By: William Smythe

The AP Poll Committee has some serious decisions to make come Monday. Are we witnessing one of the most chaotic starts to a college basketball season in recent memory? Did three top-10 teams really just fall (in a big way) over the span of three days? Yes, and don’t scratch your eyes, this is really happening. The no. 11 ranked Longhorns, no. 16 Virginia, and no. 19 Illinois captured potentially season-defining victories over the likes of Gonzaga, Baylor and UCLA as David felled the mighty Goliath. Instability is the name of the game, just how we like it. So, should ‘Zags fans doubt their team’s ability to withstand adversity early in the season? Should we consider that Texas – I can’t believe I’m saying this – may be back? We’ll analyze the wild past few days of college basketball and look at the inevitable changes which will take place in the next AP Poll.

No. 2 Gonzaga vs. no. 11 Texas:

If you mess with the Beard, you’ll get the Horns. I don’t imagine anyone foresaw the 93-74 drubbing of the ‘Zags by Texas, even in Austin’s brand new arena which has notably “trapped” sound to enhance home court advantage. I’ll admit, I think that Mark Few’s team may be in serious trouble. Senior forward Drew Timme (20.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg) bears too heavy of a burden on this roster, as it’s clear that the loss of Chet Holmgren has made this frontcourt ever so one-dimensional. What’s odd is that the Bulldogs shot 47.4% from three and were still run out of the gym. That speaks volumes to the pace at which Chris Beard’s Longhorns play, best exemplified by sophomore guard Tyrese Hunter’s 26 points and five three-pointers. 

I hate to jump on the Texas bandwagon because it has wronged me so many times before. The addition of the Iowa State transfer in Hunter, however, combined with the depth that Beard deploys – something Gonzaga could not match – makes this team uniquely dangerous. Thirty-three shots from behind the arc is ABSURD, but hey, you’re not complaining when you’re completing 39.4% of those attempts. Texas will be able to run with anyone considering their high-octane pace of play, and they should challenge both Baylor and Kansas for the Big 12 Crown. What a year it should be for this conference. 

Now, if you’re Gonzaga, you have to play no. 4 Kentucky next, so congratulations! Oddly enough, this is a perfect opportunity for Timme and company to re-establish themselves and get back in the winning column. If Timme can neutralize Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe, the Bulldogs may remain in the top-10. That’s a big if, and it’s highly probable that Few leans on his guards – senior Rasir Bolton and junior Julian Strawther – to pick up Timme’s slack in such a tough matchup.

No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 16 Virginia:

What a win for my Virginia Cavaliers. In the wake of an unimaginable tragedy, Coach Tony Bennett orchestrated a near-perfect performance and secured a victory that this University desperately needed. I’m not going to reference 2019 – it’s just a little too early – but the buzz hasn’t been this palpable in Charlottesville for a long time. Senior guard Armaan Franklin took the negative press personally after a horrendous showing from the three-point line last year, finishing the Baylor game with a career-high 26 points. The difference between last year’s roster and this one is night and day. Sixth-man and Ohio transfer Ben Vander Plas continues to excel as a reliable three-point shooter and a stretch big. Junior guard Reece Beekman is, in my opinion, the indisputable glue-guy for the ‘Hoos and the top perimeter defender in the country. Everytime I watch Beekman on his assignment, I can’t help but beam and think of Malcolm Brogdon’s defensive chops less than ten years ago. 

In terms of senior forward Kadin Shedrick, Buy. Stock. Now. Thanks to Jon Rothstein for that off-season tip. Shedrick just showed a side to his game that we’ve never seen before: midrange jumpers. In addition to protecting the rim and thunderously cashing in alley-oops from fifth-year Kihei Clark, Shedrick’s development in the midrange would be massive in terms of preparing for the Cavaliers; is it possible that Coach Bennett will have at least six guys who can reliably shoot the ball in 2022? The two freshmen – guards Isaac McKneely and Ryan Dunn – have also looked impressively comfortable adjusting to the Pack-Line and will likely continue to see more minutes. The comparisons of Dunn to Cavalier legend De’Andre Hunter are well-founded, but we have to wait and see if Dunn contributes in a big way offensively. As Cavalier fans, this win means everything for Charlottesville and for the memory of Devin, D’Sean and Lavel. Virginia played with a heavy heart and delivered an emotional victory for their fellow ‘Hoos.

I don’t want to slight Baylor whatsoever. They’re an incredibly talented group with a freshman – guard Keyonte George – who will strike fear into the hearts of Big 12 defenses throughout the season. Also, Coach Drew’s remarks about the events in Charlottesville and the group prayer after the game give me reason to support the Bears the rest of the way. As for his team’s play, the Bears struggled to contain the ‘Hoos’ three-point barrage which widened the gap to as much as 22 in the second half. They showed some fight, however, clawing back in the final ten minutes and putting the press on the ‘Hoos. George, senior guard Adam Flagler and junior guard LJ Cryer will be the building blocks for an offense that is heavily guard reliant. The problem is the frontcourt, as Drew only received 21 total points from his forwards. This group will continue to gel and improve after the losses of several key contributors from last season.

No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 19 Illinois:

The rebirth of Terrence Shannon Jr. is upon us. At Texas Tech, Shannon filled more of a “slasher” role but nonetheless had an incredible ceiling; at Illinois, Shannon may be scratching the surface of All-American potential. A 29-point and ten-rebound performance – including eight three-pointers – has put the world on notice. Coach Brad Underwood has pulled out all the stops in the transfer portal by landing Shannon and Baylor transfers Matthew Mayer (6.5 ppg) and Dain Dainja (16.3 ppg). This team is nearly unrecognizable from last year’s considering the roster overhaul, but who’s complaining in Champaign? The Illini showed some serious heart after overcoming a 15-point deficit in the second half. Dainja – who tallied 13 points off the bench – and Shannon catalyzed an offense which absolutely blitzed the Bruins in Vegas. 

If you’re a UCLA fan, where were you all? In what world does orange and blue completely fill an arena on the West Coast, not far from Westwood? Mick Cronin was unfortunately not as consistent as A Few Good Men on a rainy Sunday. The Bruins looked the part in the first half, but succumbed to the three-point shooting of Shannon and a pitiful 37.5% clip from the field. Cronin – rightfully so – was unapologetically honest about his team’s performance postgame. Where was five-star freshman Amari Bailey, who tallied only one point in 29 minutes? Senior guard Tyger Campbell and forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. – an All-American candidate – combined for 42 of their team’s 70 points and received little to no help from their fellow starters. Cronin will need more from Bailey and junior guard Jaylen Clark (14.8 ppg) to maximize this team’s potential. 

Perhaps Illinois is far better than we thought initially, or perhaps UCLA is bound to disappoint. I’m in the former’s camp. The Illini have successfully groomed a transfer-laden roster which may benefit from improved three-point shooting and depth – especially if Dainja continues to come off the bench. The ‘Hoos will attempt to grind the game’s pace to a halt when facing the Illini, with junior guard Reece Beekman potentially taking the Shannon (or Skyy Clark) assignment. Virginia’s defense – whose Achilles’ heel is three-pointers – will hope that Shannon reverts to his old ways of slashing against another efficient, Bennett-led unit. With both teams eyeing a spot in the top-10, expect a hard-fought battle on the Strip.