By: George Ahearn

After Tennessee’s 27-13 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, many figured their dismal performance in a game of that magnitude would significantly weaken – if not eliminate – the Vols’ playoff hopes. However, college football is and will always be a source of never-ending unpredictability. Less than two weeks removed from their only defeat of the season, the Volunteers sit in an envious position. Using ESPN’s College Football Playoff Predictor and my own intuition, there are 11 teams who still have a chance to make the playoff. These eleven teams can be broken into three tiers: Tier 1 – the Georgia Bulldogs, Tier 2 – the “finish strong and you’ll be there” tier, and Tier 3 – the “need Armageddon-level chaos to have a chance.” 

Normally, “tiers” imply more than one team, but the Georgia Bulldogs have played themselves into one of their own. Having only one hiccup all season – a game which they still won 26-22 at Mizzou – the ‘Dawgs have proven to be the best team in the nation once again this year. Outright dominance against Oregon in week 1, whom they defeated 49-3, and a defeat of former no. 1 ranked Tennessee has all but solidified the Bulldogs’ place in the playoff. It would require an absolute flounder from Kirby Smart and co. to play themselves out of the playoff, and even a loss to LSU in the SEC Championship game would still likely earn them a spot in the top four come decision day. Tier 2 is where the meat of the true contenders lies.

These teams – granted they take care of business over inferior opponents to close the season – will be wholly in the mix come decision day. Currently, these teams consist of Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Tennessee, Clemson, USC, and LSU. Out of all these tier 2 teams, only one doesn’t control their fate when it comes to playing in their conference’s championship game: Tennessee. Finally, tier 3 consists of teams who are merely grasping onto the edge of the cliff, waiting for the hand of chaos to lift them up and into the playoff: Oregon, Utah, and UNC.  

Now, how do these various playoff contenders relate back to why Tennessee’s loss to Georgia is beneficial for the Volunteers? Tennessee’s resume is one of the most impressive in the nation. Holding a 9-1 record, the Vols have compiled wins over ranked teams such as Alabama, Pitt, Florida and Kentucky, and secured a 40-13 beatdown over current no. 6 LSU in Baton Rouge. Tennessee doesn’t just have good ranked wins, they have DOMINANT ranked wins. Tennessee will finish the season with games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, two opponents they should handle with ease. Then, they’ll restlessly wait to see where the committee will put an 11-1 SEC team – featuring wins in a few of the biggest games of the year and only one loss to the best team in the nation.

Seeing how impressive Tennessee’s resume will end up being, let’s now compare it to the other teams we’ve mentioned today and take an honest look at their chances to make the playoff. Starting in tier 3, North Carolina is the unheralded wild card of the playoff picture. Led by Heisman candidate and freshman Drake Maye, UNC has compiled a 9-1 record; if they were to win out and defeat Clemson in the ACC Championship game, they would garner sincere respect from the committee. A 12-1, Power Five conference champion surely would earn a spot in the college football playoff in any other year. However, UNC’s resume is extremely weak. The ACC is having its worst year in recent memory, and the Tar Heels’ zero ranked wins and 13-point loss at the hands of Notre Dame would presumably keep them out of the top four. Also, their out-of-conference schedule consisted of FAMU, Appalachian State, and Georgia State: unimpressive to say the least. At the end of the day, I firmly believe one-loss Tennessee would make the playoff over one-loss UNC, barring utter domination from UNC in the ACC Championship game.

Next, let’s analyze the myriad PAC-12 teams still in perennial playoff contention whom Tennessee would need to outlast. Currently, the Pac-12 has four teams within the top 15 – making it an unusually strong season for the self-proclaimed Conference of Champions. However, the PAC-12 may have played themselves out of the playoff once again after Oregon suffered defeat to Washington 37-34 Saturday night. Both Oregon and Utah now have two losses, and in the seven-year history of the playoff, we have never seen a two-loss team in the playoff. I highly doubt that this trend will end at the hands of a two-loss PAC-12 conference champion. 

Moving onto tier 2, we’ll stay in the PAC-12 with Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans. USC has the greatest chance to solidify themselves as the top PAC-12 team and make the playoff. Their only loss of the season came at Utah, where they lost a 43-42 heartbreaker. However, the Trojans have their greatest tests of the season looming ahead, with games at no. 16 UCLA and then at no. 18 Notre Dame, and then against whomever they face in the PAC-12 Championship. The Trojans certainly need to remain a one-loss team to keep them in good standing with the committee, as they have no ranked wins up to this point in the season. Ultimately, I believe the PAC-12 will play themselves out of the playoff, and we’ll be looking at the final rankings saying “man, the PAC-12 was really good this year, but I don’t think any of these teams are one of the top four teams in the nation.” 

Now, we’re left with Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Clemson, and LSU, all vying with Tennessee for those final three spots. The one outcome that would undoubtedly ruin Tennessee’s chances at the playoff is if LSU were to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Even with LSU being a two-loss team and having been dominated by Tennessee at home, the winner of the SEC has – and always will – make the playoff. However, LSU is not going to beat Georgia, and although Brian Kelly has done a remarkable job in his first year, it feels silly to even entertain the idea.

Now, what about Clemson? The Tigers finish their season with home games against Miami (FL) and South Carolina, both of which will presumably be wins. If Clemson beats UNC in the ACC title game, they’ll have quite a compelling case, but is it more compelling than that of Tennessee? Clemson had good wins on their resume, but Wake Forest and Syracuse falling out of the Top 25 turned those “good” wins to simply “solid, we expected that result” wins. The ACC as a whole has been so incredibly weak that a one-loss Tennessee truly should get in over a one-loss, conference champion Clemson. However, we’ll keep Clemson on the backburner for now.

Through this long process of elimination, we are left with six teams vying for four spots: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Clemson, and Tennessee. Ohio State and Michigan, both members of the Big 10 East division, will essentially play for a guaranteed playoff spot in “The Game.” The loser of the rivalry will be sitting in a similar position to Tennessee: a one-loss, non-conference champion team who’s been dominant all season. However, Tennessee’s resume would prevail over both of these teams. Tennessee’s wins over LSU and Alabama hold a greater weight than whoever loses the Michigan v. Ohio State game, as that team’s top win on their resume will have come against #11 Penn State.

Then there’s TCU, who controls their own destiny at the moment and has a clear path to the playoff. If TCU is a zero or one-loss Big 12 Champion, they would likely secure a spot over Tennessee. This would lead to Tennessee, Michigan, and Clemson competing for the final spot behind Georgia, Ohio State, and TCU. However, if TCU stumbles and drops the Big 12 championship game, Tennessee’s resume would most likely prevail, and the Vols would get a coveted playoff spot for the first time in program history while Clemson and TCU battle for the fourth spot. 

The true playoff contenders in my head currently sit as Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, Tennessee, and Clemson. Your locks are Georgia and Michigan/Ohio State, and then two spots for three teams. The worst possible scenario for Tennessee is TCU and Clemson winning out and winning their respective conferences. Even if that is the case, the argument between Clemson and Tennessee would be intense. I would still lean Tennessee, and I believe the committee would too. 

While there are still substantial hypotheticals that need to fall into place for the Volunteers to secure a playoff spot, I truly believe that Vols fans will see themselves in at least that no. 4 rank when the committee releases their final CFP rankings. While losing to Georgia may have been devastating, it could have been the best thing to happen to them. They’re going to waltz their way to an 11-1 record while other teams duke it out in conference championship contests. Tennessee has displayed undeniable tenacity and talent throughout the season, and their resume speaks for itself. The Volunteers are determined this year, and I can only imagine the scene in Knoxville when they’re given a chance on the game’s biggest stage in January.