If we thought the playoff competition couldn’t get any tighter, we were wrong. Oregon, I honestly believe you’ve opened Pandora’s box. LSU, I have forgiven you for Brian Kelly’s impersonation of a Southern dude even if a two-loss team in the playoff just seems wrong. TCU, you continue to laugh in my face, and I applaud you for your unbending will. I don’t recall a year that has given college football fans such parity with respect to the CFP. What a season it could have been under the upcoming, 8-team playoff, but the one we currently have may produce an unpredictable sequence of games – that is, if Georgia’s weaknesses against Missouri resurge on the biggest of stages. Nonetheless, we’re knocking on the door of conference championships and have witnessed several schools punch their tickets. 

1. Georgia

The ‘Dawgs shouldn’t have any trouble making the playoff, as long as they control the controllables and take care of business against LSU. I don’t even foresee a world in which a one-loss Georgia misses the College Football Playoff – thanks to their dominating win over no. 5 Tennessee. 

2. Ohio State

This is where things begin to get interesting. If the Buckeyes – who may be without both Miyan Williams and Tre’Veyon Henderson come November 26 – fall to the Wolverines in Columbus, will they still make the playoff? I imagine that C.J. Stroud and company will need to upend their arch-nemesis because of their weak regular season schedule – featuring wins over no. 11 Penn State and no. 18 Notre Dame. They just won’t have the resume over the likes of Tennessee or LSU – if somehow they beat the ‘Dawgs. But, if I were a Buckeye fan, I’d still feel pretty comfortable about my team’s playoff chances.

3. Michigan

Same exact scenario as Ohio State. If Michigan loses to the Buckeyes, their fate will be contingent on the committee valuing their strength of schedule over what could be some combination of LSU, USC and TCU. Essentially, the loser of this matchup will pray that TCU falls in the conference championship – if they don’t fall next week to Baylor or the week after to Iowa State. I don’t see a world in which North Carolina or perhaps even USC makes the playoff even with one-loss and a conference championship under their belt. It’s a seven-team race at the moment, with the Wolverines firmly in the 3-4 range even if they drop one. 

4. TCU

The Frogs just won’t go away, will they? Every week it’s like nails on a chalkboard, like the Steelers eking out that 12-0 record before losing four out of their last five, but Max Duggan and Coach Sonny Dykes are determined to prove that they’re still here. Baylor on the road will be the toughest test for the Horned Frogs before the conference championship game, but Big 12 parity makes me believe that anything could happen in these next two weeks. For all the TCU fans, I apologize in advance for the emotional turmoil you may soon experience. However, just three more wins will seal your first playoff appearance in school history and redeem the wronged 2014 team. If you lose, you’re probably done.

5. Tennessee

I’m beginning to believe that the ‘Vols will be well-situated to land that no. 4 spot. They will be dependent on the rest of TCU’s season and would hope for a rare blowout in the Michigan-Ohio State affair – assuming the committee would boot the loser out of playoff contention. Also, a nightmarish LSU win over Georgia would give the committee a headache, but I still think the ‘Vols carry more weight. They’ve beaten Alabama and no. 6 LSU and suffered their only loss to the foremost contender for the national championship. Don’t worry, Vol fans, just make sure your team handles business against South Carolina in two weeks.

6. LSU

I just can’t wrap my head around the LSU problem. A win over no. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship would be monumental for Brian Kelly’s first year in Baton Rouge, but would it be enough to catapult the Tigers to the CFP? They need a lot of things to happen for that coveted fourth spot to open up – including a TCU loss, Michigan-Ohio State blowout, and potentially a Tennessee hiccup against South Carolina. Regardless of the outcome, the Tigers have put together an incredible season after rallying from a 4-2 record. Who said Brian Kelly can’t coach?

7. USC

Ugh, not the PAC-12 again. After what I saw from Washington in 2016, I don’t think anyone in the playoff committee wants a team from the West in the CFP again. And they DEFINITELY don’t want Notre Dame, but we can thank our lucky stars that there’s no shot of that. The Trojans are exciting to watch on offense thanks to their status as the new Transfer Portal U, but they just lost starting running back Travis Dye to injury and their defense is suspect. Coach Lincoln Riley’s team also has zero top-25 wins but will match up against no. 16 UCLA and no. 18 Notre Dame in the next two weeks. If they can go through these two unscathed and capture the PAC-12 Championship, they’ll have a legitimate chance to snag the last spot from the Big Ten loser or a one-loss TCU.

8. Alabama

Sadly, the Tide are pretty much out of playoff contention. What are we to do without watching them beat the snot out of Notre Dame every year? The Tigers are already in the SEC Championship, while the Crimson Tide will be watching from their couches for the first time since 2019 – actually not that long ago, surprisingly. I’m sure that Saban will be back to full strength next year, pissed off as usual, but rest assured that the Tide have a slim, slim chance at a playoff berth. I would guess Clemson or North Carolina – standing with one-loss each – has the best chance out of the rest to slip into the playoff, but that would be absolute bedlam.