By: Luke Stone

The ACC basketball picture is starting to take shape, and it looks exactly as most pundits thought it would. North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia are among the best teams in college basketball, and Boston College and Pitt are among the worst. But in the middle are several surprises that merit further analysis. Here are my inaugural ACC power rankings, along with the tiers in which they fall.

Tier 1 – Contenders

1. Virginia Cavaliers (4-0)

Bennett Ball is back! While North Carolina still holds the top spot in the AP poll, Virginia has looked the better team in its first four games. After expected wins against NC Central and Monmouth to open their campaign, Virginia rolled into the Continental Tire Main Event and defeated no. 7 Baylor 86-79 and outlasted no. 16 Illinois 70-61. The Cavaliers boast the nation’s fourth-highest three point shooting percentage (46.9%) and the tenth-best assist to turnover ratio (1.8) in the land.

Senior Armaan Franklin leads Virginia in scoring, but junior Reece Beekman is the team’s heart and soul. Beekman held his own against Baylor freshman phenom Keyonte George and shut down Illinois standout Terrence Shannon Jr. The Cavaliers were so impressive in Vegas that they vaulted from 16th in the AP poll to 5th. Next Tuesday’s road test against Hunter Dickinson and Michigan in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge will indicate whether this electrifying start is an aberration or a sign that Virginia is back among college basketball’s elite.

2. North Carolina Tar Heels (4-0)

The defending national runners-up (if any fanbase can make that a thing, it would be North Carolina) are off to a much less convincing 4-0 start. They were tied with UNC-Wilmington at the under-eight timeout in their season opener, trailed Charleston 50-45 at halftime, beat Gardner-Webb by a mere six points, and had a 19 point halftime over JMU trimmed to nine in the second.

Most alarming for the Tar Heels? Their 28.3% mark from beyond the arc. That number has to improve if Carolina wants to remain the team to beat in the ACC. Most reassuring for the Tar Heels? Senior forward Armando Bacot followed up a 10-point, two of nine FG performance against Gardner-Webb with a vintage 19-point, 23 rebound domination against JMU.

3. Duke Blue Devils (4-1)

Duke seems to be as good as it’s always been under first-year head coach Jon Scheyer. They’ve won anticlimactic home snoozefests against Jacksonville, USC Upstate, Delaware, and Bellarmine and lost 69-64 against no. 3 Kansas in the Champions Classic. The formula seems to be the same as it’s always been, too.

They lost five stars Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams, AJ Griffin, Wendell Moore Jr., and Trevor Keels and replaced them with five stars Dereck Lively II, Dariq Whitehead, Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, and Mark Mitchell. Like with most Duke teams, it’s too early to tell whether this is a collection of five stars built to lose in the first round or lose in the Final Four. So far, they’ve done what they’re supposed to do and are just about co-equal with Virginia and North Carolina.

Tier 2 – Scrappy Spoilers

4. Miami Hurricanes (5-1)

The biggest surprise of last year’s Elite Eight is off to a respectable start. Led by somehow-still-a-junior guard Isaiah Wong (15.2 PPG, 4 RPG, 4 APG), the Hurricanes cruised in their first three cupcakes of the season before turning in an impressive ten-point win against Providence in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic at Mohegan Sun.

While they fell in the final to an overachieving no. 24 Maryland, they’ve got a couple more cupcakes to catch their breath before facing off with Rutgers in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Kansas State transfer Nijel Pack’s impact has been limited so far (12.5 PPG), but there’s plenty of time for the Big 12’s Most Improved Player from a season ago to come into his own under Jim Larrañaga.

5. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-1)

To any Virginia, Duke, or North Carolina fans who hoped that the Hokies might recede into ACC obscurity, Virginia Tech head coach Mike Young would not like to apologize. Last year’s leading scorers Keve Aluma and Justyn Mutts are gone, but sophomore Sean Pedulla (17.5 PPG) and super senior and Wright State transfer Grant Basile (16.3 PPG) have more than filled the void. Is this year’s Virginia Tech squad as good as last year’s? Perhaps. We’ll find out next Saturday when ACC play (kind of) opens, as the Hokies will welcome top-ranked North Carolina to Blacksburg.

Tier 3 – Mike Brey Bubble Watch Extravaganza

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0)

Is Notre Dame good? No. Are they bad? Absolutely not. Notre Dame being on the bubble for Selection Sunday is starting to become one of my favorite March fixtures. They are the Iowa Hawkeyes of college basketball. Sometimes they’ll be notably good, most of the time they’ll be frisky. But they have an institution of a man at head coach who will never ever let them fall too far out of the mix, provided that the “mix” is the Outback Bowl/a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 23 year-old Nate Laszewski is back, America. And he’s ready to bow out in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

Tier 4 – Wait and See

7. NC State Wolfpack (4-1)

The Wolfpack play an incredibly chaotic brand of basketball. Head coach Kevin Keatts’s offense is as simple as getting the ball in the hands of sophomore Terquavion Smith (19.0 PPG) and senior Jarkel Joiner (17.0 PPG) and letting the dynamic scorers go to work. Sometimes the Wolfpack’s frenzied pace results in frustratingly contested jump shots early in the shot clock, but other times it yields easy looks inside.

NC State held their own with defending national champion Kansas in the first round of the Battle 4 Atlantis, but their unwillingness to defend and feast-or-famine offense make me hesitant to bump them up a tier. After all, it’s called the Mike Brey Bubble Watch Extravaganza, not the Kevin Keatts one.

8. Florida State Seminoles (1-5)

Ok. I know they’re 1-5. I know they lost to Stetson, UCF and Troy. I know they shoot 68.2% from the line as a team. But I also know that it’s a Leonard Hamilton team. UCF transfer Darin Green Jr. has made an immediate impact as a scorer and a shooter with 13.6 PPG. Returning “guards” (they’re all 6’5” or taller) Caleb Mills, Cam’ron Fletcher, and Matthew Cleveland are all averaging double figures. As you’ll see, this is a bad tier of teams, so I have no qualms about buying Florida State stock higher than most would right now.

Post 17-point loss to Siena update: I give up. Send them down to tier 6. 

9. Syracuse Orange (3-2)

I don’t know. They have Joe Girard? At the no. 9 spot, the question you’re making me answer is “are they better than Wake, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Boston College, and Pitt?” The answer is yes – I think. No idea. Jim Boeheim! Yay!

10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-1)

The Deacs lost to Loyola Marymount, but they’ve got a good coach in Steve Forbes. To be honest, they’re probably just benefitting from recency bias, given how good Alondes Williams and Jake LaRavia were for them last year. A road trip to Wisconsin will be more telling than any game they will have played before then.

Tier 5 – Likely Bad

11. Clemson Tigers (4-1)

11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-2)

I’ve paired these teams together because they’re the same program in different jerseys. They’re both football schools historically (although one has far outkicked the other over the past 15 years) and are both content with having fledgling basketball programs. But props to the athletic departments at both schools. Neither of them wants to pay a buyout for a basketball coach, so they’re perfectly fine with making the tournament twice a decade. Maybe this could be one of those years for one of these schools. It probably won’t be, but it’s too early to rule it out.

Tier 6 – Definitely Bad

13. Pittsburgh Panthers (3-3)

The Panthers lost to West Virginia and Michigan by a combined 56 points. Somehow, they’re still better than the other two in this tier.

14. Boston College Eagles (4-2)

Even by Boston College standards this is a bad start to the season. A two-point win against Cornell, a four-point win against Detroit Mercy, a five-point loss to Maine, and a sixteen point drubbing at the hands of Tarleton aren’t exactly inspiring confidence among the Eagles’ five basketball fans. There could be trouble in Chestnut Hill if head coach Earl Grant can’t – just kidding, who cares?!

15. Louisville Cardinals (0-6)

Louisville is bad. And not like Auburn football is “bad.” The Cardinals are the worst Power 5 college basketball team to take the floor this season (other than Cal and Oregon St., according to Ken Pomeroy). Their 2022-23 campaign under head coach Kenny Payne began with one-point losses to Bellarmine, Wright State, and Appalachian State. Facing an unprecedented rut, Louisville packed up shop for a restorative five day trip to Maui for some sunshine, salt air and piña coladas with the little umbrellas in them.

Unfortunately, the vacation also required them to play no. 9 Arkansas, no. 21 Texas Tech and a rather uninspiring Cincinnati, all of whom annihilated the reeling Cardinals by 26, 32 and 19 points, respectively. The only coping mechanism for Louisville fans? More piña coladas with the little umbrellas – and a lot of them. And perhaps after that, a boozed up phone call to Rick Pitino.