an assistant at Texas from 2002-2011, where he learned under legendary coach Rick Barnes before coaching at Fresno State and UTEP. He has spurred the Longhorns into playing their best ball of the season in the face of turmoil. His poise added to an extremely talented Longhorn squad should carry them to the Sweet 16. 

Marquette Golden Eagles

Even though Marquette hasn’t sniffed the Sweet 16 since 2013, this team has some Final Four pedigree. Head coach Shaka Smart put together a subpar tenure at Texas, yet before his UT arrival led VCU to a Final Four appearance. Smart has this year’s Golden Eagles playing their best ball in recent memory.

Led by Kam Jones, Marquette is yet to have a “bad loss” this season, and faced an early-season test when they fell to the Boilermakers on the road, 75-70. The Big East is a quietly grueling conference this year, and Marquette will be prepared for March when the time comes. 

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU is another team that I’ve come on here and given my applause to; since I wrote that article, they have only solidified my belief in them to make the Sweet 16. Last year, the Horned Frogs lost in the Round of 32 in OT to no. 1 seed Arizona but returned almost their entire team. Mike Miles Jr. returning to Fort Worth was the key to keeping this team together, and the momentum they built upon in last year’s tournament has spilled over into this season.

They run in transition effortlessly, and, if you turn the ball over against them, you may as well write your will. Jamie Dixon has his best team since he came to TCU in 2016, and their pace of play will carry them to the Sweet 16. 

Saint Mary’s 

Most people would expect the WCC team I’d have slotted in the Sweet 16 to be Gonzaga, yet the Gaels have been this season’s most impressive team from the sneaky stacked conference. Saint Mary’s is undefeated in conference play, but have yet to play the ‘Zags. The upcoming matchup Saturday between the two will show us more, but they’ve done more than enough to impress.

They play team basketball and their efficiency helps lead them to wins. A balanced scoring attack that has four players averaging double figures is hard to shut down, and this spread attack will apply the pressure to the nation’s best defensive units. It always feels like these types of teams perform in March, and the Gaels have a chance to earn a high seed in this year’s tournament. 

Now, let’s get a little contrarian. Here are your sleeper teams that have what it takes to make a Sweet 16 appearance. 

Creighton Blue Jays

This year’s Blue Jays team entered the season with lofty expectations, as they were ranked top-ten in the preseason AP Poll. Creighton hit an early season skid, dropping six straight – including losses to inferior teams such as Arizona State and Nebraska. Yet, the Jays emphatically bounced-back and have won five straight – including big-time conference wins over Providence and Xavier. They’ve got their swagger back, and that should scare every team in the nation.

Their offense is subtly star-studded, as their whole starting lineup averages double-figures. Between Nembhard, Alexander, Scheierman, Kaluma, and Kalkbrenner? You better hope they don’t show up to play because when they do, this starting five is as good as any in the nation, and they will undoubtedly reveal their preseason potential in March. 

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Rutgers is 15-7 and tied for second in the Big Ten. If you looked at their roster stacked up against the other rosters in the conference, their record and positioning would shock you. A team that lost their best player in Ron Harper Jr. miraculously got better, and that is largely due to their grit.

They’re a team that finds ways to win games, and that’s an intangible trait that carries teams in March. They were able to knock off no. 1 Purdue and have consistently grinded out single-digit wins. Maybe it’s me saying “Rutgers” in the Jersey, dad accent that is selling me, but this team feels destined to make a run.

When picking the sneaky guys, sometimes you’ve got to roll with your gut, and Rutgers feels like a “gut” team. 

Arkansas Razorbacks

The Razorbacks are another squad that was ranked inside the top-ten before the season started, yet they are still struggling to find their footing. They sit as a ten seed in Lunardi’s bracketology at the moment, but with lots of season left I expect them to figure it out before March. Last year, Eric Musselman’s squad upset no. 1 overall seed Gonzaga in the NCAA tournament in the Sweet 16 – proving to the nation that the “Muss Bus” was building something special in Fayetteville.

What he showed in 2022 rewarded him with one of the top freshmen in the nation – Nick Smith Jr. – who has been out all January with a knee injury – but his expected return in February has the ‘Hogs trending upwards. Smith Jr. averaged 12 ppg in just five appearances this season. Watch for this team to gather momentum and make a run come March. 

Boise State Broncos

Boise State has compiled an impressive 18-5 start to their season, and they play in another conference out west that is sneaky competitive as well – the Mountain West. The MWC feels like a conference that will leave the tournament with a Sweet 16 bid, as Boise, SDSU, Nevada, Utah State, and New Mexico have all proved their worth this season.

This competition will prime the Broncos for tournament play and has the ability to fuel them to a Sweet 16 bid. Four double-digit scorers make for a balanced offensive attack and a team capable of stacking some upsets in March. 

VCU Rams

It has been way too long since we saw VCU put together an NCAA tournament run. The Rams sit atop the A10 at the moment, and would most likely need to win the conference to earn a bid to this year’s NCAA tournament; if they do, they could go deep. Mike Rhoades has been quietly building his program in Richmond since taking over in 2017, and this year’s team looks the strongest in his five-year tenure.

The A10 is a conference that always garners gritty, overlooked hoopers, allowing for it to be a consistently competitive conference. We saw this unfold last season as Richmond squeaked into the tournament and defeated Iowa – who was coming off a B10 title.

VCU holds the second-best defense in the conference and they pride themselves on their defensive prowess. Love taking teams to go far who love playing defense, and that’s exactly what VCU is. 

Liberty Flames

Here it is, my 13 or 14 seed who makes it the Sweet 16. There’s a team every year that does this, so, while the prediction may seem silly, there is going to be at least one team on no one’s radar entering the tournament who makes it far, and my bet for this season is the Liberty Flames. On offense, they’re led by lethal scoring threat Darius McGhee – who averages over 20 a game.

Having a player capable of putting up over 20 per game gives you the freedom of letting the play unfold, and allowing your big-time player to make a big time shot is sometimes all that is needed in March. The Flames are my current underdog, and everyone should pay attention before they spoil your bracket. 

The common denominator in these teams is stellar coaching and valued experience. Seems that these characteristics are more important than ever in March, and leads teams far into the tournament.