By: William Smythe

The preseason AP College Basketball poll is never a strong indicator of what the season will hold. Would many – including myself – have predicted Purdue’s dominance and North Carolina’s unprecedentedly brief stint in the top-25 after holding the no. 1 overall ranking? I thought not.

Surprises galore have arisen in the mid-point of another hectic college basketball season, with the blue bloods largely on the ropes and the Big 12 poised for a successful ‘23 campaign. 

If your team brought in a top-10 recruiting class (and you’re not named Alabama, Tennessee or Kansas), chances are you’re disappointed in the way your season is heading. Unfortunately, the stockpiles of talent that several *ahem “historically dominant” programs usually don’t mean all too much in today’s landscape.

The transfer portal – whether you like it or not – is the future for teams who want to climb the ladder quickly.

So, who has shocked us thus far? Who has made us laugh joyously as they have descended rapidly in the rankings, and who looks the part of a real contender despite having no preseason buzz?

The Pleasant Surprises: Tang, Cyclones, Sean Miller?

I’m beating a dead horse here, but Jerome Tang’s Kansas State Wildcats have done nothing but impress in the former Baylor assistant’s first year at the helm. Last week’s mania in Waco and Austin catapulted the Wildcats to a no. 11 ranking in the AP Poll – a spot they wholly deserved after two top-15 wins. 

The storylines are chock-full in Manhattan: Tang defeating his former boss – Baylor’s Scott Drew – on his home court, forward Keyontae Johnson returning to stardom (18.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg) after a scary health incident at Florida last season, and an offense reaching sky-high levels after a 116-point effort at Texas.

Do they have a chance at the Big 12 regular-season title? I think so, even if Kansas looks to be in charge at the moment. 

Biggest Game Ahead: No. 2 Kansas on Tuesday, 1/17

Alongside the Manhattan Miracle-Makers is the Wizard of Otz’s crew – the Iowa State Cyclones. The Big 12’s mid-2010s thorn in the side (Monte Morris and Georges Niang = an elite duo), the Cyclones are back in form after ascending to the no. 14 ranking in the AP Poll – recently gaining key wins over no. 17 TCU and no. 12 Baylor.

Otz’s “Road ‘Dawgs” have a revamped roster led by St. Bonaventure transfers Jaren Holmes (13.1 ppg) and Osun Osunniyi (8.1 ppg) – yet the key here is the defense. 

Questions surrounded the Cyclones after the loss of touted freshman Tyrese Hunter to the portal, yet Otz reloaded offensively and bolstered his team on the defensive end, too. Iowa State has made life increasingly difficult for Big 12 opponents – holding their past four to an average of 59.8 ppg – with the schedule only amping up in the next few weeks – no. 2 Kansas, no. 10 Texas and Kansas State all await the Cyclones. 

Biggest Game Ahead: @ No. 2 Kansas on Saturday, 1/14 (this game is on ESPN+, what a joke)

Now, that’s enough of the Big 12. In short, they’re all really, really good. But the Big East? Also primetime entertainment.

The Big East was Creighton’s or UConn’s to win before the season, yet only until Sean Miller emerged from oblivion. Miller’s return to Xavier has marked a clear improvement for the no. 12 Musketeers in ‘23 – currently tied for first in the Big East with another “from the rafters” team this season – Providence.

The 6-0 Big East clip is an indicator – one – of their defense of the Cintas Center (they haven’t lost there this season), and – two – of an unfathomably good three-point shooting team. 

Every starter – every, single, one – averages at least 40% from three. The backcourt of Souley Boum (17.7 ppg) and Colby Jones (14.4 ppg) makes a case as one of the nation’s best, while forward Jack Nunge (14.7 ppg) and fellow big man Zach Freemantle (14.7 ppg) share the load in the frontcourt as uber-efficient scorers.

This team will go far in March on account of their offense – not their defense. They can run with the best of ‘em and have made Big East defenses look silly thus far.

Biggest Game Ahead: No. 25 Marquette on Sunday, 1/15

The Corner of Blue Blood Shame: Coach Cal, UNC, Indiana

Who shall we start with…Kentucky! In arguably John Calipari’s worst year at Kentucky since the 2020, COVID-shortened 9-16 year, Rupp Arena is no longer a safe place. The ‘Cats just suffered their most painful loss at home since Evansville in 2019 – as the 19.5 point spread in favor of Kentucky couldn’t save them from a 71-68 loss to an 8-8 South Carolina.

The game before – a 26-point blowout loss to Alabama – set the stage for another massive letdown for Big Blue Nation. 

There’s so much wrong with this team, especially when you consider that they have the defending NPOY – center Oscar Tshiebwe – back and averaging 16.0 ppg and 13.1 rpg. Talk about an underwhelming supporting cast and an offense that doesn’t even involve Tshiebwe as much as it should. Desperate three-pointers – assuming that the big man will clean it up at the rim – don’t exactly lead to success.

Those faithful to BBN are already calling for Cal’s head, which poses the question: Will he find a way out of his lifetime contract?

Even if he does, the ‘Cats have the rest of the season to dwell on their future – a miserable-looking one as of late. 

Biggest Game Ahead (to right the ship): @ No. 5 Tennessee on Saturday, 1/14

Arguably the biggest disappointment in the nation, North Carolina has joined the Kentucky ranks as blue bloods-turned-overrated in 2022-23. The Tar Heels are oddly less wounded than the ‘Cats right now, but they squandered a win on the road Tuesday at Virginia and have worrisome losses – Virginia Tech and Pitt are fine teams, but they’re typically far below Carolina’s echelon.

Hope still remains in Chapel Hill because of last season – one in which the Tar Heels played a mediocre regular season yet salvaged a National Championship appearance out of it all. 

They need center Armando Bacot (17.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg) back from an ankle injury that he suffered against the Cavaliers – even if freshman Jalen Washington starred in his absence. Replacing Bacot is close to impossible in an era where dominant big men are valued like none other. The guards, moreover – juniors Caleb Love and R.J. Davis – have a case of three-ball dependency and make head-scratching plays despite their talent. 

A very manageable next five games in the ACC may help Carolina build their momentum, but they better be careful.

Biggest Game Ahead: @ Syracuse on Tuesday, 1/24

Brutal would be an understatement when describing Indiana’s play over the past few weeks. Mike Woodson’s squad just did the impossible (with the parity of the Big Ten) by dropping three straight games to unranked opponents – Iowa, Northwestern and Penn State all but destroyed the Hoosiers’ season.

They haven’t won a Power Five contest since Nebraska on December 7. 

That’s worse than I initially thought. 

The loss to Northwestern – one which occurred at the hallowed Assembly Hall – reverberated throughout Bloomington unlike any other this season. The Wildcats are a surprise themselves this season – sitting at 12-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big Ten – but the Hoosiers’ defeat makes the rest of the conference slate seem like climbing up Mount Doom.

Forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (17.4 ppg) and freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino (13.2 ppg) do enough to keep Indiana in most games, but there’s just not enough help around them.

I feel for Indiana nation. You’re not like the other blue-bloods – yes, I called you a blue-blood – so I’m sympathetic to your cause. However, you can’t lose back-to-back games to Northwestern and Penn State.

Biggest Game Ahead: No. 18 Wisconsin on Saturday, 1/14